The impact of HCV therapy in a high HIV-HCV prevalence population: A modeling study on people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Background Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) coinfection is a major global health problem especially among people who inject drugs (PWID), with significant clinical implications. Mathematical models have been used to great effect to shape HIV care, but few have been proposed for HIV/HCV. Methods We constructed a deterministic compartmental ODE model that incorporated layers for HIV disease progression, HCV disease progression and PWID demography. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and Methadone Maintenance Therapy (MMT) scale-ups were modeled as from 2016 and projected forward 10 years. HCV treatment roll-out was modeled beginning in 2026, after a variety of MMT scale-up scenarios, and projected forward 10 years. Results Our results indicate that scale-up of ART has a major impact on HIV though not on HCV burden. MMT scale-up has an impact on incidence of both infections. HCV treatment roll-out has a measurable impact on reductions of deaths, increasing multifold the mortality reductions afforded by just ART/MMT scale-ups. Conclusion HCV treatment roll-out can have major and long-lasting effects on averting PWID deaths on top of those averted by ART/MMT scale-up. Efficient intervention scale-up of HCV alongside HIV interventions is critical in Vietnam

Red Queen Dynamics with Non-Standard Fitness Interactions

Antagonistic coevolution between hosts and parasites can involve rapid fluctuations of genotype frequencies that are known as Red Queen dynamics. Under such dynamics, recombination in the hosts may be advantageous because genetic shuffling can quickly produce disproportionately fit offspring (the Red Queen hypothesis). Previous models investigating these dynamics have assumed rather simple models of genetic interactions between hosts and parasites. Here, we assess the robustness of earlier theoretical predictions about the Red Queen with respect to the underlying host-parasite interactions. To this end, we created large numbers of random interaction matrices, analysed the resulting dynamics through simulation, and ascertained whether recombination was favoured or disfavoured. We observed Red Queen dynamics in many of our simulations provided the interaction matrices exhibited sufficient ‘antagonicity’. In agreement with previous studies, strong selection on either hosts or parasites favours selection for increased recombination. However, fast changes in the sign of linkage disequilibrium or epistasis were only infrequently observed and do not appear to be a necessary condition for the Red Queen hypothesis to work. Indeed, recombination was often favoured even though the linkage disequilibrium remained of constant sign throughout the simulations. We conclude that Red Queen-type dynamics involving persistent fluctuations in host and parasite genotype frequencies appear to not be an artefact of specific assumptions about host-parasite fitness interactions, but emerge readily with the general interactions studied here. Our results also indicate that although recombination is often favoured, some of the factors previously thought to be important in this process such as linkage disequilibrium fluctuations need to be reassessed when fitness interactions between hosts and parasites are complex

Fitness Ranking of Individual Mutants Drives Patterns of Epistatic Interactions in HIV-1

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Predicting the Evolution of Sex on Complex Fitness Landscapes

Most population genetic theories on the evolution of sex or recombination are based on fairly restrictive assumptions about the nature of the underlying fitness landscapes. Here we use computer simulations to study the evolution of sex on fitness landscapes with different degrees of complexity and epistasis. We evaluate predictors of the evolution of sex, which are derived from the conditions established in the population genetic literature for the evolution of sex on simpler fitness landscapes. These predictors are based on quantities such as the variance of Hamming distance, mean fitness, additive genetic variance, and epistasis. We show that for complex fitness landscapes all the predictors generally perform poorly. Interestingly, while the simplest predictor, ΔVarHD, also suffers from a lack of accuracy, it turns out to be the most robust across different types of fitness landscapes. ΔVarHD is based on the change in Hamming distance variance induced by recombination and thus does not require individual fitness measurements. The presence of loci that are not under selection can, however, severely diminish predictor accuracy. Our study thus highlights the difficulty of establishing reliable criteria for the evolution of sex on complex fitness landscapes and illustrates the challenge for both theoretical and experimental research on the origin and maintenance of sexual reproduction

Taking Multiple Infections of Cells and Recombination into Account Leads to Small Within-Host Effective-Population-Size Estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, Ne, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate Ne∼102–104, smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (∼105), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates Ne>105, suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate Ne∼103–104, implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that Ne and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of Ne>105 reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with Ne∼103–104 may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence

Assessing Predicted HIV-1 Replicative Capacity in a Clinical Setting

HIV-1 replicative capacity (RC) provides a measure of within-host fitness and is determined in the context of phenotypic drug resistance testing. However it is unclear how these in-vitro measurements relate to in-vivo processes. Here we assess RCs in a clinical setting by combining a previously published machine-learning tool, which predicts RC values from partial pol sequences with genotypic and clinical data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The machine-learning tool is based on a training set consisting of 65000 RC measurements paired with their corresponding partial pol sequences. We find that predicted RC values (pRCs) correlate significantly with the virus load measured in 2073 infected but drug naïve individuals. Furthermore, we find that, for 53 pairs of sequences, each pair sampled in the same infected individual, the pRC was significantly higher for the sequence sampled later in the infection and that the increase in pRC was also significantly correlated with the increase in plasma viral load and with the length of the time-interval between the sampling points. These findings indicate that selection within a patient favors the evolution of higher replicative capacities and that these in-vitro fitness measures are indicative of in-vivo HIV virus load

Exploring the Complexity of the HIV-1 Fitness Landscape

Although fitness landscapes are central to evolutionary theory, so far no biologically realistic examples for large-scale fitness landscapes have been described. Most currently available biological examples are restricted to very few loci or alleles and therefore do not capture the high dimensionality characteristic of real fitness landscapes. Here we analyze large-scale fitness landscapes that are based on predictive models for in vitro replicative fitness of HIV-1. We find that these landscapes are characterized by large correlation lengths, considerable neutrality, and high ruggedness and that these properties depend only weakly on whether fitness is measured in the absence or presence of different antiretrovirals. Accordingly, adaptive processes on these landscapes depend sensitively on the initial conditions. While the relative extent to which mutations affect fitness on their own (main effects) or in combination with other mutations (epistasis) is a strong determinant of these properties, the fitness landscape of HIV-1 is considerably less rugged, less neutral, and more correlated than expected from the distribution of main effects and epistatic interactions alone. Overall this study confirms theoretical conjectures about the complexity of biological fitness landscapes and the importance of the high dimensionality of the genetic space in which adaptation takes place

Distributions of epistasis in microbes fit predictions from a fitness landscape model.

How do the fitness effects of several mutations combine? Despite its simplicity, this question is central to the understanding of multilocus evolution. Epistasis (the interaction between alleles at different loci), especially epistasis for fitness traits such as reproduction and survival, influences evolutionary predictions "almost whenever multilocus genetics matters". Yet very few models have sought to predict epistasis, and none has been empirically tested. Here we show that the distribution of epistasis can be predicted from the distribution of single mutation effects, based on a simple fitness landscape model. We show that this prediction closely matches the empirical measures of epistasis that have been obtained for Escherichia coli and the RNA virus vesicular stomatitis virus. Our results suggest that a simple fitness landscape model may be sufficient to quantitatively capture the complex nature of gene interactions. This model may offer a simple and widely applicable alternative to complex metabolic network models, in particular for making evolutionary predictions