Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are estimated from the observed incidence of new cases and information about the infectious contact structures of the population in which the disease spreads. However, the relevant infectious contact structures for new, emerging infections are often unknown or hard to obtain. Here, we show that, for many common true underlying heterogeneous contact structures, the simplification to neglect such structures and instead assume that all contacts are made homogeneously in the whole population results in conservative estimates for R0 and the required control effort. This means that robust control policies can be planned during the early stages of an outbreak, using such conservative estimates of the required control effort

Daphnias: from the individual based model to the large population equation

The class of deterministic 'Daphnia' models treated by Diekmann et al. (J Math Biol 61: 277-318, 2010) has a long history going back to Nisbet and Gurney (Theor Pop Biol 23: 114-135, 1983) and Diekmann et al. (Nieuw Archief voor Wiskunde 4: 82-109, 1984). In this note, we formulate the individual based models (IBM) supposedly underlying those deterministic models. The models treat the interaction between a general size-structured consumer population ('Daphnia') and an unstructured resource ('algae'). The discrete, size and age-structured Daphnia population changes through births and deaths of its individuals and throught their aging and growth. The birth and death rates depend on the sizes of the individuals and on the concentration of the algae. The latter is supposed to be a continuous variable with a deterministic dynamics that depends on the Daphnia population. In this model setting we prove that when the Daphnia population is large, the stochastic differential equation describing the IBM can be approximated by the delay equation featured in (Diekmann et al., l.c.)

Lead Exposure Is Associated with Decreased Serum Paraoxonase 1 (PON1) Activity and Genotypes

Lead exposure causes cardiac and vascular damage in experimental animals. However, there is considerable debate regarding the causal relationship between lead exposure and cardiovascular dysfunction in humans. Paraoxonase 1 (PON1), a high-density lipoprotein-associated antioxidant enzyme, is capable of hydrolyzing oxidized lipids and thus protects against atherosclerosis. Previous studies have shown that lead and several other metal ions are able to inhibit PON1 activity in vitro. To investigate whether lead exposure has influence on serum PON1 activity, we conducted a cross-sectional study of workers from a lead battery manufactory and lead recycling plant. Blood samples were analyzed for whole-blood lead levels, serum PON1 activity, and three common PON1 polymorphisms (Q192R, L55M, −108C/T). The mean blood lead level (± SD) of this cohort was 27.1 ± 15 μg/dL. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that blood lead levels were significantly associated with decreased serum PON1 activity (p < 0.001) in lead workers. This negative correlation was more evident for workers who carry the R192 allele, which has been suggested to be a risk factor for coronary heart disease. Taken together, our results suggest that the decrease in serum PON1 activity due to lead exposure may render individuals more susceptible to atherosclerosis, particularly subjects who are homozygous for the R192 allele

Monitoring Cognitive and Emotional Processes Through Pupil and Cardiac Response During Dynamic Versus Logical Task

The paper deals with the links between physiological measurements and cognitive and emotional functioning. As long as the operator is a key agent in charge of complex systems, the definition of metrics able to predict his performance is a great challenge. The measurement of the physiological state is a very promising way but a very acute comprehension is required; in particular few studies compare autonomous nervous system reactivity according to specific cognitive processes during task performance and task related psychological stress is often ignored. We compared physiological parameters recorded on 24 healthy subjects facing two neuropsychological tasks: a dynamic task that require problem solving in a world that continually evolves over time and a logical task representative of cognitive processes performed by operators facing everyday problem solving. Results showed that the mean pupil diameter change was higher during the dynamic task; conversely, the heart rate was more elevated during the logical task. Finally, the systolic blood pressure seemed to be strongly sensitive to psychological stress. A better taking into account of the precise influence of a given cognitive activity and both workload and related task-induced psychological stress during task performance is a promising way to better monitor operators in complex working situations to detect mental overload or pejorative stress factor of error

An e-learning reproductive health module to support improved student learning and interaction: a prospective interventional study at a medical school in Egypt

