1,680 research outputs found

    An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science

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    Prediction markets are powerful forecasting tools. They have the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to provide incentives for information acquisition. These market functionalities can be very valuable for scientific research. Here, we report an experiment that examines the compatibility of prediction markets with the current practice of scientific publication. We investigated three settings. In the first setting, different pieces of information were disclosed to the public during the experiment. In the second setting, participants received private information. In the third setting, each piece of information was private at first, but was subsequently disclosed to the public. An automated, subsidizing market maker provided additional incentives for trading and mitigated liquidity problems. We find that the third setting combines the advantages of the first and second settings. Market performance was as good as in the setting with public information, and better than in the setting with private information. In contrast to the first setting, participants could benefit from information advantages. Thus the publication of information does not detract from the functionality of prediction markets. We conclude that for integrating prediction markets into the practice of scientific research it is of advantage to use subsidizing market makers, and to keep markets aligned with current publication practice

    Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

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    There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

    Elasto-Plastic Stress Analysis in Rotating Disks and Pressure Vessels Made of Functionally Graded Materials

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    Abstract A new elastio-plastic stress solution in axisymmetric problems (rotating disk, cylindrical and spherical vessel) is presented. The rotating disk (cylindrical and spherical vessel) was made of a ceramic/metal functionally graded material, i.e. a particle-reinforced composite. It was assumed that the material's plastic deformation follows an isotropic strain-hardening rule based on the von-Mises yield criterion. The mechanical properties of the graded material were modeled by the modified rule of mixtures. By assuming small strains, Hencky's stress-strain relation was used to obtain the governing differential equations for the plastic region. A numerical method for solving those differential equations was then proposed that enabled the prediction of stress state within the structure. Selected finite element results were also presented to establish supporting evidence for the validation of the proposed approach

    Hypothesis: are neoplastic macrophages/microglia present in glioblastoma multiforme?

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    Most malignant brain tumours contain various numbers of cells with characteristics of activated or dysmorphic macrophages/microglia. These cells are generally considered part of the tumour stroma and are often described as TAM (tumour-associated macrophages). These types of cells are thought to either enhance or inhibit brain tumour progression. Recent evidence indicates that neoplastic cells with macrophage characteristics are found in numerous metastatic cancers of non-CNS (central nervous system) origin. Evidence is presented here suggesting that subpopulations of cells within human gliomas, specifically GBM (glioblastoma multiforme), are neoplastic macrophages/microglia. These cells are thought to arise following mitochondrial damage in fusion hybrids between neoplastic stem cells and macrophages/microglia

    Neurology and neuropsychiatry of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the early literature reveals frequent CNS manifestations and key emerging narratives

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    There is accumulating evidence of the neurological and neuropsychiatric features of infection with SARS-CoV-2. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to describe the characteristics of the early literature and estimate point prevalences for neurological and neuropsychiatric manifestations.We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and CINAHL up to 18 July 2020 for randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies, cross-sectional studies and case series. Studies reporting prevalences of neurological or neuropsychiatric symptoms were synthesised into meta-analyses to estimate pooled prevalence.13 292 records were screened by at least two authors to identify 215 included studies, of which there were 37 cohort studies, 15 case-control studies, 80 cross-sectional studies and 83 case series from 30 countries. 147 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The symptoms with the highest prevalence were anosmia (43.1% (95% CI 35.2% to 51.3%), n=15 975, 63 studies), weakness (40.0% (95% CI 27.9% to 53.5%), n=221, 3 studies), fatigue (37.8% (95% CI 31.6% to 44.4%), n=21 101, 67 studies), dysgeusia (37.2% (95% CI 29.8% to 45.3%), n=13 686, 52 studies), myalgia (25.1% (95% CI 19.8% to 31.3%), n=66 268, 76 studies), depression (23.0% (95% CI 11.8% to 40.2%), n=43 128, 10 studies), headache (20.7% (95% CI 16.1% to 26.1%), n=64 613, 84 studies), anxiety (15.9% (5.6% to 37.7%), n=42 566, 9 studies) and altered mental status (8.2% (95% CI 4.4% to 14.8%), n=49 326, 19 studies). Heterogeneity for most clinical manifestations was high.Neurological and neuropsychiatric symptoms of COVID-19 in the pandemic's early phase are varied and common. The neurological and psychiatric academic communities should develop systems to facilitate high-quality methodologies, including more rapid examination of the longitudinal course of neuropsychiatric complications of newly emerging diseases and their relationship to neuroimaging and inflammatory biomarkers

    A Novel Copper Chelate Modulates Tumor Associated Macrophages to Promote Anti-Tumor Response of T Cells

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    At the early stages of carcinogenesis, the induction of tumor specific T cell mediated immunity seems to block the tumor growth and give protective anti-tumor immune response. However, tumor associated macrophages (TAMs) might play an immunosuppressive role and subvert this anti tumor immunity leading to tumor progression and metastasis.The Cu (II) complex, (chelate), copper N-(2-hydroxy acetophenone) glycinate (CuNG), synthesized by us, has previously been shown to have a potential usefulness in immunotherapy of multiple drug resistant cancers. The current study demonstrates that CuNG treatment of TAMs modulates their status from immunosuppressive to proimmunogenic nature. Interestingly, these activated TAMs produced high levels of IL-12 along with low levels of IL-10 that not only allowed strong Th1 response marked by generation of high levels of IFN-gamma but also reduced activation induced T cell death. Similarly, CuNG treatment of peripheral blood monocytes from chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy refractory cancer patients also modulated their cytokine status. Most intriguingly, CuNG treated TAMs could influence reprogramming of TGF-beta producing CD4(+)CD25(+) T cells toward IFN-gamma producing T cells.Our results show the potential usefulness of CuNG in immunotherapy of drug-resistant cancers through reprogramming of TAMs that in turn reprogram the T cells and reeducate the T helper function to elicit proper anti-tumorogenic Th1 response leading to effective reduction in tumor growth

    Search for New Physics in e mu X Data at D0 Using Sleuth: A Quasi-Model-Independent Search Strategy for New Physics

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    We present a quasi-model-independent search for the physics responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking. We define final states to be studied, and construct a rule that identifies a set of relevant variables for any particular final state. A new algorithm ("Sleuth") searches for regions of excess in those variables and quantifies the significance of any detected excess. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the method, we apply it to the semi-inclusive channel e mu X collected in 108 pb^-1 of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV at the D0 experiment during 1992-1996 at the Fermilab Tevatron. We find no evidence of new high p_T physics in this sample.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Physical Review
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