Multiple imputation using linked proxy outcome data resulted in important bias reduction and efficiency gains: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: When an outcome variable is missing not at random (MNAR: probability of missingness depends on outcome values), estimates of the effect of an exposure on this outcome are often biased. We investigated the extent of this bias and examined whether the bias can be reduced through incorporating proxy outcomes obtained through linkage to administrative data as auxiliary variables in multiple imputation (MI). METHODS: Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) we estimated the association between breastfeeding and IQ (continuous outcome), incorporating linked attainment data (proxies for IQ) as auxiliary variables in MI models. Simulation studies explored the impact of varying the proportion of missing data (from 20 to 80%), the correlation between the outcome and its proxy (0.1-0.9), the strength of the missing data mechanism, and having a proxy variable that was incomplete. RESULTS: Incorporating a linked proxy for the missing outcome as an auxiliary variable reduced bias and increased efficiency in all scenarios, even when 80% of the outcome was missing. Using an incomplete proxy was similarly beneficial. High correlations (> 0.5) between the outcome and its proxy substantially reduced the missing information. Consistent with this, ALSPAC analysis showed inclusion of a proxy reduced bias and improved efficiency. Gains with additional proxies were modest. CONCLUSIONS: In longitudinal studies with loss to follow-up, incorporating proxies for this study outcome obtained via linkage to external sources of data as auxiliary variables in MI models can give practically important bias reduction and efficiency gains when the study outcome is MNAR

The 'At-risk mental state' for psychosis in adolescents : clinical presentation, transition and remission.

Despite increased efforts over the last decade to prospectively identify individuals at ultra-high risk of developing a psychotic illness, limited attention has been specifically directed towards adolescent populations (<18 years). In order to evaluate how those under 18 fulfilling the operationalised criteria for an At-Risk Mental State (ARMS) present and fare over time, we conducted an observational study. Participants (N = 30) generally reported a high degree of functional disability and frequent and distressing perceptual disturbance, mainly in the form of auditory hallucinations. Seventy percent (21/30) were found to fulfil the criteria for a co-morbid ICD-10 listed mental health disorder, with mood (affective; 13/30) disorders being most prevalent. Overall transition rates to psychosis were low at 24 months follow-up (2/28; 7.1 %) whilst many participants demonstrated a significant reduction in psychotic-like symptoms. The generalisation of these findings may be limited due to the small sample size and require replication in a larger sample

Lead exposure in adult males in urban Transvaal Province, South Africa during the apartheid era

Human exposure to lead is a substantial public health hazard worldwide and is particularly problematic in the Republic of South Africa given the country’s late cessation of leaded petrol. Lead exposure is associated with a number of serious health issues and diseases including developmental and cognitive deficiency, hypertension and heart disease. Understanding the distribution of lifetime lead burden within a given population is critical for reducing exposure rates. Femoral bone from 101 deceased adult males living in urban Transvaal Province (now Gauteng Province), South Africa between 1960 and 1998 were analyzed for lead concentration by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Of the 72 black and 29 white individuals sampled, chronic lead exposure was apparent in nearly all individuals. White males showed significantly higher median bone lead concentration (ME = 10.04 µg·g−1), than black males (ME = 3.80 µg·g−1) despite higher socioeconomic status. Bone lead concentration covaries significantly, though weakly, with individual age. There was no significant temporal trend in bone lead concentration. These results indicate that long-term low to moderate lead exposure is the historical norm among South African males. Unexpectedly, this research indicates that white males in the sample population were more highly exposed to lead

Effect of Propranolol on Functional Connectivity in Autism Spectrum Disorder—A Pilot Study

A decrease in interaction between brain regions is observed in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), which is believed to be related to restricted neural network access in ASD. Propranolol, a beta-adrenergic antagonist, has revealed benefit during performance of tasks involving flexibility of access to networks, a benefit also seen in ASD. Our goal was to determine the effect of propranolol on functional connectivity in ASD during a verbal decision making task as compared to nadolol, thereby accounting for the potential spurious fMRI effects due to peripheral hemodynamic effects of propranolol. Ten ASD subjects underwent fMRI scans after administration of placebo, propranolol or nadolol, while performing a phonological decision making task. Comparison of functional connectivity between pre-defined ROI-pairs revealed a significant increase with propranolol compared to nadolol, suggesting a potential imaging marker for the cognitive effects of propranolol in ASD

