Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

The CIPRUS study, a nurse-led psychological treatment for patients with undifferentiated somatoform disorder in primary care: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Up to a third of patients presenting medically unexplained physical symptoms in primary care may have a somatoform disorder, of which undifferentiated somatoform disorder (USD) is the most common type. Psychological interventions can reduce symptoms associated with USD and improve functioning. Previous research has either been conducted in secondary care or interventions have been provided by general practitioners (GPs) or psychologists in primary care. As efficiency and cost-effectiveness are imperative in primary care, it is important to investigate whether nurse-led interventions are effective as well. The aim of this study is to examine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a short cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT)-based treatment for patients with USD provided by mental health nurse practitioners (MHNPs), compared to usual care. Methods: In a cluster randomised controlled trial, 212 adult patients with USD will be assigned to the intervention or care as usual. The intervention group will be offered a short, individual CBT-based treatment by the MHNP in addition to usual GP care. The main goal of the intervention is that patients become less impaired by their physical symptoms and cope with symptoms in a more effective way. In six sessions patients will receive problem-solving treatment. The primary outcome is improvement in physical functioning, measured by the physical component summary score of the RAND-36. Secondary outcomes include health-related quality of life measured by the separate subscales of the RAND-36, somatization (PHQ-15) and symptoms of depression and anxiety (HADS). Problem-solving skills, health anxiety, illness perceptions, coping, mastery and working alliance will be assessed as potential mediators. Assessments will be done at 0, 2, 4, 8 and 12 months. An economic evaluation will be conducted from a societal perspective with quality of life as the primary outcome measure assessed by the EQ-5D-5L. Health care, patient and lost productivity costs will be assessed with the Tic-P. Discussion: We expect that the intervention will improve physical functioning and is cost-effective compared to usual care. If so, more patients might successfully be treated in general practice, decreasing the number of referrals to specialist care. Trial registration: Dutch Trial Registry, identifier: NTR4686, Registered on 14 July 2014. © 2017 The Author(s)

Lichen response to ammonia deposition defines the footprint of a penguin rookery

Ammonia volatilized from penguin rookeries is a major nitrogen source in Antarctic coastal terrestrial ecosystems. However, the spatial extent of ammonia dispersion from rookeries and its impacts have not been quantified previously. We measured ammonia concentration in air and lichen ecophysiological response variables proximate to an Adèlie penguin rookery at Cape Hallett, northern Victoria Land. Ammonia emitted from the rookery was 15N-enriched (δ15N value +6.9) and concentrations in air ranged from 36–75 µg m−3 at the rookery centre to 0.05 µg m−3 at a distance of 15.3 km. δ15N values and rates of phosphomonoesterase (PME) activity in the lichens Usnea sphacelata and Umbilicaria decussata were strongly negatively related to distance from the rookery and PME activity was positively related to thallus N:P mass ratio. In contrast, the lichen Xanthomendoza borealis, which is largely restricted to within an area 0.5 km from the rookery perimeter, had high N, P and 15N concentrations but low PME activity suggesting that nutrient scavenging capacity is suppressed in highly eutrophicated sites. An ammonia dispersion model indicates that ammonia concentrations sufficient to significantly elevate PME activity and δ15N values (≥0.1 µg NH3 m−3) occurred over c. 40–300 km2 surrounding the rookery suggesting that penguin rookeries potentially can generate large spatial impact zones. In a general linear model NH3 concentration and lichen species identity were found to account for 72 % of variation in the putative proportion of lichen thallus N originating from penguin derived NH3. The results provide evidence of large scale impact of N transfer from a marine to an N-limited terrestrial ecosystem

Policies and clinical practices relating to the management of gestational diabetes mellitus in the public health sector, South Africa – a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Women with a prior gestational diabetes have an increased lifetime risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Although post-partum follow-up for GDM women is essential to prevent progression to type 2 diabetes, it is poorly attended. The need for health systems interventions to support postpartum follow-up for GDM women is evident, but there is little knowledge of actual current practice. The aim of this study was to explore current policies and clinical practices relating to antenatal and post-natal care for women with GDM in South Africa, as well as health sector stakeholders’ perspectives on the barriers to – and opportunities for – delivering an integrated mother - baby health service that extends beyond the first week post-partum, to the infant’s first year of life. METHODS: Following a document review of policy and clinical practice guidelines, in-depth interviews were conducted with 11 key informants who were key policy makers, health service managers and clinicians working in the public health services in South Africa’s two major cities (Johannesburg and Cape Town). Data were analysed using qualitative content analysis procedures. RESULTS: The document review and interviews established that it is policy that health services adhere to international guidelines for GDM diagnosis and management, in addition to locally developed guidelines and protocols for clinical practice. All key informants confirmed that lack of postpartum follow-up for GDM women is a significant problem. Health systems barriers include fragmentation of care and the absence of standardised postnatal care for post-GDM women. Key informants also raised patient - related challenges including lack of perceived future risk of developing type 2 diabetes and non-attendance for postpartum follow up, as barriers to postnatal care for GDM women. All participants supported integrated primary health services but cautioned against overloading health workers. CONCLUSION: Although there is alignment between international guidelines, local policy and reported clinical practice in the management of GDM, there is a gap in continuation of care in the postpartum period. Health systems interventions that support and facilitate active follow-up for women with prior GDM are needed if high rates of progression to type 2 diabetes are to be avoided