Competing risk and heterogeneity of treatment effect in clinical trials

It has been demonstrated that patients enrolled in clinical trials frequently have a large degree of variation in their baseline risk for the outcome of interest. Thus, some have suggested that clinical trial results should routinely be stratified by outcome risk using risk models, since the summary results may otherwise be misleading. However, variation in competing risk is another dimension of risk heterogeneity that may also underlie treatment effect heterogeneity. Understanding the effects of competing risk heterogeneity may be especially important for pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials, which seek to include traditionally excluded patients, such as the elderly or complex patients with multiple comorbidities. Indeed, the observed effect of an intervention is dependent on the ratio of outcome risk to competing risk, and these risks – which may or may not be correlated – may vary considerably in patients enrolled in a trial. Further, the effects of competing risk on treatment effect heterogeneity can be amplified by even a small degree of treatment related harm. Stratification of trial results along both the competing and the outcome risk dimensions may be necessary if pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials are to provide the clinically useful information their advocates intend

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Vascular Dysfunction Induced in Offspring by Maternal Dietary Fat Involves Altered Arterial Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid Biosynthesis

Nutrition during development affects risk of future cardiovascular disease. Relatively little is known about whether the amount and type of fat in the maternal diet affect vascular function in the offspring. To investigate this, pregnant and lactating rats were fed either 7%(w/w) or 21%(w/w) fat enriched in either18:2n-6, trans fatty acids, saturated fatty acids, or fish oil. Their offspring were fed 4%(w/w) soybean oil from weaning until day 77. Type and amount of maternal dietary fat altered acetylcholine (ACh)-mediated vaso-relaxation in offspring aortae and mesenteric arteries, contingent on sex. Amount, but not type, of maternal dietary fat altered phenylephrine (Pe)-induced vasoconstriction in these arteries. Maternal 21% fat diet decreased 20:4n-6 concentration in offspring aortae. We investigated the role of Δ6 and Δ5 desaturases, showing that their inhibition in aortae and mesenteric arteries reduced vasoconstriction, but not vaso-relaxation, and the synthesis of specific pro-constriction eicosanoids. Removal of the aortic endothelium did not alter the effect of inhibition of Δ6 and Δ5 desaturases on Pe-mediated vasoconstriction. Thus arterial smooth muscle 20:4n-6 biosynthesis de novo appears to be important for Pe-mediated vasoconstriction. Next we studied genes encoding these desaturases, finding that maternal 21% fat reduced Fads2 mRNA expression and increased Fads1 in offspring aortae, indicating dysregulation of 20:4n-6 biosynthesis. Methylation at CpG −394 bp 5′ to the Fads2 transcription start site predicted its expression. This locus was hypermethylated in offspring of dams fed 21% fat. Pe treatment of aortae for 10 minutes increased Fads2, but not Fads1, mRNA expression (76%; P<0.05). This suggests that Fads2 may be an immediate early gene in the response of aortae to Pe. Thus both amount and type of maternal dietary fat induce altered regulation of vascular tone in offspring though differential effects on vaso-relaxation, and persistent changes in vasoconstriction via epigenetic processes controlling arterial polyunsaturated fatty acid biosynthesis

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference

Randomized controlled trial of a coordinated care intervention to improve risk factor control after stroke or transient ischemic attack in the safety net: Secondary stroke prevention by Uniting Community and Chronic care model teams Early to End Disparities (SUCCEED)