Comparison of Devices Used for Stent-Assisted Coiling of Intracranial Aneurysms

INTRODUCTION: Two self-expandable stents, the Neuroform and the Enterprise stent, are widely used for stent-assisted coiling (SAC) of complex shaped intracranial aneurysms. However, comparative knowledge about technical feasibility, peri- and post-procedural morbidity and mortality, packing densities as well as follow-up data is limited. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study to investigate differences in aneurysms stented with the Enterprise or Neuroform stents. Angiographic follow-up (mean 19.42 months) was available in 72.6% (61/84) of aneurysms treated with stent-assisted coiling. We further sought to compare stent-assisted coiling to a matched patient population with aneurysms treated by conventional coil embolization. RESULTS: The stenting success rate of the Enterprise was higher compared to the Neuroform stent (46/48 and 42/51, respectively). In 5 of 9 cases in which the Neuroform stent was not navigable to the landing zone, we successfully deployed an Enterprise stent instead. Eventually, 42 aneurysms were coiled after stenting in each group. We observed no significant differences in peri-procedural complication rate, post-procedural hospital stay, packing density, recurrence rate or number of in-stent stenosis. Strikingly, 36.1% of followed aneurysms in the SAC group showed progressive occlusion on angiographic follow-up imaging. The packing density was significantly higher in aneurysms treated by SAC as compared to conventionally coiled aneurysms, while recanalization rate was significantly lower in the SAC group. CONCLUSION: The procedural success rate is higher using the Enterprise, but otherwise both stents exhibited similar characteristics. Lower recurrence frequency and complication rates comparable to conventional coil embolization emphasize the importance of stent-assisted coiling in the treatment of complex aneurysms. Progressive occlusion on angiographic follow-up was a distinct and frequent observation in the SAC group and may in part be due to flow diversion

The side effects of service changes: exploring the longitudinal impact of participation in a randomised controlled trial (DOORWAYS) on staff perceptions of barriers to change

Background: Staff and service users have expressed concerns that service improvements in British mental health wards have been slow or transient. It is possible that certain changes are positive for some (e.g. service users), but negative for others (e.g. staff), which may affect implementation success. In this study, we explore whether a programme of change to improve the therapeutic milieu on mental health wards influenced staff perceptions of barriers to change, 12 months after implementation. Method: A cluster randomised controlled trial called DOORWAYS was conducted on eight British, inner-city acute mental health wards. Randomisation was achieved using a list randomly generated by a computer. A psychologist trained ward staff (mainly nurses) to deliver evidence-based groups and supported their initial implementation. The impact of these changes was measured over 12 months (when 4 wards were randomised), according to nurses’ perceptions of barriers to change (VOCALISE), using unstructured multivariate linear regression models. This innovative analysis method allows maximum use of data in randomised controlled trials with reduced sample sizes due to substantial drop out rates. The contextual influences of occupational status (staff) and of workplace setting (ward) were also considered. Results: Staff who participated in the intervention had significantly worse perceptions of barriers to change at follow up. The perceptions of staff in the control group did not change over time. In both groups (N = 120), direct care staff had more negative perceptions of barriers to change, and perceptions varied according to ward. Across time, direct care staff in the intervention group became more negative than those in the control group. Conclusion: Participation in this program of change, worsened staff perceptions of barriers to change. In addition, occupational status (being from the direct care group) had a negative effect on perceptions of barriers to change, an effect that continued across time and was worse in the intervention group. Those providing direct care should be offered extra support when changes are introduced and through the implementation process. More effort should be placed around reducing the perceived burden of innovation for staff in mental health wards

