Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed

Scaling up malaria elimination management and leadership: a pilot in three provinces in Zimbabwe, 2016-2018

BACKGROUND: Focus for improved malaria programme performance is often placed on the technical challenges, while operational issues are neglected. Many of the operational challenges that inhibit malaria programme effectiveness can be addressed by improving communication and coordination, increasing accountability, maintaining motivation, providing adequate training and supervision, and removing bureaucratic silos. METHODS: A programme of work was piloted in Zimbabwe with one malaria eliminating province, Matabeleland South in 2016-2017, and scaled up to include two other provinces, Matabeleland North and Midlands, in 2017-2018. The intervention included participatory, organization development and quality improvement methods. RESULTS: Workshop participants in Matabeleland South reported an improvement in data management. In Matabeleland North, motivation among nurses improved as they gained confidence in case management from training, and overall staff morale improved. There was also an improvement in data quality and data sharing. In Midlands, the poorly performing district was motivated to improve, and both participating districts became more goal-oriented. They also became more focused on monitoring their data regularly. Participants from all provinces reported having gained skills in listening, communicating, facilitating discussions, and making presentations. Participation in the intervention changed the mindset of malaria programme staff, increasing ownership and accountability, and empowering them to identify and solve problems, make decisions, and act within their sphere of influence, elevating challenges when appropriate. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot demonstrates that a participatory, organization development and quality improvement approach has broad ranging effects, including improving local delivery of interventions, tailoring strategies to target specific populations, finding efficiencies in the system that could not be found using the traditional top-down approach, and improving motivation and communication between different cadres of health workers. Scale-up of this simple model can be achieved and benefits sustained over time if the process is imbedded into the programme with the training of health staff who can serve as management improvement coaches. Methods to improve operational performance that are scalable at the district level are urgently needed: this approach is a possible tactic that can significantly contribute to the achievement of global malaria eradication goals

Peripheral arterial volume distensibility changes with applied external pressure: significant difference between arteries with different compliance

This study aimed to quantify the different effect of external cuff pressure on arterial volume distensibility between peripheral arteries with different compliance. 30 healthy subjects were studied with the arm at two positions (0° and 45° from the horizontal level) to introduce different compliance of arteries. The electrocardiogram and finger and ear photoplethysmograms were recorded simultaneously under five external cuff pressures (0, 10, 20, 30 and 40 mmHg) on the whole arm to obtain arterial volume distensibility. With the applied external cuff pressures of 10, 20, 30 and 40 mmHg, the overall changes in arterial volume distensibility referred to those without external pressure were 0.010, 0.029, 0.054 and 0.108% per mmHg for the arm at the horizontal level, and 0.026, 0.071, 0.170 and 0.389% per mmHg for the arm at 45° from the horizontal level, confirming the non-linearity between arterial volume distensibility and external pressure. More interestingly, the significant differences in arterial volume distensibility changes were observed between the two arm positions, which were 0.016, 0.043, 0.116 and 0.281% per mmHg (all P < 0.01). Our findings demonstrated that arterial volume distensibility of peripheral arm arteries increased with external pressure, with a greater effect for more compliant arteries

Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: a case-series analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High temperature and humidity conditions are associated with short-term elevations in the mortality rate in many United States cities. Previous research has quantified this relationship in an aggregate manner over large metropolitan areas, but within these areas the response may differ based on local-scale variability in climate, population characteristics, and socio-economic factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the mortality response for 48 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) comprising Philadelphia County, PA to determine if certain areas are associated with elevated risk during high heat stress conditions. A randomization test was used to identify mortality exceedances for various apparent temperature thresholds at both the city and local scale. We then sought to identify the environmental, demographic, and social factors associated with high-risk areas via principal components regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Citywide mortality increases by 9.3% on days following those with apparent temperatures over 34°C observed at 7:00 p.m. local time. During these conditions, elevated mortality rates were found for 10 of the 48 ZCTAs concentrated in the west-central portion of the County. Factors related to high heat mortality risk included proximity to locally high surface temperatures, low socioeconomic status, high density residential zoning, and age.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Within the larger Philadelphia metropolitan area, there exists statistically significant fine-scale spatial variability in the mortality response to high apparent temperatures. Future heat warning systems and mitigation and intervention measures could target these high risk areas to reduce the burden of extreme weather on summertime morbidity and mortality.</p

Biological foundation for periodontitis as a potential risk factor for atherosclerosis

