Macrofilaricides and onchocerciasis control, mathematical modelling of the prospects for elimination

BACKGROUND: In most endemic parts of the world, onchocerciasis (river blindness) control relies, or will soon rely, exclusively on mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Worldwide eradication of the parasite by means of this drug is unlikely. Macrofilaricidal drugs are currently being developed for human use. METHODS: We used ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocerciasis transmission, to explore the potentials of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug for the elimination of onchocerciasis under different epidemiological conditions, as characterized by previous intervention strategies, vectorial capacity and levels of coverage. RESULTS: With a high vector biting rate and poor coverage, a very effective macrofilaricide would appear to have a substantially higher potential for achieving elimination of the parasite than does ivermectin. CONCLUSIONS: Macrofilaricides have a substantially higher potential for achieving onchocerciasis elimination than ivermectin, but high coverage levels are still key. When these drugs become available, onchocerciasis elimination strategies should be reconsidered. In view of the impact of control efforts preceding the introduction of macrofilaricides on the success of elimination, it is important to sustain current control efforts

The empirical basis for modelling glacial erosion rates

Glaciers are highly effective agents of erosion that have profoundly shaped Earth’s surface, but there is uncertainty about how glacial erosion should be parameterised in landscape evolution models. Glacial erosion rate is usually modelled as a function of glacier sliding velocity, but the empirical basis for this relationship is weak. In turn, climate is assumed to control sliding velocity and hence erosion, but this too lacks empirical scrutiny. Here, we present statistically robust relationships between erosion rates, sliding velocities, and climate from a global compilation of 38 glaciers. We show that sliding is positively and significantly correlated with erosion, and derive a relationship for use in erosion models. Our dataset further demonstrates that the most rapid erosion is achieved at temperate glaciers with high mean annual precipitation, which serve to promote rapid sliding. Precipitation has received little attention in glacial erosion studies, but our data illustrate its importance

Revealing the last 13,500 years of environmental history from the multiproxy record of a mountain lake (Lago Enol, northern Iberian Peninsula)

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-009-9387-7.We present the Holocene sequence from Lago Enol (43°16′N, 4°59′W, 1,070 m a.s.l.), Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. A multiproxy analysis provided comprehensive information about regional humidity and temperature changes. The analysis included sedimentological descriptions, physical properties, organic carbon and carbonate content, mineralogy and geochemical composition together with biological proxies including diatom and ostracod assemblages. A detailed pollen study enabled reconstruction of variations in vegetation cover, which were interpreted in the context of climate changes and human impact. Four distinct stages were recognized for the last 13,500 years: (1) a cold and dry episode that includes the Younger Dryas event (13,500–11,600 cal. year BP); (2) a humid and warmer period characterizing the onset of the Holocene (11,600–8,700 cal. year BP); (3) a tendency toward a drier climate during the middle Holocene (8,700–4,650 cal. year BP); and (4) a return to humid conditions following landscape modification by human activity (pastoral activities, deforestation) in the late Holocene (4,650–2,200 cal. year BP). Superimposed on relatively stable landscape conditions (e.g. maintenance of well established forests), the typical environmental variability of the southern European region is observed at this site.The Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT), the Spanish National Parks agency, the European Commission, the Spanish Ministry of Science, and the European Social Fund

Revealing the last 13,500 years of environmental history from the multiproxy record of a mountain lake (Lago Enol, northern Iberian Peninsula)

