Predictive Entropy Search for Bayesian optimization with unknown constraints

Unknown constraints arise in many types of expensive black-box optimization problems. Several methods have been proposed recently for performing Bayesian optimization with constraints, based on the expected improvement (EI) heuristic. However, EI can lead to pathologies when used with constraints. For example, in the case of decoupled constraints---i.e., when one can independently evaluate the objective or the constraints---EI can encounter a pathology that prevents exploration. Additionally, computing EI requires a current best solution, which may not exist if none of the data collected so far satisfy the constraints. By contrast, information-based approaches do not suffer from these failure modes. In this paper, we present a new information-based method called Predictive Entropy Search with Constraints (PESC). We analyze the performance of PESC and show that it compares favorably to EI-based approaches on synthetic and benchmark problems, as well as several real-world examples. We demonstrate that PESC is an effective algorithm that provides a promising direction towards a unified solution for constrained Bayesian optimization.José Miguel Hernández-Lobato acknowledges support from the Rafael del Pino Foundation. Zoubin Ghahramani acknowledges support from Google Focused Research Award and EPSRC grant EP/I036575/1. Matthew W. Hoffman acknowledges support from EPSRC grant EP/J012300/1.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://jmlr.org/proceedings/papers/v37/hernandez-lobatob15.html

Sustainable regeneration : everyday landscapes of food acquisition, Pendleton

The report is structured as follows. Chapter two provides the context to the research, outlining why a study of food acquisition and digital inclusion is necessary in Pendleton at this time, and why both issues are linked to the current regeneration programme. Chapter three sets out the methodology employed along with details of the recruitment of participants. Chapter four provides a detailed analysis of the findings from the digital skills side of the research including: digital usage, confidence and competence, and digital skills and shopping, and chapter five focuses on findings related to the food landscape. Chapter six summarises the key findings by identifying what is going well, making recommendations for changes at a variety of scale, as well as specific recommendations for the on-going regeneration programme, and recommendations for further research

A General Framework for Constrained Bayesian Optimization using Information-based Search

We present an information-theoretic framework for solving global black-box optimization problems that also have black-box constraints. Of particular interest to us is to efficiently solve problems with $\textit{decoupled}$ constraints, in which subsets of the objective and constraint functions may be evaluated independently. For example, when the objective is evaluated on a CPU and the constraints are evaluated independently on a GPU. These problems require an acquisition function that can be separated into the contributions of the individual function evaluations. We develop one such acquisition function and call it Predictive Entropy Search with Constraints (PESC). PESC is an approximation to the expected information gain criterion and it compares favorably to alternative approaches based on improvement in several synthetic and real-world problems. In addition to this, we consider problems with a mix of functions that are fast and slow to evaluate. These problems require balancing the amount of time spent in the meta-computation of PESC and in the actual evaluation of the target objective. We take a bounded rationality approach and develop a partial update for PESC which trades off accuracy against speed. We then propose a method for adaptively switching between the partial and full updates for PESC. This allows us to interpolate between versions of PESC that are efficient in terms of function evaluations and those that are efficient in terms of wall-clock time. Overall, we demonstrate that PESC is an effective algorithm that provides a promising direction towards a unified solution for constrained Bayesian optimization.Rafael del Pino Foundation, Google Focused Research Award, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (Grant IDs: EP/I036575/1, EP/J012300/1

Random walk of motor planning in task-irrelevant dimensions

The movements that we make are variable. It is well established that at least a part of this variability is caused by noise in central motor planning. Here, we studied how the random effects of planning noise translate into changes in motor planning. Are the random effects independently added to a constant mean end point, or do they accumulate over movements? To distinguish between these possibilities, we examined repeated, discrete movements in various tasks in which the motor output could be decomposed into a task-relevant and a task-irrelevant component. We found in all tasks that the task-irrelevant component had a positive lag 1 autocorrelation, suggesting that the random effects of planning noise accumulate over movements. In contrast, the task-relevant component always had a lag 1 autocorrelation close to zero, which can be explained by effective trial-by-trial correction of motor planning on the basis of observed motor errors. Accumulation of the effects of planning noise is consistent with current insights into the stochastic nature of synaptic plasticity. It leads to motor exploration, which may subserve motor learning and performance optimization

Sensorimotor priors in non-stationary environments

In the course of its interaction with the world, the human nervous system must constantly estimate various variables in the surrounding environment. Past research indicates that environmental variables may be represented as probabilistic distributions of a priori information (priors). Priors for environmental variables that do not change much over time have been widely studied. Little is known however, about how priors develop in environments with non-stationary statistics. We examine whether humans change their reliance on the prior based on recent changes in environmental variance. Through experimentation, we obtain an online estimate of the human sensorimotor prior (prediction) and then compare it to similar online predictions made by various non-adaptive and adaptive models. Simulations show that models that rapidly adapt to non-stationary components in the environments predict the stimuli better than models that do not take the changing statistics of the environment into consideration. We found that adaptive models best predict participants' responses in most cases. However, we find no support for the idea that this is a consequence of increased reliance on recent experience just after the occurrence of a systematic change in the environment

Global Ethics and Nanotechnology: A Comparison of the Nanoethics Environments of the EU and China