BACKGROUND: Recurrent strokes are preventable through awareness and control of risk factors such as hypertension, and through lifestyle changes such as healthier diets, greater physical activity, and smoking cessation. However, vascular risk factor control is frequently poor among stroke survivors, particularly among socio-economically disadvantaged blacks, Latinos and other people of color. The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is an effective framework for multi-component interventions aimed at improving care processes and outcomes for individuals with chronic disease. In addition, community health workers (CHWs) have played an integral role in reducing health disparities; however, their effectiveness in reducing vascular risk among stroke survivors remains unknown. Our objectives are to develop, test, and assess the economic value of a CCM-based intervention using an Advanced Practice Clinician (APC)-CHW team to improve risk factor control after stroke in an under-resourced, racially/ethnically diverse population. METHODS/DESIGN: In this single-blind randomized controlled trial, 516 adults (≥40 years) with an ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack or intracerebral hemorrhage within the prior 90 days are being enrolled at five sites within the Los Angeles County safety-net setting and randomized 1:1 to intervention vs usual care. Participants are excluded if they do not speak English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, or Korean or if they are unable to consent. The intervention includes a minimum of three clinic visits in the healthcare setting, three home visits, and Chronic Disease Self-Management Program group workshops in community venues. The primary outcome is blood pressure (BP) control (systolic BP <130 mmHg) at 1 year. Secondary outcomes include: (1) mean change in systolic BP; (2) control of other vascular risk factors including lipids and hemoglobin A1c, (3) inflammation (C reactive protein [CRP]), (4) medication adherence, (5) lifestyle factors (smoking, diet, and physical activity), (6) estimated relative reduction in risk for recurrent stroke or myocardial infarction (MI), and (7) cost-effectiveness of the intervention versus usual care. DISCUSSION: If this multi-component interdisciplinary intervention is shown to be effective in improving risk factor control after stroke, it may serve as a model that can be used internationally to reduce race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in stroke in resource-constrained settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01763203

Riesgo cardiovascular en estudiantes de medicina del municipio Puerto Padre de Las Tunas

Introduction: cardiovascular diseases are the first cause of death in Cuba; as a result, the identification of cardiovascular risks from early ages allows the implementation of health promotion and prevention strategies to reduce their impact in the futureObjective: to identify the cardiovascular risk in medical students in Puerto Padre Municipality, Las Tunas province.Methods: an observational, descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted. The target group included 545 medical students, 237 of whom were selected by means of a simple random sample. The body mass index and waist-hip ratio were studied. Descriptive statistics was applied.Results: the predominant age group was 18-21 years old (50,2 %). The 51,47 % of the students presented a high waist-hip ratio, 54,02 % a high abdominal circumference, 52,74 % a high body mass index, and in all groups 35,44 % presented blood pressure figures lower than 120/80 mmHg; 39 % had a cardiovascular risk.Conclusions: low percentages of cardiovascular risk were identified in medical students from Puerto Padre Municipality, Las Tunas province, determined by high values of waist-hip index, body mass index and abdominal circumference.Introducción: las enfermedades cardiovasculares constituyen la primera causa de mortalidad en Cuba; por lo cual la identificación de riesgos cardiovasculares desde edades tempranas permite implementar estrategias de promoción y prevención de salud para disminuir su impacto en el futuroObjetivo: identificar el riesgo cardiovascular en estudiantes de medicina del municipio Puerto Padre de Las Tunas.Método: se realizó un estudio observacional, descriptivo y transversal. El universo estuvo constituido por 545 estudiantes de medicina, seleccionándose 237 mediante un muestreo aleatorio simple. Se estudió el índice de masa corporal, la circunferencia abdominal y la índice cintura cadera. Se empleó estadística descriptiva.Resultados: se encontró predominio del grupo etario de 18 a 21 años (50,2 %). El 51,47 % de los estudiantes presentó un índice cintura-cadera alto, el 54,02 % una circunferencia abdominal alta, el 52,74 % un índice de masa corporal alta, así como en todos los grupos el 35,44 % presentó cifras de tensión arterial inferiores a 120/80 mmHg. El 39 % presentó riesgo cardiovascular.Conclusiones: se identificaron bajos porcientos de riesgo cardiovascular en los estudiantes de medicina del municipio Puerto Padre de Las Tunas, determinado por altos valores los índice cintura-cadera, índice de masa corporal y circunferencia abdominal