Estimating the Burden of Malaria: The Need for Improved Surveillance

Ivo Mueller, Laurence Slutsker, and Marcel Tanner highlight the importance of using complementary methods to estimate the burden of malaria and call for a renewed focus on efficient malaria surveillance

Worldwide Incidence of Malaria in 2009: Estimates, Time Trends, and a Critique of Methods

Richard Cibulskis and colleagues present estimates of the worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009, together with a critique of different estimation methods, including those based on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and those based on routine case reports compiled by health ministries

Health Centre Surveys as a Potential Tool for Monitoring Malaria Epidemiology by Area and over Time

BACKGROUND: Presently, many malaria control programmes use health facility data to evaluate the impact of their interventions. Facility-based malaria data, although useful, have problems with completeness, validity and representativeness and reliance on routinely collected health facility data might undermine demonstration of the magnitude of the impact of the recent scaleups of malaria interventions. To determine whether carefully conducted health centre surveys can be reliable means of monitoring area specific malaria epidemiology, we have compared malaria specific indices obtained from surveys in health centres with indices obtained from cross-sectional surveys conducted in their catchment communities. METHODS: A series of age stratified, seasonal, cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the peak malaria transmission season in 2008 and during the following dry season in 2009 in six ecologically diverse areas in The Gambia. Participants were patients who attended the health centres plus a representative sample from the catchment villages of these health facilities. Parasitaemia, anaemia, attributable proportion of fever and anti-MSP1-(19) antibody seroprevalence were compared in the health facility attendees and community participants. RESULTS: A total of 16,230 subjects completed the study; approximately half participated in the health centre surveys and half in the wet season surveys. Data from both the health centre and community surveys showed that malaria endemicity in The Gambia is now low, heterogeneous and seasonal. In the wet season, parasitaemia, seroprevalence and fever prevalence were higher in subjects seen in the health centres than in the community surveys. Age patterns of parasitaemia, attributable proportions of fever and seroprevalence rates were similar in subjects who participated in the community and health centre surveys. CONCLUSION: Health centre surveys have potential as a surveillance tool for evaluating area specific malaria control activities and for monitoring changes in local malaria epidemiology over time

Improved Malaria Case Management through the Implementation of a Health Facility-Based Sentinel Site Surveillance System in Uganda

Heath facility-based sentinel site surveillance has been proposed as a means of monitoring trends in malaria morbidity but may also provide an opportunity to improve malaria case management. Here we described the impact of a sentinel site malaria surveillance system on promoting laboratory testing and rational antimalarial drug use.Sentinel site malaria surveillance was established at six health facilities in Uganda between September 2006 and January 2007. Data were collected from all patients presenting to the outpatient departments including demographics, laboratory results, diagnoses, and treatments prescribed. Between the start of surveillance and March 2010, a total 424,701 patients were seen of which 229,375 (54%) were suspected of having malaria. Comparing the first three months with the last three months of surveillance, the proportion of patients with suspected malaria who underwent diagnostic testing increased from 39% to 97% (p<0.001). The proportion of patients with an appropriate decision to prescribe antimalarial therapy (positive test result prescribed, negative test result not prescribed) increased from 64% to 95% (p<0.001). The proportion of patients appropriately prescribed antimalarial therapy who were prescribed the recommended first-line regimen artemether-lumefantrine increased from 48% to 69% (p<0.001).The establishment of a sentinel site malaria surveillance system in Uganda achieved almost universal utilization of diagnostic testing in patients with suspected malaria and appropriate decisions to prescribed antimalarial based on test results. Less success was achieved in promoting prescribing practice for the recommended first-line therapy. This system could provide a model for improving malaria case management in other health facilities in Africa

Reduced paediatric hospitalizations for malaria and febrile illness patterns following implementation of community-based malaria control programme in rural Rwanda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria control is currently receiving significant international commitment. As part of this commitment, Rwanda has undertaken a two-pronged approach to combating malaria via mass distribution of long-lasting insecticidal-treated nets and distribution of antimalarial medications by community health workers. This study attempted to measure the impact of these interventions on paediatric hospitalizations for malaria and on laboratory markers of disease severity.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective analysis of hospital records pre- and post-community-based malaria control interventions at a district hospital in rural Rwanda was performed. The interventions took place in August 2006 in the region served by the hospital and consisted of mass insecticide treated net distribution and community health workers antimalarial medication disbursement. The study periods consisted of the December–February high transmission seasons pre- and post-rollout. The record review examined a total of 551 paediatric admissions to identify 1) laboratory-confirmed malaria, defined by thick smear examination, 2) suspected malaria, defined as fever and symptoms consistent with malaria in the absence of an alternate cause, and 3) all-cause admissions. To define the impact of the intervention on clinical markers of malaria disease, trends in admission peripheral parasitaemia and haemoglobin were analyzed. To define accuracy of clinical diagnoses, trends in proportions of malaria admissions which were microscopy-confirmed before and after the intervention were examined. Finally, to assess overall management of febrile illnesses antibiotic use was described.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 551 total admissions, 268 (48.6%) and 437 (79.3%) were attributable to laboratory-confirmed and suspected malaria, respectively. The absolute number of admissions due to suspected malaria was smaller during the post-intervention period (N = 150) relative to the pre-intervention period (N = 287), in spite of an increase in the absolute number of hospitalizations due to other causes during the post-intervention period. The percentage of suspected malaria admissions that were laboratory-confirmed was greater during the pre-intervention period (80.4%) relative to the post-intervention period (48.1%, prevalence ratio [PR]: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.39 – 2.02; chi-squared p-value < 0.0001). Among children admitted with laboratory-confirmed malaria, the risk of high parasitaemia was higher during the pre-intervention period relative to the post-intervention period (age-adjusted PR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.11 – 2.38; chi-squared p-value = 0.004), and the risk of severe anaemia was more than twofold greater during the pre-intervention period (age-adjusted PR: 2.47; 95% CI: 0.84 – 7.24; chi-squared p-value = 0.08). Antibiotic use was common, with 70.7% of all children with clinical malaria and 86.4% of children with slide-negative malaria receiving antibacterial therapy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that both admissions for malaria and laboratory markers of clinical disease among children may be rapidly reduced following community-based malaria control efforts. Additionally, this study highlights the problem of over-diagnosis and over-treatment of malaria in malaria-endemic regions, especially as malaria prevalence falls. More accurate diagnosis and management of febrile illnesses is critically needed both now and as fever aetiologies change with further reductions in malaria.</p