Links between periodontal diseases and systemic diseases have been well documented by epidemiological studies. Recently, research has shifted to elucidating the biologic mechanism for a causal relationship. One focus of interest is atherosclerosis, the underlying event of cardiovascular diseases due to its serious health impact. However, it is still not clear whether periodontopathic pathogens are truly etiologic agents or ubiquitous bystanders. This article reviews the current understanding about the molecular biological interactions between periodontal disease and atherosclerosis and the biological plausibility of periodontitis as a potential risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Materials and methods:  The current literature regarding periodontal diseases and atherosclerosis and coronary vascular disease was searched using the Medline and PubMed databases. Results:  In vitro experiments and animal models are appropriate tools to investigate the biological interactions between periodontal disease and atherosclerosis at the cell molecular level. The concepts linking both pathologies refer to inflammatory response, immune responses, and hemostasis. In particular, Porphyromonas gingivalis appears to have unique, versatile pathogenic properties. Whether or not these findings from isolated cells or animal models are applicable in humans with genetic and environmental variations is yet to be determined. Likewise, the benefit from periodontal therapy on the development of atherosclerosis is unclear. Approaches targeting inflammatory and immune responses of periodontitis and atherosclerosis simultaneously are very intriguing. Conclusion:  An emerging concept suggests that a pathogenic burden from different sources might overcome an individual threshold culminating in clinical sequela. P. gingivalis contributes directly and indirectly to atherosclerosis.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66109/1/j.1600-0765.2004.00771.x.pd

The effects of second-hand smoke on biological processes important in atherogenesis

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death in western societies and cigarette smoke is among the factors that strongly contribute to the development of this disease. The early events in atherogenesis are stimulated on the one hand by cytokines that chemoattract leukocytes and on the other hand by decrease in circulating molecules that protect endothelial cells (ECs) from injury. Here we focus our studies on the effects of "second-hand" smoke on atherogenesis. METHODS: To perform these studies, a smoking system that closely simulates exposure of humans to second-hand smoke was developed and a mouse model system transgenic for human apoB(100 )was used. These mice have moderate lipid levels that closely mimic human conditions that lead to atherosclerotic plaque formation. RESULTS: "Second-hand" cigarette smoke decreases plasma high density lipoprotein levels in the blood and also decreases the ratios between high density lipoprotein and low density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein and triglyceride, and high density lipoprotein and total cholesterol. This change in lipid profiles causes not only more lipid accumulation in the aorta but also lipid deposition in many of the smaller vessels of the heart and in hepatocytes. In addition, mice exposed to smoke have increased levels of Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein–1 in circulation and in the heart/aorta tissue, have increased macrophages in the arterial walls, and have decreased levels of adiponectin, an EC-protective protein. Also, cytokine arrays revealed that mice exposed to smoke do not undergo the switch from the pro-inflammatory cytokine profile (that develops when the mice are initially exposed to second-hand smoke) to the adaptive response. Furthermore, triglyceride levels increase significantly in the liver of smoke-exposed mice. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to "second-hand" smoke creates a state of permanent inflammation and an imbalance in the lipid profile that leads to lipid accumulation in the liver and in the blood vessels of the heart and aorta. The former potentially can lead to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the latter to heart attacks

Sizing Up Allometric Scaling Theory

Metabolic rate, heart rate, lifespan, and many other physiological properties vary with body mass in systematic and interrelated ways. Present empirical data suggest that these scaling relationships take the form of power laws with exponents that are simple multiples of one quarter. A compelling explanation of this observation was put forward a decade ago by West, Brown, and Enquist (WBE). Their framework elucidates the link between metabolic rate and body mass by focusing on the dynamics and structure of resource distribution networks—the cardiovascular system in the case of mammals. Within this framework the WBE model is based on eight assumptions from which it derives the well-known observed scaling exponent of 3/4. In this paper we clarify that this result only holds in the limit of infinite network size (body mass) and that the actual exponent predicted by the model depends on the sizes of the organisms being studied. Failure to clarify and to explore the nature of this approximation has led to debates about the WBE model that were at cross purposes. We compute analytical expressions for the finite-size corrections to the 3/4 exponent, resulting in a spectrum of scaling exponents as a function of absolute network size. When accounting for these corrections over a size range spanning the eight orders of magnitude observed in mammals, the WBE model predicts a scaling exponent of 0.81, seemingly at odds with data. We then proceed to study the sensitivity of the scaling exponent with respect to variations in several assumptions that underlie the WBE model, always in the context of finite-size corrections. Here too, the trends we derive from the model seem at odds with trends detectable in empirical data. Our work illustrates the utility of the WBE framework in reasoning about allometric scaling, while at the same time suggesting that the current canonical model may need amendments to bring its predictions fully in line with available datasets

Genome-Wide Functional Profiling Reveals Genes Required for Tolerance to Benzene Metabolites in Yeast

Benzene is a ubiquitous environmental contaminant and is widely used in industry. Exposure to benzene causes a number of serious health problems, including blood disorders and leukemia. Benzene undergoes complex metabolism in humans, making mechanistic determination of benzene toxicity difficult. We used a functional genomics approach to identify the genes that modulate the cellular toxicity of three of the phenolic metabolites of benzene, hydroquinone (HQ), catechol (CAT) and 1,2,4-benzenetriol (BT), in the model eukaryote Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Benzene metabolites generate oxidative and cytoskeletal stress, and tolerance requires correct regulation of iron homeostasis and the vacuolar ATPase. We have identified a conserved bZIP transcription factor, Yap3p, as important for a HQ-specific response pathway, as well as two genes that encode putative NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductases, PST2 and YCP4. Many of the yeast genes identified have human orthologs that may modulate human benzene toxicity in a similar manner and could play a role in benzene exposure-related disease