Redefining the "carrier" state for foot-and-mouth disease from the dynamics of virus persistence in endemically affected cattle populations

The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) “carrier” state was defined by van Bekkum in 1959. It was based on the recovery of infectious virus 28 days or more post infection and has been a useful construct for experimental studies. Using historic data from 1,107 cattle, collected as part of a population based study of endemic FMD in 2000, we developed a mixed effects logistic regression model to predict the probability of recovering viable FMDV by probang and culture, conditional on the animal’s age and time since last reported outbreak. We constructed a second set of models to predict the probability of an animal being probang positive given its antibody response in three common non-structural protein (NSP) ELISAs and its age. We argue that, in natural ecological settings, the current definition of a ”carrier” fails to capture the dynamics of either persistence of the virus (as measured by recovery using probangs) or the uncertainty in transmission from such animals that the term implies. In these respects it is not particularly useful. We therefore propose the first predictive statistical models for identifying persistently infected cattle in an endemic setting that captures some of the dynamics of the probability of persistence. Furthermore, we provide a set of predictive tools to use alongside NSP ELISAs to help target persistently infected cattle

Impact of foot-and-mouth disease on mastitis and culling on a large-scale dairy farm in Kenya

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly transmissible viral infection of cloven hooved animals associated with severe economic losses when introduced into FMD-free countries. Information on the impact of the disease in FMDV-endemic countries is poorly characterised yet essential for the prioritisation of scarce resources for disease control programmes. A FMD (virus serotype SAT2) outbreak on a large-scale dairy farm in Nakuru County, Kenya provided an opportunity to evaluate the impact of FMD on clinical mastitis and culling rate. A cohort approach followed animals over a 12-month period after the commencement of the outbreak. For culling, all animals were included; for mastitis, those over 18 months of age. FMD was recorded in 400/644 cattle over a 29-day period. During the follow-up period 76 animals were culled or died whilst in the over 18 month old cohort 63 developed clinical mastitis. Hazard ratios (HR) were generated using Cox regression accounting for non-proportional hazards by inclusion of time-varying effects. Univariable analysis showed FMD cases were culled sooner but there was no effect on clinical mastitis. After adjusting for possible confounders and inclusion of time-varying effects there was weak evidence to support an effect of FMD on culling (HR = 1.7, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.88-3.1, P = 0.12). For mastitis, there was stronger evidence of an increased rate in the first month after the onset of the outbreak (HR = 2.9, 95%CI 0.97-8.9, P = 0.057)

Survival and dispersal of a defined cohort of Irish cattle

An understanding of livestock movement is critical to effective disease prevention, control and prediction. However, livestock movement in Ireland has not yet been quantified. This study has sought to define the survival and dispersal of a defined cohort of cattle born in Co. Kerry during 2000. The cohort was observed for a maximum of four years, from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2004. Beef and dairy animals moved an average 1.31 and 0.83 times, respectively. At study end, 18.8% of the beef animals remained alive on Irish farms, including 6.7% at the farm-of-birth, compared with 48.6% and 27.7% for dairy animals respectively. Beef animals werae dispersed to all Irish counties, but mainly to Cork, Limerick, Tipperary and Galway. Dairy animals mainly moved to Cork, Limerick, and Tipperary, with less animals going to Galway, Meath and Kilkenny. The four-year survival probability was 0.07 (male beef animals), 0.25 (male dairy), 0.38 (female beef), and 0.72 (female dairy). Although there was considerable dispersal, the number of moves per animal was less than expected

Quantifying the Risk of Localised Animal Movement Bans for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

The maintenance of disease-free status from Foot-and-Mouth Disease is of significant socio-economic importance to countries such as the UK. The imposition of bans on the movement of susceptible livestock following the discovery of an outbreak is deemed necessary to prevent the spread of what is a highly contagious disease, but has a significant economic impact on the agricultural community in itself. Here we consider the risk of applying movement restrictions only in localised zones around outbreaks in order to help evaluate how quickly nation-wide restrictions could be lifted after notification. We show, with reference to the 2001 and 2007 UK outbreaks, that it would be practical to implement such a policy provided the basic reproduction ratio of known infected premises can be estimated. It is ultimately up to policy makers and stakeholders to determine the acceptable level of risk, involving a cost benefit analysis of the potential outcomes, but quantifying the risk of spread from different sized zones is a prerequisite for this. The approach outlined is relevant to the determination of control zones and vaccination policies and has the potential to be applied to future outbreaks of other diseases

Measurements of neutrino oscillation in appearance and disappearance channels by the T2K experiment with 6.6 x 10(20) protons on target

111 pages, 45 figures, submitted to Physical Review D. Minor revisions to text following referee comments111 pages, 45 figures, submitted to Physical Review D. Minor revisions to text following referee comments111 pages, 45 figures, submitted to Physical Review D. Minor revisions to text following referee commentsWe thank the J-PARC staff for superb accelerator performance and the CERN NA61/SHINE Collaboration for providing valuable particle production data. We acknowledge the support of MEXT, Japan; NSERC, NRC, and CFI, Canada; CEA and CNRS/IN2P3, France; DFG, Germany; INFN, Italy; National Science Centre (NCN), Poland; RSF, RFBR and MES, Russia; MINECO and ERDF funds, Spain; SNSF and SER, Switzerland; STFC, UK; and the U. S. Deparment of Energy, USA. We also thank CERN for the UA1/NOMAD magnet, DESY for the HERA-B magnet mover system, NII for SINET4, the WestGrid and SciNet consortia in Compute Canada, GridPP, UK, and the Emerald High Performance Computing facility in the Centre for Innovation, UK. In addition, participation of individual researchers and institutions has been further supported by funds from ERC (FP7), EU; JSPS, Japan; Royal Society, UK; and DOE Early Career program, USA

Measurement of the electron neutrino charged-current interaction rate on water with the T2K ND280 pi(0) detector

10 pages, 6 figures, Submitted to PRDhttp://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.91.112010© 2015 American Physical Society11 pages, 6 figures, as accepted to PRD11 pages, 6 figures, as accepted to PRD11 pages, 6 figures, as accepted to PR