Network approaches for formalizing conceptual models in ecosystem-based management

Funding Intermodel comparisons were supported through funding from the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program. P.S. McDonald’s involvement was funded in part by a grant from Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington, pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award number NA14OAR4170078. Funding for RPW was supported by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)/Sea Grant Population and Ecosystem Dynamics Graduate Fellowship via federal award NA14OAR4170077. Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge and thank the participants of the NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program conceptual network modelling workshop at Baton Rouge, LA in July 2018. The discussions at this meeting formed some of the basis for the ideas presented in this manuscript. We also thank J. Moss and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on earlier manuscript drafts. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Reference to trade names does not imply endorsement by the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. This is NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Program contribution number 2021_3.Peer reviewedPostprin

Limacina helicina shell dissolution as an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem

Few studies to date have demonstrated widespread biological impacts of ocean acidification (OA) under conditions currently found in the natural environment. From a combined survey of physical and chemical water properties and biological sampling along the Washington–Oregon–California coast in August 2011, we show that large portions of the shelf waters are corrosive to pteropods in the natural environment. We show a strong positive correlation between the proportion of pteropod individuals with severe shell dissolution damage and the percentage of undersaturated water in the top 100 m with respect to aragonite. We found 53% of onshore individuals and 24% of offshore individuals on average to have severe dissolution damage. Relative to pre-industrial CO₂ concentrations, the extent of undersaturated waters in the top 100 m of the water column has increased over sixfold along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). We estimate that the incidence of severe pteropod shell dissolution owing to anthropogenic OA has doubled in near shore habitats since pre-industrial conditions across this region and is on track to triple by 2050. These results demonstrate that habitat suitability for pteropods in the coastal CCE is declining. The observed impacts represent a baseline for future observations towards understanding broader scale OA effects.Keywords: dissolution, pteropods, aragonite undersaturation, habitat reduction, ocean acidificatio

Carbonate chemistry covariation with temperature and oxygen in the Salish Sea and California Current Ecosystems: implications for the design of ocean acidification experiments

A central goal of ocean acidification (OA) research is to understand the ecological consequences that future changes in ocean chemistry will have on marine ecosystems. To address this uncertainty researchers rely heavily on manipulative experiments where biological responses are evaluated across different pCO2 treatments. In coastal systems, however, contemporary carbonate chemistry variability remains only partially characterized and patterns of covariation with other biologically important variables such as temperature and oxygen are rarely evaluated or incorporated into experimental design. Here, we compiled a large carbonate chemistry data set that consists of measurements from multiple moorings and ship-based sampling campaigns from the Salish Sea and larger California Current Ecosystem (CCE). We evaluated patterns of pCO2 variability and highlight important covariation between pCO2, temperature, and oxygen. We subsequently compared environmental pCO2-temperature measurements with conditions maintained in OA experiments that used organisms from the Salish Sea and CCE. By drawing such comparisons, researchers can gain insight into the ecological relevancy of previously published OA experimental designs, but also identify species or life history stages that may already be influenced by contemporary carbonate chemistry conditions. We illustrate the implications that covariation among environmental variables can have for the interpretation of OA experimental results and suggest an approach for developing experimental designs with pCO2 levels that better reflect OA hypotheses while simultaneously recognizing natural covariation with other biologically relevant variables

Interpretation and design of ocean acidification experiments in upwelling systems in the context of carbonate chemistry co-variation with temperature and oxygen

Coastal upwelling regimes are some of the most productive ecosystems in the ocean but are also among the most vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to naturally high background concentrations of CO₂. Yet our ability to predict how these ecosystems will respond to additional CO₂ resulting from anthropogenic emissions is poor. To help address this uncertainty, researchers perform manipulative experiments where biological responses are evaluated across different CO₂ partial pressure (pCO₂) levels. In upwelling systems, however, contemporary carbonate chemistry variability remains only partly characterized and patterns of co-variation with other biologically important variables such as temperature and oxygen are just beginning to be explored in the context of OA experimental design. If co-variation among variables is prevalent, researchers risk performing OA experiments with control conditions that are not experienced by the focal species, potentially diminishing the ecological relevance of the experiment. Here, we synthesized a large carbonate chemistry dataset that consists of carbonate chemistry, temperature, and oxygen measurements from multiple moorings and ship-based sampling campaigns from the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), and includes fjord and tidal estuaries and open coastal waters. We evaluated patterns of pCO₂ variability and highlight important co-variation between pCO₂, temperature, and oxygen. We subsequently compared environmental pCO₂–temperature measurements with conditions maintained in OA experiments that used organisms from the CCE. By drawing such comparisons, researchers can gain insight into the ecological relevance of previously published OA experiments, but also identify species or life history stages that may already be influenced by contemporary carbonate chemistry conditions. We illustrate the implications co-variation among environmental variables can have for the interpretation of OA experimental results and suggest an approach for designing experiments with pCO₂ levels that better reflect OA hypotheses while simultaneously recognizing natural co-variation with other biologically relevant variables.Keywords: hypoxia, multistressor experiment, California Current, pH, climate chang

Workgroup Report: Incorporating In Vitro Alternative Methods for Developmental Neurotoxicity into International Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategies

This is the report of the first workshop on Incorporating In Vitro Alternative Methods for Developmental Neurotoxicity (DNT) Testing into International Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategies, held in Ispra, Italy, on 19–21 April 2005. The workshop was hosted by the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) and jointly organized by ECVAM, the European Chemical Industry Council, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing. The primary aim of the workshop was to identify and catalog potential methods that could be used to assess how data from in vitro alternative methods could help to predict and identify DNT hazards. Working groups focused on two different aspects: a) details on the science available in the field of DNT, including discussions on the models available to capture the critical DNT mechanisms and processes, and b) policy and strategy aspects to assess the integration of alternative methods in a regulatory framework. This report summarizes these discussions and details the recommendations and priorities for future work

