Unbiased Rare Event Sampling in Spatial Stochastic Systems Biology Models Using a Weighted Ensemble of Trajectories

The long-term goal of connecting scales in biological simulation can be facilitated by scale-agnostic methods. We demonstrate that the weighted ensemble (WE) strategy, initially developed for molecular simulations, applies effectively to spatially resolved cell-scale simulations. The WE approach runs an ensemble of parallel trajectories with assigned weights and uses a statistical resampling strategy of replicating and pruning trajectories to focus computational effort on difficult-to-sample regions. The method can also generate unbiased estimates of non-equilibrium and equilibrium observables, sometimes with significantly less aggregate computing time than would be possible using standard parallelization. Here, we use WE to orchestrate particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, which include spatial geometry (e.g., of organelles, plasma membrane) and biochemical interactions among mobile molecular species. We study a series of models exhibiting spatial, temporal and biochemical complexity and show that although WE has important limitations, it can achieve performance significantly exceeding standard parallel simulation—by orders of magnitude for some observables

The impact generated by public and charity-funded research in the UK: A systematic literature review

Objective: To identify, synthesize and critically assess the empirical evidence of the impact generated by public and charity funded health research in the United Kingdom. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review of the empirical evidence published in English in peer-reviewed journals between 2006 and 2017. Studies meeting the inclusion criteria were selected and their findings were analysed using the Payback Framework into five main categories: knowledge, benefits to future research and research use, benefits from informing policy and product development, health and health sector benefits and broader economic benefits. We assessed the studies for risk of selection, reporting and funding bias. Results: Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria. The majority of the studies (10 out of 13) assessed impact at multiple domains including the main 5 key themes of the Payback Framework. All of them showed a positive impact of funded research on outcomes. Of those studies, one presented low risk of bias (8%), 6 studies were classified as presenting moderate risk of bias (46%) and 6 studies presented high risk of bias (46%). Conclusions: Empirical evidence on the impact of public and charity funded research is still limited and subject to funding and selection bias. More work is needed to establish the causal effects of funded research on academic outcomes, policy, practice and the broader economy

Sub-luminous type Ia supernovae from the mergers of equal-mass white dwarfs with M~0.9 M_sun

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are thought to result from thermonuclear explosions of carbon-oxygen white dwarf stars. Existing models generally explain the observed properties, with the exception of the sub-luminous 1991-bg-like supernovae. It has long been suspected that the merger of two white dwarfs could give rise to a type Ia event, but hitherto simulations have failed to produce an explosion. Here we report a simulation of the merger of two equal-mass white dwarfs that leads to an underluminous explosion, though at the expense of requiring a single common-envelope phase, and component masses of ~0.9 M_sun. The light curve is too broad, but the synthesized spectra, red colour and low expansion velocities are all close to what is observed for sub-luminous 1991bg-like events. While mass ratios can be slightly less than one and still produce an underluminous event, the masses have to be in the range 0.83-0.9 M_sun.Comment: Accepted to Natur

Follicle-stimulating hormone in postmenopausal women living with HIV: a prevalence study

OBJECTIVES: We examined follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels in women living with HIV aged > 45 reporting ≥ 12 months' amenorrhoea, and investigated correlation with menopausal symptoms. METHODS: A cross-sectional substudy of 85 women from the Positive Transitions through the Menopause (PRIME) Study who reported irregular periods at entry into the PRIME Study and ≥ 12 months' amenorrhoea at recruitment into this substudy. Serum FSH was supplemented with clinical data and menopausal symptom assessment. Serum FSH > 30 mIU/mL was defined as consistent with postmenopausal status. Associations between FSH and menopausal symptom severity were assessed using Pearson's correlation and the Kruskal-Wallis test. RESULTS: Median age was 53 years [interquartile range (IQR): 51-55]; all were on antiretroviral therapy, three-quarters (n = 65) had a CD4 T-cell count > 500 cells/μL and 91.8% (n = 78) had an HIV viral load (VL)  30 mIU/mL (40.8 vs. 30.5 kg/m2 ). Over a quarter (28.2%) reported severe menopausal symptoms, with no correlation between FSH and severity of menopausal symptoms (p = 0.21), or hot flushes (p = 0.37). CONCLUSIONS: Four women in this small substudy had low FSH despite being amenorrhoeic; all had BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2 . We found that 95% of women with HIV aged > 45 years reporting ≥ 12 months' amenorrhoea had elevated FSH, suggesting that menopausal status can be ascertained from menstrual history alone in this group

COVID-19 mortality among people with diagnosed HIV compared to those without during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England

Objectives: We describe COVID-19 mortality among people with and without HIV during the first wave of the pandemic in England. / Methods: National surveillance data on adults (aged ≥ 15 years) with diagnosed HIV resident in England were linked to national COVID-19 mortality surveillance data (2 March 2020–16 June 2020); HIV clinicians verified linked cases and provided information on the circumstances of death. We present COVID-19 mortality rates by HIV status, using negative binomial regression to assess the association between HIV and mortality, adjusting for gender, age and ethnicity. / Results: Overall, 99 people with HIV, including 61 of black ethnicity, died of/with COVID-19 (107/100 000) compared with 49 483 people without HIV (109/100 000). Compared to people without HIV, higher COVID-19 mortality rates were observed in people with HIV of black (188 vs. 122/100 000) and Asian (131 vs. 77.0/100 000) ethnicity, and in both younger (15–59 years: 58.3 vs. 10.2/100 000) and older (≥ 60 years: 434 vs. 355/100 000) people. After adjustment for demographic factors, people with HIV had a higher COVID-19 mortality risk than those without (2.18; 95% CI: 1.76–2.70). Most people with HIV who died of/with COVID-19 had suppressed HIV viraemia (91%) and at least one comorbidity reported to be associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes (87%). / Conclusions: In the first wave of the pandemic in England, COVID-19 mortality among people with HIV was low, but was higher than in those without HIV, after controlling for demographic factors. This supports the strategy of prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination for people with HIV and strongly encouraging its uptake, especially in those of black and Asian ethnicity

