Answer changing in multiple choice assessment change that answer when in doubt – and spread the word!

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies during the last decades have shown that answer changing in multiple choice examinations is generally beneficial for examinees. In spite of this the common misbelief still prevails that answer changing in multiple choice examinations results in an increased number of wrong answers rather than an improved score. One suggested consequence of newer studies is that examinees should be informed about this misbelief in the hope that this prejudice might be eradicated. This study aims to confirm data from previous studies about the benefits of answer changing as well as pursue the question of whether students informed about the said advantageous effects of answer changing would indeed follow this advice and change significantly more answers. Furthermore a look is cast on how the overall examination performance and mean point increase of these students is affected.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The answer sheets to the end of term exams of 79 3^rdyear medical students at the University of Munich were analysed to confirm the benefits of answer changing. Students taking the test were randomized into two groups. Prior to taking the test 41 students were informed about the benefits of changing answers after careful reconsideration while 38 students did not receive such information. Both groups were instructed to mark all answer changes made during the test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Answer changes were predominantly from wrong to right in full accordance with existing literature resources. It was shown that students who had been informed about the benefits of answer changing when in doubt changed answers significantly more often than students who had not been informed. Though students instructed on the benefits of changing answers scored higher in their exams than those not instructed, the difference in point increase was not significant.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Students should be informed about the benefits of changing initial answers to multiple choice questions once when in reasonable doubt about these answers. Furthermore, reconsidering answers should be encouraged as students will heed the advice and change more answers than students not so instructed.</p

Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions

BACKGROUND: Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT) to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product. CONCLUSIONS: International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while their costs are minimal, dismissal of travel restrictions as an aid in dealing with a global pandemic seems premature

Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

Background:Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.Methods and Findings:Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone.The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%-31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.Conclusions:With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Vehicle emissions and consumer information in car advertisements

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The association between family and community social capital and health risk behaviours in young people: an integrative review

Background: Health risk behaviours known to result in poorer outcomes in adulthood are generally established in late childhood and adolescence. These ‘risky’ behaviours include smoking, alcohol and illicit drug use and sexual risk taking. While the role of social capital in the establishment of health risk behaviours in young people has been explored, to date, no attempt has been made to consolidate the evidence in the form of a review. Thus, this integrative review was undertaken to identify and synthesise research findings on the role and impact of family and community social capital on health risk behaviours in young people and provide a consolidated evidence base to inform multi-sectorial policy and practice.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods: Key electronic databases were searched (i.e. ASSIA, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts) for relevant studies and this was complemented by hand searching. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied and data was extracted from the included studies. Heterogeneity in study design and the outcomes assessed precluded meta-analysis/meta-synthesis; the results are therefore presented in narrative form.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results: Thirty-four papers satisfied the review inclusion criteria; most were cross-sectional surveys. The majority of the studies were conducted in North America (n=25), with three being conducted in the UK. Sample sizes ranged from 61 to 98,340. The synthesised evidence demonstrates that social capital is an important construct for understanding the establishment of health risk behaviours in young people. The different elements of family and community social capital varied in terms of their saliency within each behavioural domain, with positive parent–child relations, parental monitoring, religiosity and school quality being particularly important in reducing risk.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions: This review is the first to systematically synthesise research findings about the association between social capital and health risk behaviours in young people. While providing evidence that may inform the development of interventions framed around social capital, the review also highlights key areas where further research is required to provide a fuller account of the nature and role of social capital in influencing the uptake of health risk behaviours.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

THE HST/ACS COMA CLUSTER SURVEY. VIII. BARRED DISK GALAXIES IN THE CORE OF THE COMA CLUSTER

We use high-resolution (~0. ��1) F814W Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) images from the Hubble Space Telescope ACS Treasury survey of the Coma cluster at z ~ 0.02 to study bars in massive disk galaxies (S0s), as well as low-mass dwarf galaxies in the core of the Coma cluster, the densest environment in the nearby universe. Our study helps to constrain the evolution of bars and disks in dense environments and provides a comparison point for studies in lower density environments and at higher redshifts. Our results are: (1) we characterize the fraction and properties of bars in a sample of 32 bright (MV � -18, M* > 109.5M�) S0 galaxies, which dominate the population of massive disk galaxies in the Coma core. We find that the measurement of a bar fraction among S0 galaxies must be handled with special care due to the difficulty in separating unbarred S0s from ellipticals, and the potential dilution of the bar signature by light from a relatively large, bright bulge. The results depend sensitively on the method used: the bar fraction for bright S0s in the Coma core is 50% ± 11%, 65% ± 11%, and 60% ± 11% based on three methods of bar detection, namely, strict ellipse fit criteria, relaxed ellipse fit criteria, and visual classification. (2)We compare the S0 bar fraction across different environments (the Coma core, A901/902, and Virgo) adopting the critical step of using matched samples and matched methods in order to ensure robust comparisons. We find that the bar fraction among bright S0 galaxies does not show a statistically significant variation (within the error bars of ±11%) across environments which span two orders of magnitude in galaxy number density (n ~ 300–10,000 galaxies Mpc-3) and include rich and poor clusters, such as the core of Coma, the A901/902 cluster, and Virgo. We speculate that the bar fraction among S0s is not significantly enhanced in rich clusters compared to low-density environments for two reasons. First, S0s in rich clusters are less prone to bar instabilities as they are dynamically heated by harassment and are gas poor as a result of ram pressure stripping and accelerated star formation. Second, high-speed encounters in rich clusters may be less effective than slow, strong encounters in inducing bars. (3) We also take advantage of the high resolution of the ACS (~50 pc) to analyze a sample of 333 faint (MV > -18) dwarf galaxies in the Coma core. Using visual inspection of unsharp-masked images, we find only 13 galaxies with bar and/or spiral structure. An additional eight galaxies show evidence for an inclined disk. The paucity of disk structures in Coma dwarfs suggests that either disks are not common in these galaxies or that any disks present are too hot to develop instabilities