A global perspective on the trophic geography of sharks

Sharks are a diverse group of mobile predators that forage across varied spatial scales and have the potential to influence food web dynamics. The ecological consequences of recent declines in shark biomass may extend across broader geographic ranges if shark taxa display common behavioural traits. By tracking the original site of photosynthetic fixation of carbon atoms that were ultimately assimilated into muscle tissues of 5,394 sharks from 114 species, we identify globally consistent biogeographic traits in trophic interactions between sharks found in different habitats. We show that populations of shelf-dwelling sharks derive a substantial proportion of their carbon from regional pelagic sources, but contain individuals that forage within additional isotopically diverse local food webs, such as those supported by terrestrial plant sources, benthic production and macrophytes. In contrast, oceanic sharks seem to use carbon derived from between 30° and 50° of latitude. Global-scale compilations of stable isotope data combined with biogeochemical modelling generate hypotheses regarding animal behaviours that can be tested with other methodological approaches.This research was conducted as part of C.S.B.’s Ph.D dissertation, which was funded by the University of Southampton and NERC (NE/L50161X/1), and through a NERC Grant-in-Kind from the Life Sciences Mass Spectrometry Facility (LSMSF; EK267-03/16). We thank A. Bates, D. Sims, F. Neat, R. McGill and J. Newton for their analytical contributions and comments on the manuscripts.Peer reviewe

Biomarker candidates of neurodegeneration in Parkinson’s disease for the evaluation of disease-modifying therapeutics

Reliable biomarkers that can be used for early diagnosis and tracking disease progression are the cornerstone of the development of disease-modifying treatments for Parkinson’s disease (PD). The German Society of Experimental and Clinical Neurotherapeutics (GESENT) has convened a Working Group to review the current status of proposed biomarkers of neurodegeneration according to the following criteria and to develop a consensus statement on biomarker candidates for evaluation of disease-modifying therapeutics in PD. The criteria proposed are that the biomarker should be linked to fundamental features of PD neuropathology and mechanisms underlying neurodegeneration in PD, should be correlated to disease progression assessed by clinical rating scales, should monitor the actual disease status, should be pre-clinically validated, and confirmed by at least two independent studies conducted by qualified investigators with the results published in peer-reviewed journals. To date, available data have not yet revealed one reliable biomarker to detect early neurodegeneration in PD and to detect and monitor effects of drug candidates on the disease process, but some promising biomarker candidates, such as antibodies against neuromelanin, pathological forms of α-synuclein, DJ-1, and patterns of gene expression, metabolomic and protein profiling exist. Almost all of the biomarker candidates were not investigated in relation to effects of treatment, validated in experimental models of PD and confirmed in independent studies

HalesBurkeCEOASLimacinaHelicinaShell_FigureS1.pdf

Few studies to date have demonstrated widespread biological impacts of ocean acidification (OA) under conditions currently found in the natural environment. From a combined survey of physical and chemical water properties and biological sampling along the Washington–Oregon–California coast in August 2011, we show that large portions of the shelf waters are corrosive to pteropods in the natural environment. We show a strong positive correlation between the proportion of pteropod individuals with severe shell dissolution damage and the percentage of undersaturated water in the top 100 m with respect to aragonite. We found 53% of onshore individuals and 24% of offshore individuals on average to have severe dissolution damage. Relative to pre-industrial CO₂ concentrations, the extent of undersaturated waters in the top 100 m of the water column has increased over sixfold along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). We estimate that the incidence of severe pteropod shell dissolution owing to anthropogenic OA has doubled in near shore habitats since pre-industrial conditions across this region and is on track to triple by 2050. These results demonstrate that habitat suitability for pteropods in the coastal CCE is declining. The observed impacts represent a baseline for future observations towards understanding broader scale OA effects.Keywords: aragonite undersaturation, pteropods, habitat reduction, ocean acidification, dissolutio

Using Conceptual Models and Qualitative Network Models to Advance Integrative Assessments of Marine Ecosystems

<p>The complexity of ecosystem-based management (EBM) of natural resources has given rise to research frameworks such as integrated ecosystem assessments (IEA) that pull together large amounts of diverse information from physical, ecological, and social domains. Conceptual models are valuable tools for assimilating and simplifying this information to convey our understanding of ecosystem structure and functioning. Qualitative network models (QNMs) may allow us to conduct dynamic simulations of conceptual models to explore natural–social relationships, compare management strategies, and identify tradeoffs. We used previously developed QNM methods to perform simulations based on conceptual models of the California Current ecosystem's pelagic communities and related human activities and values. Assumptions about community structure and trophic interactions influenced the outcomes of the QNMs. In simulations where we applied unfavorable environmental conditions for production of salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus</i> spp.), intensive management actions only modestly mitigated declines experienced by salmon, but strongly constrained human activities. Moreover, the management actions had little effect on a human wellbeing attribute, sense of place. Sense of place was most strongly affected by a relatively small subset of all possible pair-wise interactions, although the relative influence of individual pair-wise interactions on sense of place grew more uniform as management actions were added, making it more difficult to trace effective management actions via specific mechanistic pathways. Future work will explore the importance of changing conceptual models and QNMs to represent management questions at finer spatial and temporal scales, and also examine finer representation of key ecological and social components.</p