Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Globular Cluster Distance Determinations

The present status of the distance scale to Galactic globular clusters is reviewed. Six distance determination techniques which are deemed to be most reliable are discussed in depth. These different techniques are used to calibrate the absolute magnitude of the RR Lyrae stars. The various calibrations fall into three groups. Main sequence fitting using Hipparcos parallaxes, theoretical HB models and the RR Lyrae in the LMC all favor a bright calibration, implying a `long' globular cluster distance scale. White dwarf fitting and the astrometric distances yield a somewhat fainter RR Lyrae calibration, while the statistical parallax solution yields faint RR Lyrae stars implying a `short' distance scale to globular clusters. Various secondary distance indicators discussed all favor the long distance scale. The `long' and `short' distance scales differ by (0.31+/-0.16) mag. Averaging together all of the different distance determinations yields Mv(RR) = (0.23+/-0.04)([Fe/H] + 1.6) + (0.56+/-0.12) mag.Comment: Invited review article to appear in: `Post-Hipparcos Cosmic Candles', A. Heck & F. Caputo (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in pres

Entanglement entropy of Wilson surfaces from bubbling geometries in M-theory

We consider solutions of eleven-dimensional supergravity constructed in [1,2] that are half-BPS, locally asymptotic to $AdS_7\times S^4$ and are the holographic dual of heavy Wilson surfaces in the six-dimensional $(2,0)$ theory. Using these bubbling solutions we calculate the holographic entanglement entropy for a spherical entangling surface in the presence of a planar Wilson surface. In addition, we calculate the holographic stress tensor and, by evaluating the on-shell supergravity action, the expectation value of the Wilson surface operator.Comment: 42 pages, 4 figures, v2: minor modification

Quenched QCD with fixed-point and chirally improved fermion

In this contribution we present results from quenched QCD simulations with the parameterized fixed-point (FP) and the chirally improved (CI) Dirac operator. Both these operators are approximate solutions of the Ginsparg-Wilson equation and have good chiral properties. We focus our discussion on observables sensitive to chirality. In particular we explore pion masses down to 210 MeV in light hadron spectroscopy, quenched chiral logs, the pion decay constant and the pion scattering length. We discuss finite volume effects, scaling properties of the FP and CI operators and performance issues in their numerical implementation.Comment: Lattice2002(chiral), 17 pages, 21 figures, (LaTeX style file espcrc2.sty and AMS style files

Thermodynamics for spatially inhomogeneous magnetization and Young-Gibbs measures

We derive thermodynamic functionals for spatially inhomogeneous magnetization on a torus in the context of an Ising spin lattice model. We calculate the corresponding free energy and pressure (by applying an appropriate external field using a quadratic Kac potential) and show that they are related via a modified Legendre transform. The local properties of the infinite volume Gibbs measure, related to whether a macroscopic configuration is realized as a homogeneous state or as a mixture of pure states, are also studied by constructing the corresponding Young-Gibbs measures

Control of hyperglycaemia in paediatric intensive care (CHiP): study protocol.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that tight blood glucose (BG) control improves outcomes in critically ill adults. Children show similar hyperglycaemic responses to surgery or critical illness. However it is not known whether tight control will benefit children given maturational differences and different disease spectrum. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is an randomised open trial with two parallel groups to assess whether, for children undergoing intensive care in the UK aged <or= 16 years who are ventilated, have an arterial line in-situ and are receiving vasoactive support following injury, major surgery or in association with critical illness in whom it is anticipated such treatment will be required to continue for at least 12 hours, tight control will increase the numbers of days alive and free of mechanical ventilation at 30 days, and lead to improvement in a range of complications associated with intensive care treatment and be cost effective. Children in the tight control group will receive insulin by intravenous infusion titrated to maintain BG between 4 and 7.0 mmol/l. Children in the control group will be treated according to a standard current approach to BG management. Children will be followed up to determine vital status and healthcare resources usage between discharge and 12 months post-randomisation. Information regarding overall health status, global neurological outcome, attention and behavioural status will be sought from a subgroup with traumatic brain injury (TBI). A difference of 2 days in the number of ventilator-free days within the first 30 days post-randomisation is considered clinically important. Conservatively assuming a standard deviation of a week across both trial arms, a type I error of 1% (2-sided test), and allowing for non-compliance, a total sample size of 1000 patients would have 90% power to detect this difference. To detect effect differences between cardiac and non-cardiac patients, a target sample size of 1500 is required. An economic evaluation will assess whether the costs of achieving tight BG control are justified by subsequent reductions in hospitalisation costs. DISCUSSION: The relevance of tight glycaemic control in this population needs to be assessed formally before being accepted into standard practice

Quantum physics in inertial and gravitational fields

Covariant generalizations of well-known wave equations predict the existence of inertial-gravitational effects for a variety of quantum systems that range from Bose-Einstein condensates to particles in accelerators. Additional effects arise in models that incorporate Born reciprocity principle and the notion of a maximal acceleration. Some specific examples are discussed in detail.Comment: 25 pages,1 figure,to appear in "Relativity in Rotating Frame

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Grand Challenges: Improving HIV Treatment Outcomes by Integrating Interventions for Co-Morbid Mental Illness.

In the fourth article of a five-part series providing a global perspective on integrating mental health, Sylvia Kaaya and colleagues discuss the importance of integrating mental health interventions into HIV prevention and treatment platforms. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary