Phylogenetic Codivergence Supports Coevolution of Mimetic Heliconius Butterflies

The unpalatable and warning-patterned butterflies _Heliconius erato_ and _Heliconius melpomene_ provide the best studied example of mutualistic Müllerian mimicry, thought – but rarely demonstrated – to promote coevolution. Some of the strongest available evidence for coevolution comes from phylogenetic codivergence, the parallel divergence of ecologically associated lineages. Early evolutionary reconstructions suggested codivergence between mimetic populations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, and this was initially hailed as the most striking known case of coevolution. However, subsequent molecular phylogenetic analyses found discrepancies in phylogenetic branching patterns and timing (topological and temporal incongruence) that argued against codivergence. We present the first explicit cophylogenetic test of codivergence between mimetic populations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, and re-examine the timing of these radiations. We find statistically significant topological congruence between multilocus coalescent population phylogenies of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_, supporting repeated codivergence of mimetic populations. Divergence time estimates, based on a Bayesian coalescent model, suggest that the evolutionary radiations of _H. erato_ and _H. melpomene_ occurred over the same time period, and are compatible with a series of temporally congruent codivergence events. This evidence supports a history of reciprocal coevolution between Müllerian co-mimics characterised by phylogenetic codivergence and parallel phenotypic change

A systematic analysis of host factors reveals a Med23-interferon-λ regulatory axis against herpes simplex virus type 1 replication

Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) is a neurotropic virus causing vesicular oral or genital skin lesions, meningitis and other diseases particularly harmful in immunocompromised individuals. To comprehensively investigate the complex interaction between HSV-1 and its host we combined two genome-scale screens for host factors (HFs) involved in virus replication. A yeast two-hybrid screen for protein interactions and a RNA interference (RNAi) screen with a druggable genome small interfering RNA (siRNA) library confirmed existing and identified novel HFs which functionally influence HSV-1 infection. Bioinformatic analyses found the 358 HFs were enriched for several pathways and multi-protein complexes. Of particular interest was the identification of Med23 as a strongly anti-viral component of the largely pro-viral Mediator complex, which links specific transcription factors to RNA polymerase II. The anti-viral effect of Med23 on HSV-1 replication was confirmed in gain-of-function gene overexpression experiments, and this inhibitory effect was specific to HSV-1, as a range of other viruses including Vaccinia virus and Semliki Forest virus were unaffected by Med23 depletion. We found Med23 significantly upregulated expression of the type III interferon family (IFN-λ) at the mRNA and protein level by directly interacting with the transcription factor IRF7. The synergistic effect of Med23 and IRF7 on IFN-λ induction suggests this is the major transcription factor for IFN-λ expression. Genotypic analysis of patients suffering recurrent orofacial HSV-1 outbreaks, previously shown to be deficient in IFN-λ secretion, found a significant correlation with a single nucleotide polymorphism in the IFN-λ3 (IL28b) promoter strongly linked to Hepatitis C disease and treatment outcome. This paper describes a link between Med23 and IFN-λ, provides evidence for the crucial role of IFN-λ in HSV-1 immune control, and highlights the power of integrative genome-scale approaches to identify HFs critical for disease progression and outcome

Predicting the risk of acute kidney injury in primary care: derivation and validation of STRATIFY-AKI

Background: Antihypertensives reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease but are also associated with harms including acute kidney injury (AKI). Few data exist to guide clinical decision making regarding these risks. Aim: To develop a prediction model estimating the risk of AKI in people potentially indicated for antihypertensive treatment. Design and setting: Observational cohort study using routine primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in England. Method: People aged ≥40 years, with at least one blood pressure measurement between 130 mmHg and 179 mmHg were included. Outcomes were admission to hospital or death with AKI within 1, 5, and 10 years. The model was derived with data from CPRD GOLD (n = 1 772 618), using a Fine–Gray competing risks approach, with subsequent recalibration using pseudo-values. External validation used data from CPRD Aurum (n = 3 805 322). Results: The mean age of participants was 59.4 years and 52% were female. The final model consisted of 27 predictors and showed good discrimination at 1, 5, and 10 years (C-statistic for 10-year risk 0.821, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.818 to 0.823). There was some overprediction at the highest predicted probabilities (ratio of observed to expected event probability for 10-year risk 0.633, 95% CI = 0.621 to 0.645), affecting patients with the highest risk. Most patients (>95%) had a low 1- to 5-year risk of AKI, and at 10 years only 0.1% of the population had a high AKI and low CVD risk. Conclusion: This clinical prediction model enables GPs to accurately identify patients at high risk of AKI, which will aid treatment decisions. As the vast majority of patients were at low risk, such a model may provide useful reassurance that most antihypertensive treatment is safe and appropriate while flagging the few for whom this is not the case

