Long-term concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and mortality: a meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Concentrations of outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have been associated with increased mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) from cohort studies are used to assess population health impact and burden. We undertook meta-analyses to derive concentration-response functions suitable for such evaluations and assessed their sensitivity to study selection based upon cohort characteristics. METHODS: We searched online databases and existing reviews for cohort studies published to October 2016 reporting HRs for NO2 and mortality. We calculated meta-analytic summary estimates using fixed/random effects models. RESULTS: We identified 48 articles analyzing 28 cohorts. Meta-analysis of HRs found positive associations between NO2 and all-cause (1.02 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.03); prediction interval (PI): (0.99, 1.06) per 10µg/m increment in NO2), cardiovascular (1.03 (95% CI: 1.02,1.05); PI: (0.98, 1.08)) , respiratory (1.03 (95% CI: 1.01,1.05); PI: (0.97, 1.10)) and lung cancer mortality (1.05 (95% CI: 1.02,1.08); PI: (0.94, 1.17)) with evidence of substantial heterogeneity between studies. In subgroup analysis, summary HRs varied by age at cohort entry, spatial resolution of pollution estimates, and adjustment for smoking and body mass index at the individual level; for some sub-groups the HR was close to unity, with lower confidence limits below 1. CONCLUSIONS: Given the many uncertainties inherent in the assessment of this evidence base and the sensitivity of health impact calculations to small changes in the magnitude of the HRs, calculation of the impact on health of policies to reduce long-term exposure to NO2 should use prediction intervals and report ranges of impact rather than focusing upon point estimates.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal

A semi-Markov model for stroke with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring.

This paper presents a parametric method of fitting semi-Markov models with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring. We investigate transition intensities in a three-state illness-death model with no recovery. We relax the Markov assumption by adjusting the intensity for the transition from state 2 (illness) to state 3 (death) for the time spent in state 2 through a time-varying covariate. This involves the exact time of the transition from state 1 (healthy) to state 2. When the data are subject to left or interval censoring, this time is unknown. In the estimation of the likelihood, we take into account interval censoring by integrating out all possible times for the transition from state 1 to state 2. For left censoring, we use an Expectation-Maximisation inspired algorithm. A simulation study reflects the performance of the method. The proposed combination of statistical procedures provides great flexibility. We illustrate the method in an application by using data on stroke onset for the older population from the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study

Human monoclonal islet specific autoantibodies share features of islet cell and 64 kDa antibodies

The first human monoclonal islet cell antibodies of the IgG class (MICA 1-6) obtained from an individual with Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus were cytoplasmic islet cell antibodies selected by the indirect immunofluorescence test on pancreas sections. Surprisingly, they all recognized the 64 kDa autoantigen glutamate decarboxylase. In this study we investigated which typical features of cytoplasmic islet cell antibodies are represented by these monoclonals. We show by double immunofluorescence testing that MICA 1-6 stain pancreatic beta cells which is in agreement with the beta-cell specific expression of glutamate decarboxylase. In contrast an islet-reactive IgM monoclonal antibody obtained from a pre-diabetic individual stained all islet cells but lacked the tissue specificity of MICA 1-6 and must therefore be considered as a polyreactive IgM-antibody. We further demonstrate that MICA 1-6 revealed typical features of epitope sensitivity to biochemical treatment of the target tissue which has been demonstrated for islet cell antibodies, and which has been used to argue for a lipid rather than a protein nature of target antigens. Our results provide direct evidence that the epitopes recognized by the MICA are destroyed by methanol/chloroform treatment but reveal a high stability to Pronase digestion compared to proinsulin epitopes. Conformational protein epitopes in glutamate decarboxylase therefore show a sensitivity to biochemical treatment of sections such as ganglioside epitopes. MICA 1-6 share typical features of islet cell and 64 kDa antibodies and reveal that glutamate decarboxylase-reactive islet cell antibodies represent a subgroup of islet cell antibodies present in islet cell antibody-positive sera

The impact of predation by marine mammals on Patagonian toothfish longline fisheries

Predatory interaction of marine mammals with longline fisheries is observed globally, leading to partial or complete loss of the catch and in some parts of the world to considerable financial loss. Depredation can also create additional unrecorded fishing mortality of a stock and has the potential to introduce bias to stock assessments. Here we aim to characterise depredation in the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) fishery around South Georgia focusing on the spatio-temporal component of these interactions. Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), and orcas (Orcinus orca) frequently feed on fish hooked on longlines around South Georgia. A third of longlines encounter sperm whales, but loss of catch due to sperm whales is insignificant when compared to that due to orcas, which interact with only 5% of longlines but can take more than half of the catch in some cases. Orca depredation around South Georgia is spatially limited and focused in areas of putative migration routes, and the impact is compounded as a result of the fishery also concentrating in those areas at those times. Understanding the seasonal behaviour of orcas and the spatial and temporal distribution of “depredation hot spots” can reduce marine mammal interactions, will improve assessment and management of the stock and contribute to increased operational efficiency of the fishery. Such information is valuable in the effort to resolve the human-mammal conflict for resources

Evidence for Shear Stress-Mediated Dilation of the Internal Carotid Artery in Humans.

