Individual participant data validation of the PICNICC prediction model for febrile neutropenia

BACKGROUND: Risk-stratified approaches to managing cancer therapies and their consequent complications rely on accurate predictions to work effectively. The risk-stratified management of fever with neutropenia is one such very common area of management in paediatric practice. Such rules are frequently produced and promoted without adequate confirmation of their accuracy. METHODS: An individual participant data meta-analytic validation of the 'Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs In Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) prediction model for microbiologically documented infection in paediatric fever with neutropenia was undertaken. Pooled estimates were produced using random-effects meta-analysis of the area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration slope and ratios of expected versus observed cases (E/O). RESULTS: The PICNICC model was poorly predictive of microbiologically documented infection (MDI) in these validation cohorts. The pooled AUC-ROC was 0.59, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.78, tau2=0, compared with derivation value of 0.72, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76. There was poor discrimination (pooled slope estimate 0.03, 95% CI -0.19 to 0.26) and calibration in the large (pooled E/O ratio 1.48, 95% CI 0.87 to 2.1). Three different simple recalibration approaches failed to improve performance meaningfully. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis shows the PICNICC model should not be used at admission to predict MDI. Further work should focus on validating alternative prediction models. Validation across multiple cohorts from diverse locations is essential before widespread clinical adoption of such rules to avoid overtreating or undertreating children with fever with neutropenia

Unexplained chronic liver disease in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is assumed to be the major cause of chronic liver disease (CLD) in sub-Saharan Africa. The contribution of other aetiological causes of CLD is less well documented and hence opportunities to modulate other potential risk factors are being lost. The aims of this study were to explore the aetiological spectrum of CLD in eastern Ethiopia and to identify plausible underlying risk factors for its development. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was undertaken between April 2015 and April 2016 in two public hospitals in Harar, eastern Ethiopia. The study population comprised of consenting adults with clinical and radiological evidence of chronic liver disease. The baseline evaluation included: (i) a semi-structured interview designed to obtain information about the ingestion of alcohol, herbal medicines and local recreational drugs such as khat (Catha edulis); (ii) clinical examination; (iii) extensive laboratory testing; and, (iv) abdominal ultrasonography. RESULTS: One-hundred-and-fifty patients with CLD (men 72.0%; median age 30 [interquartile range 25-40] years) were included. CLD was attributed to chronic HBV infection in 55 (36.7%) individuals; other aetiological agents were identified in a further 12 (8.0%). No aetiological factors were identified in the remaining 83 (55.3%) patients. The overall prevalence of daily khat use was 78.0%, while alcohol abuse, defined as > 20 g/day in women and > 30 g/day in men, was rare (2.0%). Histological features of toxic liver injury were observed in a subset of patients with unexplained liver injury who underwent liver biopsy. CONCLUSION: The aetiology of CLD in eastern Ethiopia is largely unexplained. The widespread use of khat in the region, together with histopathological findings indicating toxic liver injury, suggests an association which warrants further investigation

The association between family and community social capital and health risk behaviours in young people: an integrative review

Background: Health risk behaviours known to result in poorer outcomes in adulthood are generally established in late childhood and adolescence. These ‘risky’ behaviours include smoking, alcohol and illicit drug use and sexual risk taking. While the role of social capital in the establishment of health risk behaviours in young people has been explored, to date, no attempt has been made to consolidate the evidence in the form of a review. Thus, this integrative review was undertaken to identify and synthesise research findings on the role and impact of family and community social capital on health risk behaviours in young people and provide a consolidated evidence base to inform multi-sectorial policy and practice.<p></p> Methods: Key electronic databases were searched (i.e. ASSIA, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts) for relevant studies and this was complemented by hand searching. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied and data was extracted from the included studies. Heterogeneity in study design and the outcomes assessed precluded meta-analysis/meta-synthesis; the results are therefore presented in narrative form.<p></p> Results: Thirty-four papers satisfied the review inclusion criteria; most were cross-sectional surveys. The majority of the studies were conducted in North America (n=25), with three being conducted in the UK. Sample sizes ranged from 61 to 98,340. The synthesised evidence demonstrates that social capital is an important construct for understanding the establishment of health risk behaviours in young people. The different elements of family and community social capital varied in terms of their saliency within each behavioural domain, with positive parent–child relations, parental monitoring, religiosity and school quality being particularly important in reducing risk.<p></p> Conclusions: This review is the first to systematically synthesise research findings about the association between social capital and health risk behaviours in young people. While providing evidence that may inform the development of interventions framed around social capital, the review also highlights key areas where further research is required to provide a fuller account of the nature and role of social capital in influencing the uptake of health risk behaviours.<p></p&gt

Impaired Competence for Pretense in Children with Autism: Exploring Potential Cognitive Predictors.