Shady business: understanding the spatial ecology of exophilic Anopheles mosquitoes

Background: Understanding the ecology of exophilic anophelines is a key step toward developing outdoor control strategies to complement existing indoor control tools against malaria vectors. This study was conducted to assess the movement pattern of exophilic Anopheles mosquitoes between blood meal sources and resting habitats, and the landscape factors dictating their resting habitat choice. Results: Resting clay pots were placed at 5 m, 25 m, 50 m, 75 m and 100 m away from isolated focal houses, radiating from them in four directions. The locations of the clay pots represent heterogeneous land cover types at a relatively fine spatial scale in the landscape. The effect of the landscape characters on the number of both female and male anophelines caught was modelled using zero-inflated negative binomial regression with a log link function. A total of 420 Anopheles mosquitoes (353 females and 67 males) belonging to three species; Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles pharoensis, and Anopheles tenebrosus were caught in the resting clay pots, with An. arabiensis being the dominant species. Canopy cover, distance from the house, and land cover type were the significant landscape characters influencing the aggregation of resting mosquitoes. Both the count and binary models showed that canopy cover was the strongest predictor variable on the counts and the presence of Anopheles mosquitoes in the clay pots. Female Anopheles were most frequently found resting in the pots placed in banana plantations, and at sampling points that were at the greater distances (75 m and 100 m) from the focal house. Conclusions: This study showed that exophilic Anopheles mosquitoes tend to rest in shaded areas some distance away from human habitation. These findings are important when targeting mosquitoes outdoors, complementing the existing effort being made to control malaria vectors indoors

Predictive Value of Fever and Palmar Pallor for P. falciparum Parasitaemia in Children from an Endemic Area

INTRODUCTION: Although the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa is reported to decline and other conditions, causing similar symptoms as clinical malaria are gaining in relevance, presumptive anti-malarial treatment is still common. This study traced for age-dependent signs and symptoms predictive for P. falciparum parasitaemia. METHODS: In total, 5447 visits of 3641 patients between 2-60 months of age who attended an outpatient department (OPD) of a rural hospital in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, were analysed. All Children were examined by a paediatrician and a full blood count and thick smear were done. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to generate a clinical decision tree to predict malarial parasitaemia a7nd predictive values of all symptoms were calculated. RESULTS: Malarial parasitaemia was detected in children between 2-12 months and between 12-60 months of age with a prevalence of 13.8% and 30.6%, respectively. The CART-model revealed age-dependent differences in the ability of the variables to predict parasitaemia. While palmar pallor was the most important symptom in children between 2-12 months, a report of fever and an elevated body temperature of ≥37.5°C gained in relevance in children between 12-60 months. The variable palmar pallor was significantly (p<0.001) associated with lower haemoglobin levels in children of all ages. Compared to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm the CART-model had much lower sensitivities, but higher specificities and positive predictive values for a malarial parasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Use of age-derived algorithms increases the specificity of the prediction for P. falciparum parasitaemia. The predictive value of palmar pallor should be underlined in health worker training. Due to a lack of sensitivity neither the best algorithm nor palmar pallor as a single sign are eligible for decision-making and cannot replace presumptive treatment or laboratory diagnosis

Atypical ductal hyperplasia is a multipotent precursor of breast carcinoma

The current model for breast cancer progression proposes independent “low‐grade (LG) like” and “high‐grade (HG) like” pathways but lacks a known precursor to HG cancer. We applied low coverage whole genome sequencing to atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) with and without carcinoma to shed light on breast cancer progression. 14/20 isolated ADH cases harboured at least one copy number alteration (CNA), but had fewer aberrations than LG or HG ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). ADH carried more HG‐like CNA than LG DCIS (eg. 8q gain). Correspondingly, 64% (7/11) of ADH cases with synchronous HG carcinoma were clonally related, similar to LG carcinoma (67%, 6/9). This study represents a significant shift in our understanding of breast cancer progression, with ADH as a common precursor lesion to the independent “low‐grade like” and “high‐grade like” pathways. These data suggest that ADH can be a precursor of HG breast cancer and that LG and HG carcinomas can evolve from a similar ancestor lesion. We propose that although LG DCIS may be committed to a LG molecular pathway, ADH may remain multipotent, progressing to either LG or HG carcinoma. This multipotent nature suggests that some ADH could be more clinically significant than LG DCIS, requiring biomarkers for personalising management