Increases in arterial carbon dioxide tension (hypercapnia) elicit potent vasodilation of cerebral arterioles. Recent studies have also reported vasodilation of the internal carotid artery during hypercapnia, but the mechanism(s) mediating this extracranial vasoreactivity are unknown. Hypercapnia increases carotid shear stress, a known stimulus to vasodilation in other conduit arteries. To explore the hypothesis that shear stress contributes to hypercapnic internal carotid dilation in humans, temporal changes in internal and common carotid shear rate and diameter, along with changes in middle cerebral artery velocity, were simultaneously assessed in 18 subjects at rest and during hypercapnia (6% carbon dioxide). Middle cerebral artery velocity increased significantly (69±10-103±17 cm/s; P<0.01) along with shear in both the internal (316±52-518±105 1/s; P<0.01) and common (188±40-275±61 1/s; P<0.01) carotids. Diameter also increased (P<0.01) in both carotid arteries (internal: +6.3±2.9%; common: +5.8±3.0%). Following hypercapnia onset, there was a significant delay between the onset of internal carotid shear (22±12 seconds) and diameter change (85±51 seconds). This time course is associated with shear-mediated dilation of larger conduit arteries in humans. There was a strong association between change in shear and diameter of the internal carotid (r=0.68; P<0.01). These data indicate, for the first time in humans, that shear stress is an important stimulus for hypercapnic vasodilation of the internal carotid artery. The combination of a hypercapnic stimulus and continuous noninvasive, high-resolution assessment of internal carotid shear and dilation may provide novel insights into the function and health of the clinically important extracranial arteries in humans

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Brief Report: AIP Mutation in Pituitary Adenomas in the 18th Century and Today

From New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 364, issue 1, p.43-50. Copyright © (2011) Massachusetts Medical Society. Reprinted with permission.Gigantism results when a growth hormone–secreting pituitary adenoma is present before epiphyseal fusion. In 1909, when Harvey Cushing examined the skeleton of an Irish patient who lived from 1761 to 1783,1-3 he noted an enlarged pituitary fossa. We extracted DNA from the patient’s teeth and identified a germline mutation in the aryl hydrocarbon–interacting protein gene (AIP). Four contemporary Northern Irish families who presented with gigantism, acromegaly, or prolactinoma have the same mutation and haplotype associated with the mutated gene. Using coalescent theory, we infer that these persons share a common ancestor who lived about 57 to 66 generations earlier

Bisphenol A exposure in Mexico City and risk of prematurity: a pilot nested case control study

Abstract Background Presence of Bisphenol A (BPA) has been documented worldwide in a variety of human biological samples. There is growing evidence that low level BPA exposure may impact placental tissue development and thyroid function in humans. The aim of this present pilot study was to determine urinary concentrations of BPA during the last trimester of pregnancy among a small subset of women in Mexico City, Mexico and relate these concentrations to risk of delivering prematurely. Methods A nested case-control subset of 60 participants in the Early Life Exposure in Mexico to ENvironmental Toxicants (ELEMENT) study in Mexico City, Mexico were selected based on delivering less than or equal to 37 weeks of gestation and greater than 37 weeks of gestation. Third trimester archived spot urine samples were analyzed by online solid phase extraction coupled with high performance liquid chromatography isotope dilution tandem mass spectrometry. Results BPA was detected in 80.0% (N = 48) of the urine samples; total concentrations ranged from &lt; 0.4 &#956;g/L to 6.7 &#956;g/L; uncorrected geometric mean was 1.52 &#956;g/L. The adjusted odds ratio of delivering less than or equal to 37 weeks in relation to specific gravity adjusted third trimester BPA concentration was 1.91 (95%CI 0.93, 3.91, p-value = 0.08). When cases were further restricted to births occurring prior to the 37th week (n = 12), the odds ratio for specific-gravity adjusted BPA was larger and statistically significant (p &lt; 0.05). Conclusions This is the first study to document measurable levels of BPA in the urine of a population of Mexican women. This study also provides preliminary evidence, based on a single spot urine sample collected during the third trimester, that pregnant women who delivered less than or equal to 37 weeks of gestation and prematurely (&lt; 37 weeks) had higher urinary concentrations of BPA compared to women delivering after 37 weeks.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78251/1/1476-069X-9-62.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78251/2/1476-069X-9-62.pdfPeer Reviewe

‘Do i care?’ young adults' recalled experiences of early adolescent overweight and obesity: a qualitative study

&lt;p&gt;Objective: Individual behaviour change to reduce obesity requires awareness of, and concern about, weight. This paper therefore describes how young adults, known to have been overweight or obese during early adolescence, recalled early adolescent weight-related awareness and concerns. Associations between recalled concerns and weight-, health- and peer-related survey responses collected during adolescence are also examined.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Design: Qualitative semi-structured interviews with young adults; data compared with responses to self-report questionnaires obtained in adolescence.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Participants: A total of 35 participants, purposively sub-sampled at age 24 from a longitudinal study of a school year cohort, previously surveyed at ages 11, 13 and 15. Physical measures during previous surveys allowed identification of participants with a body mass index (BMI) indicative of overweight or obesity (based on British 1990 growth reference) during early adolescence. Overall, 26 had been obese, of whom 11 had BMI99.6th centile, whereas 9 had been overweight (BMI=95th–97.9th centile).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Measures: Qualitative interview responses describing teenage life, with prompts for school-, social- and health-related concerns. Early adolescent self-report questionnaire data on weight-worries, self-esteem, friends and victimisation (closed questions).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: Most, but not all recalled having been aware of their overweight. None referred to themselves as having been obese. None recalled weight-related health worries. Recollection of early adolescent obesity varied from major concerns impacting on much of an individual's life to almost no concern, with little relation to actual severity of overweight. Recalled concerns were not clearly patterned by gender, but young adult males recalling concerns had previously reported more worries about weight, lower self-esteem, fewer friends and more victimisation in early adolescence; no such pattern was seen among females. Conclusion: The popular image of the unhappy overweight teenager was not borne out. Many obese adolescents, although well aware of their overweight recalled neither major dissatisfaction nor concern. Weight-reduction behaviours are unlikely in such circumstances.&lt;/p&gt