Lack of pretense in children with autism has been explained by a number of theoretical explanations, including impaired mentalising, impaired response inhibition, and weak central coherence. This study aimed to empirically test each of these theories. Children with autism (n=60) were significantly impaired relative to controls (n=65) when interpreting pretense, thereby supporting a competence deficit hypothesis. They also showed impaired mentalising and response inhibition, but superior local processing indicating weak central coherence. Regression analyses revealed that mentalising significantly and independently predicted pretense. The results are interpreted as supporting the impaired mentalising theory and evidence against competing theories invoking impaired response inhibition or a local processing bias. The results of this study have important implications for treatment and intervention

Health care help seeking behaviour among prisoners in Norway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prisoners are associated with high health care needs compared with the general population. This study aims to investigate prisoners' use of health service.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study of 29 prisons in central and southern parts of Norway. A questionnaire was distributed to 1, 454 prisoners (90% response rate). Multilevel analyses were employed to analyse help seeking behaviour among the prisoners.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Help seeking was substantially associated with sleep problems and drug problems. There was also a tendency for closed prisons as well as high staffing levels of healthcare professionals to be associated with elevated health care use.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study suggests that sleep problems and drug use are most frequently associated with health service use. The differences in health care use between prisons suggest that the implementation of prison health care standards should be addressed.</p

State of the California current 2012-13: No such thing as an “average” year

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42°N, but regions to the south, especially 33° to 36°N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42°N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer

Seatbelt use and risk of major injuries sustained by vehicle occupants during motor-vehicle crashes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

BackgroundIn 2004, a World Health Report on road safety called for enforcement of measures such as seatbelt use, effective at minimizing morbidity and mortality caused by road traffic accidents. However, injuries caused by seatbelt use have also been described. Over a decade after publication of the World Health Report on road safety, this study sought to investigate the relationship between seatbelt use and major injuries in belted compared to unbelted passengers.MethodsCohort studies published in English language from 2005 to 2018 were retrieved from seven databases. Critical appraisal of studies was carried out using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) checklist. Pooled risk of major injuries was assessed using the random effects meta-analytic model. Heterogeneity was quantified using I-squared and Tau-squared statistics. Funnel plots and Egger's test were used to investigate publication bias. This review is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42015020309).ResultsEleven studies, all carried out in developed countries were included. Overall, the risk of any major injury was significantly lower in belted passengers compared to unbelted passengers (RR 0.47; 95%CI, 0.29 to 0.80; I-2=99.7; P=0.000). When analysed by crash types, belt use significantly reduced the risk of any injury (RR 0.35; 95%CI, 0.24 to 0.52). Seatbelt use reduces the risk of facial injuries (RR=0.56, 95% CI=0.37 to 0.84), abdominal injuries (RR=0.87; 95% CI=0.78 to 0.98) and, spinal injuries (RR=0.56, 95% CI=0.37 to 0.84). However, we found no statistically significant difference in risk of head injuries (RR=0.49; 95% CI=0.22 to 1.08), neck injuries (RR=0.69: 95%CI 0.07 to 6.44), thoracic injuries (RR 0.96, 95%CI, 0.74 to 1.24), upper limb injuries (RR=1.05, 95%CI 0.83 to 1.34) and lower limb injuries (RR=0.77, 95%CI 0.58 to 1.04) between belted and non-belted passengers.ConclusionIn sum, the risk of most major road traffic injuries is lower in seatbelt users. Findings were inconclusive regarding seatbelt use and susceptibility to thoracic, head and neck injuries during road traffic accidents. Awareness should be raised about the dangers of inadequate seatbelt use. Future research should aim to assess the effects of seatbelt use on major injuries by crash type

Study protocol: developing a decision system for inclusive housing: applying a systematic, mixed-method quasi-experimental design

Background Identifying the housing preferences of people with complex disabilities is a much needed, but under-developed area of practice and scholarship. Despite the recognition that housing is a social determinant of health and quality of life, there is an absence of empirical methodologies that can practically and systematically involve consumers in this complex service delivery and housing design market. A rigorous process for making effective and consistent development decisions is needed to ensure resources are used effectively and the needs of consumers with complex disability are properly met. Methods/Design This 3-year project aims to identify how the public and private housing market in Australia can better respond to the needs of people with complex disabilities whilst simultaneously achieving key corporate objectives. First, using the Customer Relationship Management framework, qualitative (Nominal Group Technique) and quantitative (Discrete Choice Experiment) methods will be used to quantify the housing preferences of consumers and their carers. A systematic mixed-method, quasi-experimental design will then be used to quantify the development priorities of other key stakeholders (e.g., architects, developers, Government housing services etc.) in relation to inclusive housing for people with complex disabilities. Stakeholders randomly assigned to Group 1 (experimental group) will participate in a series of focus groups employing Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methodology. Stakeholders randomly assigned to Group 2 (control group) will participate in focus groups employing existing decision making processes to inclusive housing development (e.g., Risk, Opportunity, Cost, Benefit considerations). Using comparative stakeholder analysis, this research design will enable the AHP methodology (a proposed tool to guide inclusive housing development decisions) to be tested. Discussion It is anticipated that the findings of this study will enable stakeholders to incorporate consumer housing preferences into commercial decisions. Housing designers and developers will benefit from the creation of a parsimonious set of consumer-led housing preferences by which to make informed investments in future housing and contribute to future housing policy. The research design has not been applied in the Australian research context or elsewhere, and will provide a much needed blueprint for market investment to develop viable, consumer directed inclusive housing options for people with complex disability