Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed

Recognition of cancer warning signs and anticipated time to help-seeking in a population sample of adults in the UK

Background: Not recognising a symptom as suspicious is a common reason given by cancer patients for delayed help-seeking; but inevitably this is retrospective. We therefore investigated associations between recognition of warning signs for breast, colorectal and lung cancer and anticipated time to help-seeking for symptoms of each cancer. Methods: Computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted with a population-representative sample (N=6965) of UK adults age greater than or equal to50 years, using the Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer scale. Anticipated time to help-seeking for persistent cough, rectal bleeding and breast changes was categorised as >2 vs less than or equal to2 weeks. Recognition of persistent cough, unexplained bleeding and unexplained lump as cancer warning signs was assessed (yes/no). Associations between recognition and help-seeking were examined for each symptom controlling for demographics and perceived ease of health-care access. Results: For each symptom, the odds of waiting for >2 weeks were significantly increased in those who did not recognise the related warning sign: breast changes: OR=2.45, 95% CI 1.47–4.08; rectal bleeding: OR=1.77, 1.36–2.30; persistent cough: OR=1.30, 1.17–1.46, independent of demographics and health-care access. Conclusion: Recognition of warning signs was associated with anticipating faster help-seeking for potential symptoms of cancer. Strategies to improve recognition are likely to facilitate earlier diagnosis

Quenched QCD with fixed-point and chirally improved fermion

In this contribution we present results from quenched QCD simulations with the parameterized fixed-point (FP) and the chirally improved (CI) Dirac operator. Both these operators are approximate solutions of the Ginsparg-Wilson equation and have good chiral properties. We focus our discussion on observables sensitive to chirality. In particular we explore pion masses down to 210 MeV in light hadron spectroscopy, quenched chiral logs, the pion decay constant and the pion scattering length. We discuss finite volume effects, scaling properties of the FP and CI operators and performance issues in their numerical implementation.Comment: Lattice2002(chiral), 17 pages, 21 figures, (LaTeX style file espcrc2.sty and AMS style files

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Grand Challenges: Improving HIV Treatment Outcomes by Integrating Interventions for Co-Morbid Mental Illness.

In the fourth article of a five-part series providing a global perspective on integrating mental health, Sylvia Kaaya and colleagues discuss the importance of integrating mental health interventions into HIV prevention and treatment platforms. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Thermodynamics for spatially inhomogeneous magnetization and Young-Gibbs measures

We derive thermodynamic functionals for spatially inhomogeneous magnetization on a torus in the context of an Ising spin lattice model. We calculate the corresponding free energy and pressure (by applying an appropriate external field using a quadratic Kac potential) and show that they are related via a modified Legendre transform. The local properties of the infinite volume Gibbs measure, related to whether a macroscopic configuration is realized as a homogeneous state or as a mixture of pure states, are also studied by constructing the corresponding Young-Gibbs measures

Entanglement entropy of Wilson surfaces from bubbling geometries in M-theory

We consider solutions of eleven-dimensional supergravity constructed in [1,2] that are half-BPS, locally asymptotic to $AdS_7\times S^4$ and are the holographic dual of heavy Wilson surfaces in the six-dimensional $(2,0)$ theory. Using these bubbling solutions we calculate the holographic entanglement entropy for a spherical entangling surface in the presence of a planar Wilson surface. In addition, we calculate the holographic stress tensor and, by evaluating the on-shell supergravity action, the expectation value of the Wilson surface operator.Comment: 42 pages, 4 figures, v2: minor modification

Communication about colorectal cancer screening in Britain:public preferences for an expert recommendation

BACKGROUND: Informed decision-making approaches to cancer screening emphasise the importance of decisions being determined by individuals' own values and preferences. However, advice from a trusted source may also contribute to autonomous decision-making. This study examined preferences regarding a recommendation from the NHS and information provision in the context of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. METHODS: In face-to-face interviews, a population-based sample of adults across Britain (n=1964; age 50–80 years) indicated their preference between: (1) a strong recommendation to participate in CRC screening, (2) a recommendation alongside advice to make an individual decision, and (3) no recommendation but advice to make an individual decision. Other measures included trust in the NHS and preferences for information on benefits and risks. RESULTS: Most respondents (84%) preferred a recommendation (47% strong recommendation, 37% recommendation plus individual decision-making advice), but the majority also wanted full information on risks (77%) and benefits (78%). Men were more in favour of a recommendation than women (86% vs 81%). Trust in the NHS was high overall, but the minority who expressed low trust were less likely to want a recommendation. CONCLUSION: Most British adults want full information on risks and benefits of screening but they also want a recommendation from an authoritative source. An ‘expert' view may be an important part of autonomous health decision-making

Use of low-dose oral theophylline as an adjunct to inhaled corticosteroids in preventing exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and health-care costs. An incomplete response to the anti-inflammatory effects of inhaled corticosteroids is present in COPD. Preclinical work indicates that 'low dose' theophylline improves steroid responsiveness. The Theophylline With Inhaled Corticosteroids (TWICS) trial investigates whether the addition of 'low dose' theophylline to inhaled corticosteroids has clinical and cost-effective benefits in COPD. METHOD/DESIGN: TWICS is a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial conducted in primary and secondary care sites in the UK. The inclusion criteria are the following: an established predominant respiratory diagnosis of COPD (post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in first second/forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC] of less than 0.7), age of at least 40 years, smoking history of at least 10 pack-years, current inhaled corticosteroid use, and history of at least two exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics or oral corticosteroids in the previous year. A computerised randomisation system will stratify 1424 participants by region and recruitment setting (primary and secondary) and then randomly assign with equal probability to intervention or control arms. Participants will receive either 'low dose' theophylline (Uniphyllin MR 200 mg tablets) or placebo for 52 weeks. Dosing is based on pharmacokinetic modelling to achieve a steady-state serum theophylline of 1-5 mg/l. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg once daily (or placebo once daily) will be taken by participants who do not smoke or participants who smoke but have an ideal body weight (IBW) of not more than 60 kg. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg twice daily (or placebo twice daily) will be taken by participants who smoke and have an IBW of more than 60 kg. Participants will be reviewed at recruitment and after 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is the total number of participant-reported COPD exacerbations requiring oral corticosteroids or antibiotics during the 52-week treatment period. DISCUSSION: The demonstration that 'low dose' theophylline increases the efficacy of inhaled corticosteroids in COPD by reducing the incidence of exacerbations is relevant not only to patients and clinicians but also to health-care providers, both in the UK and globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27066620 was registered on Sept. 19, 2013, and the first subject was randomly assigned on Feb. 6, 2014