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Public Health (PH) course at the medical college of Cairo University is based on traditional lectures. Large enrollment limits students' discussions and interactions with instructors.</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>Evaluate students' learning outcomes as measured by improved knowledge acquisition and opinions of redesigning the Reproductive Health (RH) section of the PH course into e-learning and assessing e-course utilization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This prospective interventional study started with development of an e-learning course covering the RH section, with visual and interactive emphasis, to satisfy students' diverse learning styles. Two student groups participated in this study. The first group received traditional lecturing, while the second volunteered to enroll in the e-learning course, taking online course quizzes. Both groups answered knowledge and course evaluation questionnaires and were invited to group discussions. Additionally, the first group answered another questionnaire about reasons for non-participation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Students participating in the e-learning course showed significantly better results, than those receiving traditional tutoring. Students who originally shunned the e-course expressed eagerness to access the course before the end of the academic year. Overall, students using the redesigned e-course reported better learning experiences.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>An online course with interactivities and interaction, can overcome many educational drawbacks of large enrolment classes, enhance student's learning and complement pit-falls of large enrollment traditional tutoring.</p

Autoimmune and autoinflammatory mechanisms in uveitis

The eye, as currently viewed, is neither immunologically ignorant nor sequestered from the systemic environment. The eye utilises distinct immunoregulatory mechanisms to preserve tissue and cellular function in the face of immune-mediated insult; clinically, inflammation following such an insult is termed uveitis. The intra-ocular inflammation in uveitis may be clinically obvious as a result of infection (e.g. toxoplasma, herpes), but in the main infection, if any, remains covert. We now recognise that healthy tissues including the retina have regulatory mechanisms imparted by control of myeloid cells through receptors (e.g. CD200R) and soluble inhibitory factors (e.g. alpha-MSH), regulation of the blood retinal barrier, and active immune surveillance. Once homoeostasis has been disrupted and inflammation ensues, the mechanisms to regulate inflammation, including T cell apoptosis, generation of Treg cells, and myeloid cell suppression in situ, are less successful. Why inflammation becomes persistent remains unknown, but extrapolating from animal models, possibilities include differential trafficking of T cells from the retina, residency of CD8(+) T cells, and alterations of myeloid cell phenotype and function. Translating lessons learned from animal models to humans has been helped by system biology approaches and informatics, which suggest that diseased animals and people share similar changes in T cell phenotypes and monocyte function to date. Together the data infer a possible cryptic infectious drive in uveitis that unlocks and drives persistent autoimmune responses, or promotes further innate immune responses. Thus there may be many mechanisms in common with those observed in autoinflammatory disorders

Clinical presentation, histology, and prognoses of malignant melanoma in ethnic Chinese: A study of 522 consecutive cases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malignant melanoma is a rare disease in Asia, and knowledge on its characteristics and clinical outcome in Asian patients is limited. The purpose of this observational study was to determine the clinical presentation and outcome of patients with melanoma in China.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A database was prospectively established for the purpose of this analysis. The elements of the database included basic demographic data of patients and prognosticators previously reported in literature, as well as follow-up data including clinical outcome after treatment. Medical record of all patients with pathologically diagnosed malignant melanoma consulted in our center since 2006 were retrieved and reviewed. No patient was excluded in this study. Statistical analyses including survival and multivariate analyses of factors associated with survival were respectively performed by Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 522 consecutive and nonselected cases were evaluated. There were 218 cases (41.8%) of acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM), 118 (22.6%) of mucosal melanoma (MCM), 103 (19.7%) of nodular melanoma (NM), 33 (6.3%) of superficial spreading melanoma (SSM), and others were Lentigo maligna melanoma or unclassifiable disease. The proportion of patients with clinical stage I, II, III, and IV diseases were 6.1%, 55.9%, 25.1%, and 12.8%, respectively. Among the 357 cases of cutaneous melanoma, 234 patients (65.5%) had ulceration.</p> <p>The 5-year overall survival rate of all 522 patients was 41.6%, and the median survival time was 3.92 years (95% CI, 3.282 to 4.558). Five-year survival rates of patients with stage I, II, III, and IV diseases were 94.1%, 44.0%, 38.4% and 4.6% respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that clinical stage and the ulceration were two significant prognosticators for OS. In addition, extent of surgery and use of adjuvant therapy were significant prognosticators for DFS in patients with non-metastatic disease after definitive treatment. Pathological subtype was not a significant prognostic factor to predict wither OS or DFS.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Prognoses of patients with malignant melanoma diagnosed in China were suboptimal, and most patients were diagnosed with locally advanced disease (i.e., stage II or above). ALM and MCM are the two most commonly diagnosed pathological subtypes. Clinical staging and presence of ulceration was significantly associated with clinical outcome in terms of OS, while treatment strategy including extent of surgery and use of adjuvant therapy were significant predictors of DFS.</p

