Transmission tree of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) epidemic in Israel, 2015

The transmission tree of the Israeli 2015 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) was modelled by combining the spatio-temporal distribution of the outbreaks and the genetic distance between virus isolates. The most likely successions of transmission events were determined and transmission parameters were estimated. It was found that the median infectious pressure exerted at 1 km was 1.59 times (95% CI 1.04, 6.01) and 3.54 times (95% CI 1.09, 131.75) higher than that exerted at 2 and 5 km, respectively, and that three farms were responsible for all seven transmission events. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-016-0393-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Whole-brain functional hypoconnectivity as an endophenotype of autism in adolescents.

Endophenotypes are heritable and quantifiable markers that may assist in the identification of the complex genetic underpinnings of psychiatric conditions. Here we examined global hypoconnectivity as an endophenotype of autism spectrum conditions (ASCs). We studied well-matched groups of adolescent males with autism, genetically-related siblings of individuals with autism, and typically-developing control participants. We parcellated the brain into 258 regions and used complex-network analysis to detect a robust hypoconnectivity endophenotype in our participant group. We observed that whole-brain functional connectivity was highest in controls, intermediate in siblings, and lowest in ASC, in task and rest conditions. We identified additional, local endophenotype effects in specific networks including the visual processing and default mode networks. Our analyses are the first to show that whole-brain functional hypoconnectivity is an endophenotype of autism in adolescence, and may thus underlie the heritable similarities seen in adolescents with ASC and their relatives.The authors wish to thank the participants and their families for their participation and the autism support organisations who assisted with recruitment. We thank colleagues at the Brain Mapping Unit for methodological discussions and thank Meng-Chuan Lai, Amber Ruigrok and Richard Bethlehem for the same. Data collection was funded by a Clinical Scientist Fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) (G0701919) to MDS. LRC was supported by the Gates Cambridge Scholarship Trust. The study was conducted in associated with the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for Cambridgeshire, and Peterborough National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust. The present analysis was funded by a NARSAD Young Investigator award (to MR) and by the Isaac Newton Trust (to MR); RJFY is additionally supported by a Rubicon Fellowship from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research. The Brain Mapping Unit (MR, RLM, RJFY, JS and ETB) is part of the Behavioural & Clinical Neuroscience Institute, which is funded by the MRC and the Wellcome Trust. High performance computing facilities were supported by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nicl.2015.07.01

Epidemic reconstruction in a Phylogenetics framework:Transmission trees as partitions of the node set

The reconstruction of transmission trees for epidemics from genetic data has been the subject of some recent interest. It has been demonstrated that the transmission tree structure can be investigated by augmenting internal nodes of a phylogenetic tree constructed using pathogen sequences from the epidemic with information about the host that held the corresponding lineage. In this paper, we note that this augmentation is equivalent to a correspondence between transmission trees and partitions of the phylogenetic tree into connected subtrees each containing one tip, and provide a framework for Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference of phylogenies that are partitioned in this way, giving a new method to co-estimate both trees. The procedure is integrated in the existing phylogenetic inference package BEAST.Comment: 40 pages, 3 figure

Interpreting whole genome sequencing for investigating tuberculosis transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is becoming an important part of epidemiological investigations of infectious diseases due to greater resolution and cost reductions compared to traditional typing approaches. Many public health and clinical teams will increasingly use WGS to investigate clusters of potential pathogen transmission, making it crucial to understand the benefits and assumptions of the analytical methods for investigating the data. We aimed to understand how different approaches affect inferences of transmission dynamics and outline limitations of the methods. METHODS: We comprehensively searched electronic databases for studies that presented methods used to interpret WGS data for investigating tuberculosis (TB) transmission. Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data. Due to considerable methodological heterogeneity between studies, we present summary data with accompanying narrative synthesis rather than pooled analyses. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies met our inclusion criteria. Despite the range of interpretation tools, the usefulness of WGS data in understanding TB transmission often depends on the amount of genetic diversity in the setting. Where diversity is small, distinguishing re-infections from relapses may be impossible; interpretation may be aided by the use of epidemiological data, examining minor variants and deep sequencing. Conversely, when within-host diversity is large, due to genetic hitchhiking or co-infection of two dissimilar strains, it is critical to understand how it arose. Greater understanding of microevolution and mixed infection will enhance interpretation of WGS data. CONCLUSIONS: As sequencing studies have sampled more intensely and integrated multiple sources of information, the understanding of TB transmission and diversity has grown, but there is still much to be learnt about the origins of diversity that will affect inferences from these data. Public health teams and researchers should combine epidemiological, clinical and WGS data to strengthen investigations of transmission

Genetic Data Provide Evidence for Wind-Mediated Transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry can cause severe economic damage and represent a public health threat. Development of efficient containment measures requires an understanding of how these influenza viruses are transmitted between farms. However, the actual mechanisms of interfarm transmission are largely unknown. Dispersal of infectious material by wind has been suggested, but never demonstrated, as a possible cause of transmission between farms. Here we provide statistical evidence that the direction of spread of avian influenza A(H7N7) is correlated with the direction of wind at date of infection. Using detailed genetic and epidemiological data, we found the direction of spread by reconstructing the transmission tree for a large outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003. We conservatively estimate the contribution of a possible wind-mediated mechanism to the total amount of spread during this outbreak to be around 18%

Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. RESULTS: In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries.The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and more advanced methods for formal model fitting and sensitivity analyses. Insights gained from these models could be broadened to a wider range of pathogens and settings. Improvements in the availability of data and statistical methods could enhance the predictive ability of models