Appropriate disclosure of a diagnosis of dementia : identifying the key behaviours of 'best practice'

Background: Despite growing evidence that many people with dementia want to know their diagnosis, there is wide variation in attitudes of professionals towards disclosure. The disclosure of the diagnosis of dementia is increasingly recognised as being a process rather than a one-off behaviour. However, the different behaviours that contribute to this process have not been comprehensively defined. No intervention studies to improve diagnostic disclosure in dementia have been reported to date. As part of a larger study to develop an intervention to promote appropriate disclosure, we sought to identify important disclosure behaviours and explore whether supplementing a literature review with other methods would result in the identification of new behaviours. Methods: To identify a comprehensive list of behaviours in disclosure we conducted a literature review, interviewed people with dementia and informal carers, and used a consensus process involving health and social care professionals. Content analysis of the full list of behaviours was carried out. Results: Interviews were conducted with four people with dementia and six informal carers. Eight health and social care professionals took part in the consensus panel. From the interviews, consensus panel and literature review 220 behaviours were elicited, with 109 behaviours over-lapping. The interviews and consensus panel elicited 27 behaviours supplementary to the review. Those from the interviews appeared to be self-evident but highlighted deficiencies in current practice and from the panel focused largely on balancing the needs of people with dementia and family members. Behaviours were grouped into eight categories: preparing for disclosure; integrating family members; exploring the patient's perspective; disclosing the diagnosis; responding to patient reactions; focusing on quality of life and well-being; planning for the future; and communicating effectively. Conclusion: This exercise has highlighted the complexity of the process of disclosing a diagnosis of dementia in an appropriate manner. It confirms that many of the behaviours identified in the literature (often based on professional opinion rather than empirical evidence) also resonate with people with dementia and informal carers. The presence of contradictory behaviours emphasises the need to tailor the process of disclosure to individual patients and carers. Our combined methods may be relevant to other efforts to identify and define complex clinical practices for further study.This project is funded by UK Medical Research Council, Grant reference number G0300999

Type Ia Supernovae as Stellar Endpoints and Cosmological Tools

Empirically, Type Ia supernovae are the most useful, precise, and mature tools for determining astronomical distances. Acting as calibrated candles they revealed the presence of dark energy and are being used to measure its properties. However, the nature of the SN Ia explosion, and the progenitors involved, have remained elusive, even after seven decades of research. But now new large surveys are bringing about a paradigm shift --- we can finally compare samples of hundreds of supernovae to isolate critical variables. As a result of this, and advances in modeling, breakthroughs in understanding all aspects of SNe Ia are finally starting to happen.Comment: Invited review for Nature Communications. Final published version. Shortened, update

Major depressive disorder and current psychological distress moderate the effect of polygenic risk for obesity on body mass index

We are grateful to the families who took part in GS:SFHS, the GPs and Scottish School of Primary Care for their help in recruiting them, and the whole GS team, which includes academic researchers, clinic staff, laboratory technicians, clerical workers, IT staff, statisticians and research managers. This work is supported by the Wellcome Trust through a Strategic Award, reference 104036/Z/14/Z. The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government and the Scottish Funding Council provided core support for Generation Scotland. GS:SFHS was funded by a grant from the Scottish Government Health Department, Chief Scientist Office, number CZD/16/6. We acknowledge with gratitude the financial support received for this work from the Dr Mortimer and Theresa Sackler Foundation. PT, DJP, IJD and AMM are members of The University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). Funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and Medical Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. DJM is an NRS Career Fellow, funded by the CSO. Supplementary Information accompanies the paper on the Translational Psychiatry websitePeer reviewedPublisher PD

Constraints on the Progenitor System of the Type Ia Supernova SN 2011fe/PTF11kly

Type Ia supernovae (SNe) serve as a fundamental pillar of modern cosmology, owing to their large luminosity and a well-defined relationship between light-curve shape and peak brightness. The precision distance measurements enabled by SNe Ia first revealed the accelerating expansion of the universe, now widely believed (though hardly understood) to require the presence of a mysterious "dark" energy. General consensus holds that Type Ia SNe result from thermonuclear explosions of a white dwarf (WD) in a binary system; however, little is known of the precise nature of the companion star and the physical properties of the progenitor system. Here we make use of extensive historical imaging obtained at the location of SN 2011fe/PTF11kly, the closest SN Ia discovered in the digital imaging era, to constrain the visible-light luminosity of the progenitor to be 10-100 times fainter than previous limits on other SN Ia progenitors. This directly rules out luminous red giants and the vast majority of helium stars as the mass-donating companion to the exploding white dwarf. Any evolved red companion must have been born with mass less than 3.5 times the mass of the Sun. These observations favour a scenario where the exploding WD of SN 2011fe/PTF11kly, accreted matter either from another WD, or by Roche-lobe overflow from a subgiant or main-sequence companion star.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, submitte