NF-κB Induced the Donor Liver Cold Preservation Related Acute Lung Injury in Rat Liver Transplantation Model

We have observed at our clinical work that acute lung injury (ALI) often occurs in patients transplanted with donor livers persevered for long time. So, we conducted this study to investigate the influence of cold preservation time (CPT) of donor liver on ALI induced by liver transplantation (LT), and further study the role of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) in the process.Wistar rats were used as donors and recipients to establish orthotopic rat liver transplantation models. Donor livers were preserved at 4°C for different lengths of time. The effect of NF-κB inhibitor, ammonium pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate (PDTC), on ALI was detected. All samples were harvested after 3 h reperfusion. The severity of liver injury was evaluated first. The expressions of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β) in liver tissue and liver outflow serum were measured respectively. The severity indexes of ALI, the activity of NF-κB and inhibitor-κBα (I-κBα) in lung/liver were measured accordingly.With the prolonged liver CPT, the liver damage associated indexes and ALI-related indexes all increased significantly. TNF-α and IL-1β in liver outflow serum increased accordingly, and the activity of NF-κB in liver/lung increased correspondingly. All these ALI-associated indexes could be partially reversed by the use of PDTC.Extended CPT aggravates the damage of donor liver and induces the expressions of TNF-α and IL-1β in liver. These inflammatory factors migrate to lung via liver outflow blood and activate NF-κB in lung, inducing ALI finally. NF-κB may play a critical role in LT-related ALI. Patients with or at risk of ALI may benefit from acute anti-inflammatory treatment with PDTC

Aptamer-based multiplexed proteomic technology for biomarker discovery

Interrogation of the human proteome in a highly multiplexed and efficient manner remains a coveted and challenging goal in biology. We present a new aptamer-based proteomic technology for biomarker discovery capable of simultaneously measuring thousands of proteins from small sample volumes (15 [mu]L of serum or plasma). Our current assay allows us to measure ~800 proteins with very low limits of detection (1 pM average), 7 logs of overall dynamic range, and 5% average coefficient of variation. This technology is enabled by a new generation of aptamers that contain chemically modified nucleotides, which greatly expand the physicochemical diversity of the large randomized nucleic acid libraries from which the aptamers are selected. Proteins in complex matrices such as plasma are measured with a process that transforms a signature of protein concentrations into a corresponding DNA aptamer concentration signature, which is then quantified with a DNA microarray. In essence, our assay takes advantage of the dual nature of aptamers as both folded binding entities with defined shapes and unique sequences recognizable by specific hybridization probes. To demonstrate the utility of our proteomics biomarker discovery technology, we applied it to a clinical study of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We identified two well known CKD biomarkers as well as an additional 58 potential CKD biomarkers. These results demonstrate the potential utility of our technology to discover unique protein signatures characteristic of various disease states. More generally, we describe a versatile and powerful tool that allows large-scale comparison of proteome profiles among discrete populations. This unbiased and highly multiplexed search engine will enable the discovery of novel biomarkers in a manner that is unencumbered by our incomplete knowledge of biology, thereby helping to advance the next generation of evidence-based medicine

Magnetism and its microscopic origin in iron-based high-temperature superconductors

High-temperature superconductivity in the iron-based materials emerges from, or sometimes coexists with, their metallic or insulating parent compound states. This is surprising since these undoped states display dramatically different antiferromagnetic (AF) spin arrangements and N$\rm \acute{e}$el temperatures. Although there is general consensus that magnetic interactions are important for superconductivity, much is still unknown concerning the microscopic origin of the magnetic states. In this review, progress in this area is summarized, focusing on recent experimental and theoretical results and discussing their microscopic implications. It is concluded that the parent compounds are in a state that is more complex than implied by a simple Fermi surface nesting scenario, and a dual description including both itinerant and localized degrees of freedom is needed to properly describe these fascinating materials.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, Review article, accepted for publication in Nature Physic