Confounding and exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology

Studies in air pollution epidemiology may suffer from some specific forms of confounding and exposure measurement error. This contribution discusses these, mostly in the framework of cohort studies. Evaluation of potential confounding is critical in studies of the health effects of air pollution. The association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality has been investigated using cohort studies in which subjects are followed over time with respect to their vital status. In such studies, control for individual-level confounders such as smoking is important, as is control for area-level confounders such as neighborhood socio-economic status. In addition, there may be spatial dependencies in the survival data that need to be addressed. These issues are illustrated using the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention II cohort. Exposure measurement error is a challenge in epidemiology because inference about health effects can be incorrect when the measured or predicted exposure used in the analysis is different from the underlying true exposure. Air pollution epidemiology rarely if ever uses personal measurements of exposure for reasons of cost and feasibility. Exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology comes in various dominant forms, which are different for time-series and cohort studies. The challenges are reviewed and a number of suggested solutions are discussed for both study domains

Natural enemies from South Africa for biological control of Lagarosiphon major (Ridl.) Moss ex Wager (Hydrocharitaceae) in Europe

The non-native invasive plant, Lagarosiphon major (Hydrocharitaceae) is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that poses a significant threat to water bodies in Europe. Dense infestations prove difficult to manage using traditional methods. In order to initiate a biocontrol programme, a survey for natural enemies of Lagarosiphon was conducted in South Africa. Several phytophagous species were recorded for the first time, with at least three showing notable promise as candidate agents. Amongst these, a leaf-mining fly, Hydrellia sp. (Ephydridae) that occurred over a wide distribution causes significant leaf damage despite high levels of parasitism by braconid wasps. Another yet unidentified fly was recorded mining the stem of L. major. Two leaf-feeding and shoot boring weevils, cf. Bagous sp. (Curculionidae) were recorded damaging the shoot tips and stunting the growth of the stem. Several leaf-feeding lepidopteran species (Nymphulinae) were frequently recorded, but are expected to feed on a wide range of plant species and are not considered for importation before other candidates are assessed. The discovery of several natural enemies in the country of origin improves the biological control prospects of L. major in Europe

Marked alveolar apoptosis/proliferation imbalance in end-stage emphysema

BACKGROUND: Apoptosis has recently been proposed to contribute to the pathogenesis of emphysema. METHODS: In order to establish if cell fate plays a role even in end-stage disease we studied 16 lungs (9 smoking-associated and 7 α1antitrypsin (AAT)-deficiency emphysema) from patients who had undergone lung transplantations. Six unused donor lungs served as controls. Apoptosis was evaluated by TUNEL analysis, single-stranded DNA laddering, electron microscopy and cell proliferation by an immunohistochemical method (MIB1). The role of the transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 pathway was also investigated and correlated with epithelial cell turnover and with the severity of inflammatory cell infiltrate. RESULTS: The apoptotic index (AI) was significantly higher in emphysematous lungs compared to the control group (p ≤ 0.01), particularly if only lungs with AAT-deficiency emphysema were considered (p ≤ 0.01 vs p = 0.09). The proliferation index was similar in patients and controls (1.9 ± 2.2 vs 1.7 ± 1.1). An increased number of T lymphocytes was observed in AAT-deficiency lungs than smoking-related cases (p ≤ 0.05). TGF-β1 expression in the alveolar wall was higher in patients with smoking-associated emphysema than in cases with AAT-deficiency emphysema (p ≤ 0.05). A positive correlation between TGF-βRII and AI was observed only in the control group (p ≤ 0.005, r(2 )= 0.8). A negative correlation was found between the TGF-β pathway (particularly TGF-βRII) and T lymphocytes infiltrate in smoking-related cases (p ≤ 0.05, r(2 )= 0.99) CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that apoptosis of alveolar epithelial cells plays an important role even in end-stage emphysema particularly in AAT-deficiency disease. The TGFβ-1 pathway does not seem to directly influence epithelial turnover in end-stage disease. Inflammatory cytokine different from TGF-β1 may differently orchestrate cell fate in AAT and smoking-related emphysema types

