The Chemistry Mechanism in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) includes a detailed representation of chemistry throughout the atmosphere in the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model configurations. These model configurations use the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) family of chemical mechanisms, covering the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. The new MOZART tropospheric chemistry scheme (T1) has a number of updates over the previous version (MOZART‐4) in CESM, including improvements to the oxidation of isoprene and terpenes, organic nitrate speciation, and aromatic speciation and oxidation and thus improved representation of ozone and secondary organic aerosol precursors. An evaluation of the present‐day simulations of CESM2 being provided for Climate Model Intercomparison Project round 6 (CMIP6) is presented. These simulations, using the anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from the inventories specified for CMIP6, as well as online calculation of emissions of biogenic compounds, lightning NO, dust, and sea salt, indicate an underestimate of anthropogenic emissions of a variety of compounds, including carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. The simulation of surface ozone in the southeast United States is improved over previous model versions, largely due to the improved representation of reactive nitrogen and organic nitrate compounds resulting in a lower ozone production rate than in CESM1 but still overestimates observations in summer. The simulation of tropospheric ozone agrees well with ozonesonde observations in many parts of the globe. The comparison of NOx and PAN to aircraft observations indicates the model simulates the nitrogen budget well

The rise of fully turbulent flow

Over a century of research into the origin of turbulence in wallbounded shear flows has resulted in a puzzling picture in which turbulence appears in a variety of different states competing with laminar background flow. At slightly higher speeds the situation changes distinctly and the entire flow is turbulent. Neither the origin of the different states encountered during transition, nor their front dynamics, let alone the transformation to full turbulence could be explained to date. Combining experiments, theory and computer simulations here we uncover the bifurcation scenario organising the route to fully turbulent pipe flow and explain the front dynamics of the different states encountered in the process. Key to resolving this problem is the interpretation of the flow as a bistable system with nonlinear propagation (advection) of turbulent fronts. These findings bridge the gap between our understanding of the onset of turbulence and fully turbulent flows.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figure

Widespread forest vertebrate extinctions induced by a mega hydroelectric dam in lowland Amazonia

Mega hydropower projects in tropical forests pose a major emergent threat to terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity worldwide. Despite the unprecedented number of existing, underconstruction and planned hydroelectric dams in lowland tropical forests, long-term effects on biodiversity have yet to be evaluated. We examine how medium and large-bodied assemblages of terrestrial and arboreal vertebrates (including 35 mammal, bird and tortoise species) responded to the drastic 26-year post-isolation history of archipelagic alteration in landscape structure and habitat quality in a major hydroelectric reservoir of Central Amazonia. The Balbina Hydroelectric Dam inundated 3,129 km2 of primary forests, simultaneously isolating 3,546 land-bridge islands. We conducted intensive biodiversity surveys at 37 of those islands and three adjacent continuous forests using a combination of four survey techniques, and detected strong forest habitat area effects in explaining patterns of vertebrate extinction. Beyond clear area effects, edge-mediated surface fire disturbance was the most important additional driver of species loss, particularly in islands smaller than 10 ha. Based on species-area models, we predict that only 0.7% of all islands now harbor a species-rich vertebrate assemblage consisting of ≥80% of all species. We highlight the colossal erosion in vertebrate diversity driven by a man-made dam and show that the biodiversity impacts of mega dams in lowland tropical forest regions have been severely overlooked. The geopolitical strategy to deploy many more large hydropower infrastructure projects in regions like lowland Amazonia should be urgently reassessed, and we strongly advise that long-term biodiversity impacts should be explicitly included in pre-approval environmental impact assessments

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6)

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) is a major update of the whole atmosphere modeling capability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), featuring enhanced physical, chemical and aerosol parameterizations. This work describes WACCM6 and some of the important features of the model. WACCM6 can reproduce many modes of variability and trends in the middle atmosphere, including the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the evolution of Southern Hemisphere springtime ozone depletion over the 20th century. WACCM6 can also reproduce the climate and temperature trends of the 20th century throughout the atmospheric column. The representation of the climate has improved in WACCM6, relative to WACCM4. In addition, there are improvements in high latitude climate variability at the surface and sea ice extent in WACCM6 over the lower top version of the model (CAM6) that come from the extended vertical domain and expanded aerosol chemistry in WACCM6, highlighting the importance of the stratosphere and tropospheric chemistry for high latitude climate variability

Personality factors in exercise addiction: a pilot study exploring the role of narcissism, extraversion, and agreeableness

Despite the increased evidence and acceptance of exercise being classed as a behavioral addiction, there is limited research examining personality characteristics within exercise addicts. The purpose of this study was to examine three personality traits (narcissism, extraversion, and agreeableness) and to examine their role in exercise addiction. The sample comprised 114 voluntary participants (74 females and 40 males) who completed the (i) Exercise Addiction Inventory, (ii) Narcissistic Personality Inventory, and (iii) Ten-Item Personality Inventory, as well as demographic questions and questions concerning their engagement and intensity levels of exercise. Results indicated a low incidence of individuals who were classed as at risk of exercise addiction (7%), but a high incidence of symptomatic individuals (75%). Results suggested that extraversion and narcissism may be underlying factors in exercise addiction with no effect for agreeableness. Exercise engagement and intensity were also related to exercise addiction. Further research examining the relationship between personality types and exercise addiction may be useful in identifying individuals at risk for developing exercise addiction