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-009-9387-7.We present the Holocene sequence from Lago Enol (43°16′N, 4°59′W, 1,070 m a.s.l.), Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. A multiproxy analysis provided comprehensive information about regional humidity and temperature changes. The analysis included sedimentological descriptions, physical properties, organic carbon and carbonate content, mineralogy and geochemical composition together with biological proxies including diatom and ostracod assemblages. A detailed pollen study enabled reconstruction of variations in vegetation cover, which were interpreted in the context of climate changes and human impact. Four distinct stages were recognized for the last 13,500 years: (1) a cold and dry episode that includes the Younger Dryas event (13,500–11,600 cal. year BP); (2) a humid and warmer period characterizing the onset of the Holocene (11,600–8,700 cal. year BP); (3) a tendency toward a drier climate during the middle Holocene (8,700–4,650 cal. year BP); and (4) a return to humid conditions following landscape modification by human activity (pastoral activities, deforestation) in the late Holocene (4,650–2,200 cal. year BP). Superimposed on relatively stable landscape conditions (e.g. maintenance of well established forests), the typical environmental variability of the southern European region is observed at this site.The Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT), the Spanish National Parks agency, the European Commission, the Spanish Ministry of Science, and the European Social Fund

Modeling Transmission Dynamics and Control of Vector-Borne Neglected Tropical Diseases

Neglected tropical diseases affect more than one billion people worldwide. The populations most impacted by such diseases are typically the most resource-limited. Mathematical modeling of disease transmission and cost-effectiveness analyses can play a central role in maximizing the utility of limited resources for neglected tropical diseases. We review the contributions that mathematical modeling has made to optimizing intervention strategies of vector-borne neglected diseases. We propose directions forward in the modeling of these diseases, including integrating new knowledge of vector and pathogen ecology, incorporating evolutionary responses to interventions, and expanding the scope of sensitivity analysis in order to achieve robust results

Promoting Functional Health in Midlife and Old Age: Long-Term Protective Effects of Control Beliefs, Social Support, and Physical Exercise

Previous studies have examined physical risk factors in relation to functional health, but less work has focused on the protective role of psychological and social factors. We examined the individual and joint protective contribution of control beliefs, social support and physical exercise to changes in functional health, beyond the influence of health status and physical risk factors in middle-aged and older adults. Given that functional health typically declines throughout adulthood, it is important to identify modifiable factors that can be implemented to maintain functioning, improve quality of life, and reduce disability.We conducted a national longitudinal study, Midlife in the United States (MIDUS), with assessments in 1995-1996 and 2004-2006, and 3,626 community-residing adults, aged 32 to 84, were included in the analyses. Functional health (Physical Functioning subscale of the SF-36) and protective factors were measured at both occasions. While controlling for socio-demographic, health status, and physical risk factors (large waist circumference, smoking, and alcohol or drug problems), a composite of the three protective variables (control beliefs, social support, and physical exercise) at Time 1 was significantly related to functional health change. The more of these factors at Time 1, the better the health maintenance over 10 years. Among middle-aged and older adults, declines in health were significantly reduced with an increased number of protective factors.Age-related declines in health were reduced among those with more protective factors up to a decade earlier in life. Modifiable psychological, social, and physical protective factors, individually and in the aggregate, are associated with maintenance of functional health, beyond the damaging effects of physical risk factors. The results are encouraging for the prospect of developing interventions to promote functional health and for reducing public health expenditures for physical disability in later life

Cognition based bTBI mechanistic criteria; a tool for preventive and therapeutic innovations

Blast-induced traumatic brain injury has been associated with neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. To date, although damage due to oxidative stress appears to be important, the specific mechanistic causes of such disorders remain elusive. Here, to determine the mechanical variables governing the tissue damage eventually cascading into cognitive deficits, we performed a study on the mechanics of rat brain under blast conditions. To this end, experiments were carried out to analyse and correlate post-injury oxidative stress distribution with cognitive deficits on a live rat exposed to blast. A computational model of the rat head was developed from imaging data and validated against in vivo brain displacement measurements. The blast event was reconstructed in silico to provide mechanistic thresholds that best correlate with cognitive damage at the regional neuronal tissue level, irrespectively of the shape or size of the brain tissue types. This approach was leveraged on a human head model where the prediction of cognitive deficits was shown to correlate with literature findings. The mechanistic insights from this work were finally used to propose a novel helmet design roadmap and potential avenues for therapeutic innovations against blast traumatic brain injury