Prediction of photoperiodic regulators from quantitative gene circuit models

Photoperiod sensors allow physiological adaptation to the changing seasons. The external coincidence hypothesis postulates that a light-responsive regulator is modulated by a circadian rhythm. Sufficient data are available to test this quantitatively in plants, though not yet in animals. In Arabidopsis, the clock-regulated genes CONSTANS (CO) and FLAVIN, KELCH, F-BOX (FKF1) and their lightsensitive proteins are thought to form an external coincidence sensor. We use 40 timeseries of molecular data to model the integration of light and timing information by CO, its target gene FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT), and the circadian clock. Among other predictions, the models show that FKF1 activates FT. We demonstrate experimentally that this effect is independent of the known activation of CO by FKF1, thus we locate a major, novel controller of photoperiodism. External coincidence is part of a complex photoperiod sensor: modelling makes this complexity explicit and may thus contribute to crop improvement

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease

BACKGROUND: Much research in epidemiology has been focused on evaluating conventional methods of control strategies in the event of an epidemic or pandemic. Travel restrictions are often suggested as an efficient way to reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health, but few papers have studied in depth the effects of travel restrictions. In this study, we investigated what effect different levels of travel restrictions might have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). METHODS: We used a stochastic simulation model incorporating survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over 3 years. We tested scenarios of travel restrictions in which travel over distances >50 km and 20 km would be banned, taking into account different levels of compliance. RESULTS: We found that a ban on journeys >50 km would drastically reduce the speed and geographical spread of outbreaks, even when compliance is < 100%. The result was found to be robust for different rates of intermunicipality transmission intensities. CONCLUSION: This study supports travel restrictions as an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future disease outbreak

Does the Effectiveness of Control Measures Depend on the Influenza Pandemic Profile?

BACKGROUND: Although strategies to contain influenza pandemics are well studied, the characterization and the implications of different geographical and temporal diffusion patterns of the pandemic have been given less attention. METHODOLOGY/MAIN FINDINGS: Using a well-documented metapopulation model incorporating air travel between 52 major world cities, we identified potential influenza pandemic diffusion profiles and examined how the impact of interventions might be affected by this heterogeneity. Clustering methods applied to a set of pandemic simulations, characterized by seven parameters related to the conditions of emergence that were varied following Latin hypercube sampling, were used to identify six pandemic profiles exhibiting different characteristics notably in terms of global burden (from 415 to >160 million of cases) and duration (from 26 to 360 days). A multivariate sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate and proportion of susceptibles have a strong impact on the pandemic diffusion. The correlation between interventions and pandemic outcomes were analyzed for two specific profiles: a fast, massive pandemic and a slow building, long-lasting one. In both cases, the date of introduction for five control measures (masks, isolation, prophylactic or therapeutic use of antivirals, vaccination) correlated strongly with pandemic outcomes. Conversely, the coverage and efficacy of these interventions only moderately correlated with pandemic outcomes in the case of a massive pandemic. Pre-pandemic vaccination influenced pandemic outcomes in both profiles, while travel restriction was the only measure without any measurable effect in either. CONCLUSIONS: our study highlights: (i) the great heterogeneity in possible profiles of a future influenza pandemic; (ii) the value of being well prepared in every country since a pandemic may have heavy consequences wherever and whenever it starts; (iii) the need to quickly implement control measures and even to anticipate pandemic emergence through pre-pandemic vaccination; and (iv) the value of combining all available control measures except perhaps travel restrictions

The HST/ACS Coma Cluster Survey - X. Nuclear star clusters in low-mass early-type galaxies: scaling relations

We present scaling relations between structural properties of nuclear star clusters and their host galaxies for a sample of early-type dwarf galaxies observed as part of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) Coma Cluster Survey. We have analysed the light profiles of 200 early-type dwarf galaxies in the magnitude range 16.0 < mF814W < 22.6 mag, corresponding to -19.0 < MF814W < -12.4 mag. Nuclear star clusters are detected in 80 per cent of the galaxies, thus doubling the sample of HST-observed early-type dwarf galaxies with nuclear star clusters.We confirm that the nuclear star cluster detection fraction decreases strongly towards faint magnitudes. The luminosities of nuclear star clusters do not scale linearly with host galaxy luminosity. A linear fit yields Lnuc ~ L0.57±0.05 gal. The nuclear star cluster–host galaxy luminosity scaling relation for low-mass early-type dwarf galaxies is consistent with formation by globular cluster (GC) accretion. We find that at similar luminosities, galaxies with higher S´ersic indices have slightly more luminous nuclear star clusters. Rounder galaxies have on average more luminous clusters. Some of the nuclear star clusters are resolved, despite the distance of Coma. We argue that the relation between nuclear star cluster mass and size is consistent with both formation by GC accretion and in situ formation. Our data are consistent with GC inspiralling being the dominant mechanism at low masses, although the observed trend with S´ersic index suggests that in situ star formation is an important second-order effect