Expression analysis of carbohydrate antigens in ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast by lectin histochemistry

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The number of breast cancer patients diagnosed with ductal carcinoma <it>in situ </it>(DCIS) continues to grow. Laboratory and clinical data indicate that DCIS can progress to invasive disease. Carbohydrate-mediated cell-cell adhesion and tumor-stroma interaction play crucial roles in tumorigenesis and tumor aggressive behavior. Breast carcinogenesis may reflect quantitative as well as qualitative changes in oligosaccharide expression, which may provide a useful tool for early detection of breast cancer. Because tumor-associated carbohydrate antigens (TACA) are implicated in tumor invasion and metastasis, the purpose of this study was to assess the expression of selected TACA by lectin histochemistry on DCIS specimens from the archival breast cancer tissue array bank of the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For detection of TACA expression, specimens were stained with <it>Griffonia simplicifolia </it>lectin-I (GS-I) and <it>Vicia vilosa </it>agglutinin (VVA). We studied associations of lectin reactivity with established prognostic factors, such as tumor size, tumor nuclear grade, and expression of Her-2/neu, p53 mutant and estrogen and progesterone receptors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed that both lectins showed significant associations with nuclear grade of DCIS. DCIS specimens with nuclear grades II and III showed significantly more intense reactivity than DCIS cases with nuclear grade I to GS-1 (Mean-score chi-square = 17.60, DF = 2; <it>P </it>= 0.0002) and VVA (Mean-score chi-square = 15.72, DF = 2; <it>P </it>= 0.0004).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results suggest that the expression of VVA- and GS-I-reactive carbohydrate antigens may contribute to forming higher grade DCIS and increase the recurrence risk.</p

Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

How does one become spiritual? The Spiritual Modeling Inventory of Life Environments (SMILE)

We report psychometric properties, correlates and underlying theory of the Spiritual Modeling Index of Life Environments (SMILE), a measure of perceptions of spiritual models, defined as everyday and prominent people who have functioned for respondents as exemplars of spiritual qualities, such as compassion, self-control, or faith. Demographic, spiritual, and personality correlates were examined in an ethnically diverse sample of college students from California, Connecticut, and Tennessee (N=1010). A summary measure of model influence was constructed from perceived models within family, school, religious organization, and among prominent individuals from both tradition and media. The SMILE, based on concepts from Bandura\u27s (1986) Social Cognitive Theory, was well-received by respondents. The summary measure demonstrated good 7-week test/retest reliability (r=.83); patterns of correlation supporting convergent, divergent, and criterion-related validity; demographic differences in expected directions; and substantial individual heterogeneity. Implications are discussed for further research and for pastoral, educational, and health-focused interventions

Happiness through leisure

Happiness is important to individuals. If one were to make a judgment based on the vast amount of self-help books available in any bookstore, the conclusion would have to be that happiness is a very important aspect of people’s lives. Whether such books actually provide any solutions to increase happiness is doubtful (Bergsma, 2008). Nevertheless, many are clearly interested in happiness

Are social norms associated with smoking in French university students? A survey report on smoking correlates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Knowledge of the correlates of smoking is a first step to successful prevention interventions. The social norms theory hypothesises that students' smoking behaviour is linked to their perception of norms for use of tobacco. This study was designed to test the theory that smoking is associated with perceived norms, controlling for other correlates of smoking.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a pencil-and-paper questionnaire, 721 second-year students in sociology, medicine, foreign language or nursing studies estimated the number of cigarettes usually smoked in a month. 31 additional covariates were included as potential predictors of tobacco use. Multiple imputation was used to deal with missing values among covariates. The strength of the association of each variable with tobacco use was quantified by the inclusion frequencies of the variable in 1000 bootstrap sample backward selections. Being a smoker and the number of cigarettes smoked by smokers were modelled separately.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We retain 8 variables to predict the risk of smoking and 6 to predict the quantities smoked by smokers. The risk of being a smoker is increased by cannabis use, binge drinking, being unsupportive of smoke-free universities, perceived friends' approval of regular smoking, positive perceptions about tobacco, a high perceived prevalence of smoking among friends, reporting not being disturbed by people smoking in the university, and being female. The quantity of cigarettes smoked by smokers is greater for smokers reporting never being disturbed by smoke in the university, unsupportive of smoke-free universities, perceiving that their friends approve of regular smoking, having more negative beliefs about the tobacco industry, being sociology students and being among the older students.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Other substance use, injunctive norms (friends' approval) and descriptive norms (friends' smoking prevalence) are associated with tobacco use.</p> <p>University-based prevention campaigns should take multiple substance use into account and focus on the norms most likely to have an impact on student smoking.</p