Individual participant data meta-analysis to examine interactions between treatment effect and participant-level covariates: statistical recommendations for conduct and planning

Precision medicine research often searches for treatment‐covariate interactions, which refers to when a treatment effect (eg, measured as a mean difference, odds ratio, hazard ratio) changes across values of a participant‐level covariate (eg, age, gender, biomarker). Single trials do not usually have sufficient power to detect genuine treatment‐covariate interactions, which motivate the sharing of individual participant data (IPD) from multiple trials for meta‐analysis. Here, we provide statistical recommendations for conducting and planning an IPD meta‐analysis of randomized trials to examine treatment‐covariate interactions. For conduct, two‐stage and one‐stage statistical models are described, and we recommend: (i) interactions should be estimated directly, and not by calculating differences in meta‐analysis results for subgroups; (ii) interaction estimates should be based solely on within‐study information; (iii) continuous covariates and outcomes should be analyzed on their continuous scale; (iv) nonlinear relationships should be examined for continuous covariates, using a multivariate meta‐analysis of the trend (eg, using restricted cubic spline functions); and (v) translation of interactions into clinical practice is nontrivial, requiring individualized treatment effect prediction. For planning, we describe first why the decision to initiate an IPD meta‐analysis project should not be based on between‐study heterogeneity in the overall treatment effect; and second, how to calculate the power of a potential IPD meta‐analysis project in advance of IPD collection, conditional on characteristics (eg, number of participants, standard deviation of covariates) of the trials (potentially) promising their IPD. Real IPD meta‐analysis projects are used for illustration throughout

A tutorial on individualized treatment effect prediction from randomized trials with a binary endpoint.

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary outcome, these predictions of absolute individualized treatment effect require knowledge of the individual's risk without treatment and incorporation of a possibly differential treatment effect (ie, varying with patient characteristics). In this article, we lay out the causal structure of individualized treatment effect in terms of potential outcomes and describe the required assumptions that underlie a causal interpretation of its prediction. Subsequently, we describe regression models and model estimation techniques that can be used to move from average to more individualized treatment effect predictions. We focus mainly on logistic regression-based methods that are both well-known and naturally provide the required probabilistic estimates. We incorporate key components from both causal inference and prediction research to arrive at individualized treatment effect predictions. While the separate components are well known, their successful amalgamation is very much an ongoing field of research. We cut the problem down to its essentials in the setting of a randomized trial, discuss the importance of a clear definition of the estimand of interest, provide insight into the required assumptions, and give guidance with respect to modeling and estimation options. Simulated data illustrate the potential of different modeling options across scenarios that vary both average treatment effect and treatment effect heterogeneity. Two applied examples illustrate individualized treatment effect prediction in randomized trial data

Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

Background: Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey’s escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake’s approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake’s head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings: Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake’s body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish’s head, such that the snake’s jaws and the fish’s translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions: The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime

Increased noise levels have different impacts on the anti-predator behaviour of two sympatric fish species.

types: Journal ArticleCopyright: © 2014 Voellmy et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Animals must avoid predation to survive and reproduce, and there is increasing evidence that man-made (anthropogenic) factors can influence predator-prey relationships. Anthropogenic noise has been shown to have a variety of effects on many species, but work investigating the impact on anti-predator behaviour is rare. In this laboratory study, we examined how additional noise (playback of field recordings of a ship passing through a harbour), compared with control conditions (playback of recordings from the same harbours without ship noise), affected responses to a visual predatory stimulus. We compared the anti-predator behaviour of two sympatric fish species, the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and the European minnow (Phoxinus phoxinus), which share similar feeding and predator ecologies, but differ in their body armour. Effects of additional-noise playbacks differed between species: sticklebacks responded significantly more quickly to the visual predatory stimulus during additional-noise playbacks than during control conditions, while minnows exhibited no significant change in their response latency. Our results suggest that elevated noise levels have the potential to affect anti-predator behaviour of different species in different ways. Future field-based experiments are needed to confirm whether this effect and the interspecific difference exist in relation to real-world noise sources, and to determine survival and population consequences.University of BristolBasler Stiftung für Biologische ForschungDefr

The Structural Biology Knowledgebase: a portal to protein structures, sequences, functions, and methods

The Protein Structure Initiative’s Structural Biology Knowledgebase (SBKB, URL: http://sbkb.org) is an open web resource designed to turn the products of the structural genomics and structural biology efforts into knowledge that can be used by the biological community to understand living systems and disease. Here we will present examples on how to use the SBKB to enable biological research. For example, a protein sequence or Protein Data Bank (PDB) structure ID search will provide a list of related protein structures in the PDB, associated biological descriptions (annotations), homology models, structural genomics protein target status, experimental protocols, and the ability to order available DNA clones from the PSI:Biology-Materials Repository. A text search will find publication and technology reports resulting from the PSI’s high-throughput research efforts. Web tools that aid in research, including a system that accepts protein structure requests from the community, will also be described. Created in collaboration with the Nature Publishing Group, the Structural Biology Knowledgebase monthly update also provides a research library, editorials about new research advances, news, and an events calendar to present a broader view of structural genomics and structural biology

Variance in Centrality within Rock Hyrax Social Networks Predicts Adult Longevity