Th1-Th17 Cells Mediate Protective Adaptive Immunity against Staphylococcus aureus and Candida albicans Infection in Mice

We sought to define protective mechanisms of immunity to Staphylococcus aureus and Candida albicans bloodstream infections in mice immunized with the recombinant N-terminus of Als3p (rAls3p-N) vaccine plus aluminum hydroxide (Al(OH3) adjuvant, or adjuvant controls. Deficiency of IFN-γ but not IL-17A enhanced susceptibility of control mice to both infections. However, vaccine-induced protective immunity against both infections required CD4+ T-cell-derived IFN-γ and IL-17A, and functional phagocytic effectors. Vaccination primed Th1, Th17, and Th1/17 lymphocytes, which produced pro-inflammatory cytokines that enhanced phagocytic killing of both organisms. Vaccinated, infected mice had increased IFN-γ, IL-17, and KC, increased neutrophil influx, and decreased organism burden in tissues. In summary, rAls3p-N vaccination induced a Th1/Th17 response, resulting in recruitment and activation of phagocytes at sites of infection, and more effective clearance of S. aureus and C. albicans from tissues. Thus, vaccine-mediated adaptive immunity can protect against both infections by targeting microbes for destruction by innate effectors

Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study

Objective To develop and externally validate the STRAtifying Treatments In the multi-morbid Frail elderlY (STRATIFY)-Falls clinical prediction model to identify the risk of hospital admission or death from a fall in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Primary care data from electronic health records contained within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Participants Patients aged 40 years or older with at least one blood pressure measurement between 130 mm Hg and 179 mm Hg. Main outcome measure First serious fall, defined as hospital admission or death with a primary diagnosis of a fall within 10 years of the index date (12 months after cohort entry). Model development was conducted using a Fine-Gray approach in data from CPRD GOLD, accounting for the competing risk of death from other causes, with subsequent recalibration at one, five, and 10 years using pseudo values. External validation was conducted using data from CPRD Aurum, with performance assessed through calibration curves and the observed to expected ratio, C statistic, and D statistic, pooled across general practices, and clinical utility using decision curve analysis at thresholds around 10%. Results Analysis included 1 772 600 patients (experiencing 62 691 serious falls) from CPRD GOLD used in model development, and 3 805 366 (experiencing 206 956 serious falls) from CPRD Aurum in the external validation. The final model consisted of 24 predictors, including age, sex, ethnicity, alcohol consumption, living in an area of high social deprivation, a history of falls, multiple sclerosis, and prescriptions of antihypertensives, antidepressants, hypnotics, and anxiolytics. Upon external validation, the recalibrated model showed good discrimination, with pooled C statistics of 0.833 (95% confidence interval 0.831 to 0.835) and 0.843 (0.841 to 0.844) at five and 10 years, respectively. Original model calibration was poor on visual inspection and although this was improved with recalibration, under-prediction of risk remained (observed to expected ratio at 10 years 1.839, 95% confidence interval 1.811 to 1.865). Nevertheless, decision curve analysis suggests potential clinical utility, with net benefit larger than other strategies. Conclusions This prediction model uses commonly recorded clinical characteristics and distinguishes well between patients at high and low risk of falls in the next 1-10 years. Although miscalibration was evident on external validation, the model still had potential clinical utility around risk thresholds of 10% and so could be useful in routine clinical practice to help identify those at high risk of falls who might benefit from closer monitoring or early intervention to prevent future falls. Further studies are needed to explore the appropriate thresholds that maximise the model’s clinical utility and cost effectiveness