The following article offers a brief overview of current nanotechnology policy, regulation and ethics in Europe and The People’s Republic of China with the intent of noting (dis)similarities in approach, before focusing on the involvement of the public in science and technology policy (i.e. participatory Technology Assessment). The conclusions of this article are, that (a) in terms of nanosafety as expressed through policy and regulation, China PR and the EU have similar approaches towards, and concerns about, nanotoxicity—the official debate on benefits and risks is not markedly different in the two regions; (b) that there is a similar economic drive behind both regions’ approach to nanodevelopment, the difference being the degree of public concern admitted; and (c) participation in decision-making is fundamentally different in the two regions. Thus in China PR, the focus is on the responsibility of the scientist; in the EU, it is about government accountability to the public. The formulation of a Code of Conduct for scientists in both regions (China PR’s predicted for 2012) reveals both similarity and difference in approach to nanotechnology development. This may change, since individual responsibility alone cannot guide S&T development, and as public participation is increasingly seen globally as integral to governmental decision-making

Probing the close environment of young stellar objects with interferometry

The study of Young Stellar Objects (YSOs) is one of the most exciting topics that can be undertaken by long baseline optical interferometry. The magnitudes of these objects are at the edge of capabilities of current optical interferometers, limiting the studies to a few dozen, but are well within the capability of coming large aperture interferometers like the VLT Interferometer, the Keck Interferometer, the Large Binocular Telescope or 'OHANA. The milli-arcsecond spatial resolution reached by interferometry probes the very close environment of young stars, down to a tenth of an astronomical unit. In this paper, I review the different aspects of star formation that can be tackled by interferometry: circumstellar disks, multiplicity, jets. I present recent observations performed with operational infrared interferometers, IOTA, PTI and ISI, and I show why in the next future one will extend these studies with large aperture interferometers.Comment: Review to be published in JENAM'2002 proceedings "The Very Large Telescope Interferometer Challenges for the future

Childhood loneliness as a predictor of adolescent depressive symptoms: an 8-year longitudinal study

Childhood loneliness is characterised by children’s perceived dissatisfaction with aspects of their social relationships. This 8-year prospective study investigates whether loneliness in childhood predicts depressive symptoms in adolescence, controlling for early childhood indicators of emotional problems and a sociometric measure of peer social preference. 296 children were tested in the infant years of primary school (T1 5 years of age), in the upper primary school (T2 9 years of age) and in secondary school (T3 13 years of age). At T1, children completed the loneliness assessment and sociometric interview. Their teachers completed externalisation and internalisation rating scales for each child. At T2, children completed a loneliness assessment, a measure of depressive symptoms, and the sociometric interview. At T3, children completed the depressive symptom assessment. An SEM analysis showed that depressive symptoms in early adolescence (age 13) were predicted by reports of depressive symptoms at age 8, which were themselves predicted by internalisation in the infant school (5 years). The interactive effect of loneliness at 5 and 9, indicative of prolonged loneliness in childhood, also predicted depressive symptoms at age 13. Parent and peer-related loneliness at age 5 and 9, peer acceptance variables, and duration of parent loneliness did not predict depression. Our results suggest that enduring peer-related loneliness during childhood constitutes an interpersonal stressor that predisposes children to adolescent depressive symptoms. Possible mediators are discussed

A transient homotypic interaction model for the influenza A virus NS1 protein effector domain

Influenza A virus NS1 protein is a multifunctional virulence factor consisting of an RNA binding domain (RBD), a short linker, an effector domain (ED), and a C-terminal 'tail'. Although poorly understood, NS1 multimerization may autoregulate its actions. While RBD dimerization seems functionally conserved, two possible apo ED dimers have been proposed (helix-helix and strand-strand). Here, we analyze all available RBD, ED, and full-length NS1 structures, including four novel crystal structures obtained using EDs from divergent human and avian viruses, as well as two forms of a monomeric ED mutant. The data reveal the helix-helix interface as the only strictly conserved ED homodimeric contact. Furthermore, a mutant NS1 unable to form the helix-helix dimer is compromised in its ability to bind dsRNA efficiently, implying that ED multimerization influences RBD activity. Our bioinformatical work also suggests that the helix-helix interface is variable and transient, thereby allowing two ED monomers to twist relative to one another and possibly separate. In this regard, we found a mAb that recognizes NS1 via a residue completely buried within the ED helix-helix interface, and which may help highlight potential different conformational populations of NS1 (putatively termed 'helix-closed' and 'helix-open') in virus-infected cells. 'Helix-closed' conformations appear to enhance dsRNA binding, and 'helix-open' conformations allow otherwise inaccessible interactions with host factors. Our data support a new model of NS1 regulation in which the RBD remains dimeric throughout infection, while the ED switches between several quaternary states in order to expand its functional space. Such a concept may be applicable to other small multifunctional proteins

The clinical features of the piriformis syndrome: a systematic review

Piriformis syndrome, sciatica caused by compression of the sciatic nerve by the piriformis muscle, has been described for over 70 years; yet, it remains controversial. The literature consists mainly of case series and narrative reviews. The objectives of the study were: first, to make the best use of existing evidence to estimate the frequencies of clinical features in patients reported to have PS; second, to identify future research questions. A systematic review was conducted of any study type that reported extractable data relevant to diagnosis. The search included all studies up to 1 March 2008 in four databases: AMED, CINAHL, Embase and Medline. Screening, data extraction and analysis were all performed independently by two reviewers. A total of 55 studies were included: 51 individual and 3 aggregated data studies, and 1 combined study. The most common features found were: buttock pain, external tenderness over the greater sciatic notch, aggravation of the pain through sitting and augmentation of the pain with manoeuvres that increase piriformis muscle tension. Future research could start with comparing the frequencies of these features in sciatica patients with and without disc herniation or spinal stenosis