BACKGROUND: In communal mammals the levels of social interaction among group members vary considerably. In recent years, biologists have realized that within-group interactions may affect survival of the group members. Several recent studies have demonstrated that the social integration of adult females is positively associated with infant survival, and female longevity is affected by the strength and stability of the individual social bonds. Our aim was to determine the social factors that influence adult longevity in social mammals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As a model system, we studied the social rock hyrax (Procavia capensis), a plural breeder with low reproductive skew, whose groups are mainly composed of females. We applied network theory using 11 years of behavioral data to quantify the centrality of individuals within groups, and found adult longevity to be inversely correlated to the variance in centrality. In other words, animals in groups with more equal associations lived longer. Individual centrality was not correlated with longevity, implying that social tension may affect all group members and not only the weakest or less connected ones. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our novel findings support previous studies emphasizing the adaptive value of social associations and the consequences of inequality among adults within social groups. However, contrary to previous studies, we suggest that it is not the number or strength of associations that an adult individual has (i.e. centrality) that is important, but the overall configuration of social relationships within the group (i.e. centrality SD) that is a key factor in influencing longevity

Predation risk and foraging behavior of the hoary marmot in Alaska

I observed hoary marmots for three field seasons to determine how the distribution of food and the risk of predation influenced marmots' foraging behavior. I quantified the amount of time Marmota caligata foraged in different patches of alpine meadows and assessed the distribution and abundance of vegetation eaten by marmots in these meadows. Because marmots dig burrows and run to them when attacked by predators, marmot-toburrow distance provided an index of predation risk that could be specified for different meadow patches.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46873/1/265_2004_Article_BF00292992.pd

Excretion patterns of coccidian oocysts and nematode eggs during the reproductive season in Northern Bald Ibis (Geronticus eremita)

Individual reproductive success largely depends on the ability to optimize behaviour, immune function and the physiological stress response. We have investigated correlations between behaviour, faecal steroid metabolites, immune parameters, parasite excretion patterns and reproductive output in a critically endangered avian species, the Northern Bald Ibis (Geronticus eremita). In particular, we related haematocrit, heterophil/lymphocyte ratio, excreted immune-reactive corticosterone metabolites and social behaviour with parasite excretion and two individual fitness parameters, namely, number of eggs laid and number of fledglings. We found that the frequency of excretion of parasites’ oocysts and eggs tended to increase with ambient temperature. Paired individuals excreted significantly more samples containing nematode eggs than unpaired ones. The excretion of nematode eggs was also significantly more frequent in females than in males. Individuals with a high proportion of droppings containing coccidian oocysts were more often preened by their partners than individuals with lower excretion rates. We observed that the more eggs an individual incubated and the fewer offspring fledged, the higher the rates of excreted samples containing coccidian oocysts. Our results confirm that social behaviour, physiology and parasite burden are linked in a complex and context-dependent manner. They also contribute background information supporting future conservation programmes dealing with this critically endangered species

Sibling recognition in thirteen-lined ground squirrels: effects of genetic relatedness, rearing association, and olfaction

I investigated sibling-sibling recognition in captive thirteen-lined ground squirrels ( Spermophilus tridecemlineatus ) by cross-fostering lab-born pups shortly after birth. When young reached about 45 days of age, I observed dyadic interactions in a test arena of pairs from four relatedness X rearing groups, and recorded the frequency of “exploratory” encounters between individuals. Sibs-reared together and nonsibs-reared together exhibited significantly fewer exploratory encounters than either sibs-reared apart or nonsibsreared apart. Young reared together were equally exploratory, regadless of relatedness; similarly, young reared apart, whether they were sibs or nonsibs, showed similar levels of exploration. Thus, the differential treatment of siblings in the lab appears to be based on rearing association and not genetic relatedness per se. I interpret this recognition based on association (rearing familiarity) in the context of the species' social organization and compare my results on S. tridecemlineatus with similar studies on S. beldingi, S. parryii , and S. richardsonii . I also used an olfactory impairment technique (zinc sulfate) and found that differential treatment in thirteen-lined ground squirrels was influenced by olfactory cues.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46871/1/265_2004_Article_BF00299622.pd

Dendritic excitation–inhibition balance shapes cerebellar output during motor behaviour

Feedforward excitatory and inhibitory circuits regulate cerebellar output, but how these circuits interact to shape the somatodendritic excitability of Purkinje cells during motor behaviour remains unresolved. Here we perform dendritic and somatic patch-clamp recordings in vivo combined with optogenetic silencing of interneurons to investigate how dendritic excitation and inhibition generates bidirectional (that is, increased or decreased) Purkinje cell output during self-paced locomotion. We find that granule cells generate a sustained depolarization of Purkinje cell dendrites during movement, which is counterbalanced by variable levels of feedforward inhibition from local interneurons. Subtle differences in the dendritic excitation–inhibition balance generate robust, bidirectional changes in simple spike (SSp) output. Disrupting this balance by selectively silencing molecular layer interneurons results in unidirectional firing rate changes, increased SSp regularity and disrupted locomotor behaviour. Our findings provide a mechanistic understanding of how feedforward excitatory and inhibitory circuits shape Purkinje cell output during motor behaviour