Protein-enriched meal replacements do not adversely affect liver, kidney or bone density: an outpatient randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is concern that recommending protein-enriched meal replacements as part of a weight management program could lead to changes in biomarkers of liver or renal function and reductions in bone density. This study was designed as a placebo-controlled clinical trial utilizing two isocaloric meal plans utilizing either a high protein-enriched (HP) or a standard protein (SP) meal replacement in an outpatient weight loss program.</p> <p>Subjects/methods</p> <p>100 obese men and women over 30 years of age with a body mass index (BMI) between 27 to 40 kg/m²were randomized to one of two isocaloric weight loss meal plans 1). HP group: providing 2.2 g protein/kg of lean body mass (LBM)/day or 2). SP group: providing 1.1 g protein/kg LBM/day. Meal replacement (MR) was used twice daily (one meal, one snack) for 3 months and then once a day for 9 months. Body weight, lipid profiles, liver function, renal function and bone density were measured at baseline and 12 months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seventy subjects completed the study. Both groups lost weight (HP -4.29 ± 5.90 kg vs. SP -4.66 ± 6.91 kg, p < 0.01) and there was no difference in weight loss observed between the groups at one year. There was no significant change noted in liver function [AST (HP -2.07 ± 10.32 U/L, p = 0.28; SP 0.27 ± 6.67 U/L, p = 0.820), ALT (HP -1.03 ± 10.08 U/L, p = 0.34; SP -2.6 ± 12.51 U/L, p = 0.24), bilirubin (HP 0.007 ± 0.33, U/L, p = 0.91; SP 0.07 ± 0.24 U/L, p = 0.120), alkaline phosphatase (HP 2.00 ± 9.07 U/L, p = 0.240; SP -2.12 ± 11.01 U/L, p = 0.280)], renal function [serum creatinine (HP 0.31 ± 1.89 mg/dL, p = 0.380; SP -0.05 ± 0.15 mg/dL, p = 0.060), urea nitrogen (HP 1.33 ± 4.68 mg/dL, p = 0.130; SP -0.24 ± 3.03 mg/dL, p = 0.650), 24 hour urine creatinine clearance (HP -0.02 ± 0.16 mL/min, p = 0.480; SP 1.18 ± 7.53 mL/min, p = 0.400), and calcium excretion (HP -0.41 ± 9.48 mg/24 hours, p = 0.830; SP -0.007 ± 6.76 mg/24 hours, p = 0.990)] or in bone mineral density by DEXA (HP 0.04 ± 0.19 g/cm², p = 0.210; SP -0.03 ± 0.17 g/cm², p = 0.320) in either group over one year.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These studies demonstrate that protein-enriched meals replacements as compared to standard meal replacements recommended for weight management do not have adverse effects on routine measures of liver function, renal function or bone density at one year. Clinicaltrial.gov: NCT01030354.</p

A prospective registry of emergency department patients admitted with infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with infections account for a significant proportion of Emergency Department (ED) workload, with many hospital patients admitted with severe sepsis initially investigated and resuscitated in the ED. The aim of this registry is to systematically collect quality observational clinical and microbiological data regarding emergency patients admitted with infection, in order to explore in detail the microbiological profile of these patients, and to provide the foundation for a significant programme of prospective observational studies and further clinical research.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>ED patients admitted with infection will be identified through daily review of the computerised database of ED admissions, and clinical information such as site of infection, physiological status in the ED, and components of management abstracted from patients' charts. This information will be supplemented by further data regarding results of investigations, microbiological isolates, and length of stay (LOS) from hospital electronic databases. Outcome measures will be hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) LOS, and mortality endpoints derived from a national death registry.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This database will provide substantial insights into the characteristics, microbiological profile, and outcomes of emergency patients admitted with infections. It will become the nidus for a programme of research into compliance with evidence-based guidelines, optimisation of empiric antimicrobial regimens, validation of clinical decision rules and identification of outcome determinants. The detailed observational data obtained will provide a solid baseline to inform the design of further controlled trials planned to optimise treatment and outcomes for emergency patients admitted with infections.</p

Rationale and design of a multicenter randomized controlled trial on a 'minimal intervention' in Dutch army personnel with nonspecific low back pain [ISRCTN19334317]

BACKGROUND: Researchers from the Royal Netherlands Army are studying the potential of isolated lumbar extensor training in low back pain in their working population. Currently, a randomized controlled trial is carried out in five military health centers in The Netherlands and Germany, in which a 10-week program of not more than 2 training sessions (10–15 minutes) per week is studied in soldiers with nonspecific low back pain for more than 4 weeks. The purpose of the study is to investigate the efficacy of this 'minimal intervention program', compared to usual care. Moreover, attempts are made to identify subgroups of different responders to the intervention. METHODS: Besides a baseline measurement, follow-up data are gathered at two short-term intervals (5 and 10 weeks after randomization) and two long-term intervals (6 months and one year after the end of the intervention), respectively. At every test moment, participants fill out a compound questionnaire on a stand-alone PC, and they undergo an isometric back strength measurement on a lower back machine. Primary outcome measures in this study are: self-assessed degree of complaints and degree of handicap in daily activities due to back pain. In addition, our secondary measurements focus on: fear of movement/(re-) injury, mental and social health perception, individual back extension strength, and satisfaction of the patient with the treatment perceived. Finally, we assess a number of potential prognostic factors: demographic and job characteristics, overall health, the degree of physical activity, and the attitudes and beliefs of the physiotherapist towards chronic low back pain. DISCUSSION: Although a substantial number of trials have been conducted that included lumbar extension training in low back pain patients, hardly any study has emphasized a minimal intervention approach comparable to ours. For reasons of time efficiency and patient preferences, this minimal sports medicine approach of low back pain management is interesting for the population under study, and possibly for comparable working populations with physical demanding job activities

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation