The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model

Uncertainty in the simulation of the carbon cycle contributes significantly to uncertainty in the projections of future climate change. We use observations of forest fraction to constrain carbon cycle and land surface input parameters of the global climate model FAMOUS, in the presence of an uncertain structural error. Using an ensemble of climate model runs to build a computationally cheap statistical proxy (emulator) of the climate model, we use history matching to rule out input parameter settings where the corresponding climate model output is judged sufficiently different from observations, even allowing for uncertainty. Regions of parameter space where FAMOUS best simulates the Amazon forest fraction are incompatible with the regions where FAMOUS best simulates other forests, indicating a structural error in the model. We use the emulator to simulate the forest fraction at the best set of parameters implied by matching the model to the Amazon, Central African, South East Asian, and North American forests in turn. We can find parameters that lead to a realistic forest fraction in the Amazon, but that using the Amazon alone to tune the simulator would result in a significant overestimate of forest fraction in the other forests. Conversely, using the other forests to tune the simulator leads to a larger underestimate of the Amazon forest fraction. We use sensitivity analysis to find the parameters which have the most impact on simulator output and perform a history-matching exercise using credible estimates for simulator discrepancy and observational uncertainty terms. We are unable to constrain the parameters individually, but we rule out just under half of joint parameter space as being incompatible with forest observations. We discuss the possible sources of the discrepancy in the simulated Amazon, including missing processes in the land surface component and a bias in the climatology of the Amazon.This work was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Doug McNeall was supported on secondment to Exeter University by the Met Office Academic Partnership (MOAP) for part of the work. Jonny Williams was supported by funding from Statoil ASA, Norwa

Evaluating a transfer gradient assumption in a fomite-mediated microbial transmission model using an experimental and Bayesian approach

Current microbial exposure models assume that microbial exchange follows a concentration gradient during hand-to-surface contacts. Our objectives were to evaluate this assumption using transfer efficiency experiments and to evaluate a model's ability to explain concentration changes using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) on these experimental data. Experiments were conducted with two phages (MS2, ΦX174) simultaneously to study bidirectional transfer. Concentrations on the fingertip and surface were quantified before and after fingertip-to-surface contacts. Prior distributions for surface and fingertip swabbing efficiencies and transfer efficiency were used to estimate concentrations on the fingertip and surface post contact. To inform posterior distributions, Euclidean distances were calculated for predicted detectable concentrations (log10 PFU cm−2) on the fingertip and surface post contact in comparison with experimental values. To demonstrate the usefulness of posterior distributions in calibrated model applications, posterior transfer efficiencies were used to estimate rotavirus infection risks for a fingertip-to-surface and subsequent fingertip-to-mouth contact. Experimental findings supported the transfer gradient assumption. Through ABC, the model explained concentration changes more consistently when concentrations on the fingertip and surface were similar. Future studies evaluating microbial transfer should consider accounting for differing fingertip-to-surface and surface-to-fingertip transfer efficiencies and extend this work for other microbial types

Paleoecology and evolutionary response of planktonic foraminifera to the mid-Pliocene Warm Period and Plio-Pleistocene bipolar ice sheet expansion

The Pliocene-Recent is associated with many important climatic and paleoceanographic changes, which have shaped the biotic and abiotic nature of the modern world. The closure of the Central American Seaway and the development and intensification of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets had profound global impacts on the latitudinal and vertical structure of the oceans, triggering the extinction and radiation of many marine groups. In particular, marine calcifying planktonic foraminifera, which are highly sensitive to water column structure, exhibited a series of extinctions as global temperatures fell. By analyzing high-resolution (∼ 5 kyr) sedimentary records from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, complemented with global records from the novel Triton dataset, we document the biotic changes in this microfossil group, within which three species displayed isochronous co-extinction, and species with cold-water affinity increased in dominance as meridional temperature gradients steepened. We suggest that these changes were associated with the terminal stages of the closure of the Central American Seaway, where following the sustained warmth of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, bipolar ice sheet expansion initiated a world in which cold- and deep-dwelling species became increasingly more successful. Such global-scale paleoecological and macroevolutionary variations between the Pliocene and the modern icehouse climate would suggest significant deviations from pre-industrial baselines within modern and future marine plankton communities as anthropogenic climate forcing continues

Evaluation of a national universal coverage campaign of long-lasting insecticidal nets in a rural district in north-west Tanzania.

\ud \ud Insecticide-treated nets (ITN) are one of the most effective measures for preventing malaria. Mass distribution campaigns are being used to rapidly increase net coverage in at-risk populations. This study had two purposes: to evaluate the impact of a universal coverage campaign (UCC) of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) on LLIN ownership and usage, and to identify factors that may be associated with inadequate coverage. In 2011 two cross-sectional household surveys were conducted in 50 clusters in Muleba district, north-west Tanzania. Prior to the UCC 3,246 households were surveyed and 2,499 afterwards. Data on bed net ownership and usage, demographics of household members and household characteristics including factors related to socio-economic status were gathered, using an adapted version of the standard Malaria Indicator Survey. Specific questions relating to the UCC process were asked. The proportion of households with at least one ITN increased from 62.6% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 60.9-64.2) before the UCC to 90.8% (95% CI = 89.0-92.3) afterwards. ITN usage in all residents rose from 40.8% to 55.7%. After the UCC 58.4% (95% CI = 54.7-62.1) of households had sufficient ITNs to cover all their sleeping places. Households with children under five years (OR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.9-2.9) and small households (OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5-2.4) were most likely to reach universal coverage. Poverty was not associated with net coverage. Eighty percent of households surveyed received LLINs from the campaign. The UCC in Muleba district of Tanzania was equitable, greatly improving LLIN ownership and, more moderately, usage. However, the goal of universal coverage in terms of the adequate provision of nets was not achieved. Multiple, continuous delivery systems and education activities are required to maintain and improve bed net ownership and usage.\ud \u

Epigenetic Alterations in Liver of C57BL/6J Mice after Short-Term Inhalational Exposure to 1,3-Butadiene

Background1,3-Butadiene (BD) is a high-volume industrial chemical and a known human carcinogen. The main mode of BD carcinogenicity is thought to involve formation of genotoxic epoxides.ObjectivesIn this study we tested the hypothesis that BD may be epigenotoxic (i.e., cause changes in DNA and histone methylation) and explored the possible molecular mechanisms for the epigenetic changes.Methods and ResultsWe administered BD (6.25 and 625 ppm) to C57BL/6J male mice by inhalation for 2 weeks (6 hr/day, 5 days a week) and then examined liver tissue from these mice for signs of toxicity using histopathology and gene expression analyses. We observed no changes in mice exposed to 6.25 ppm BD, but glycogen depletion and dysregulation of hepatotoxicity biomarker genes were observed in mice exposed to 625 ppm BD. We detected N-7-(2,3,4-trihydroxybut-1-yl)guanine (THB-Gua) adducts in liver DNA of exposed mice in a dose-responsive manner, and also observed extensive alterations in the cellular epigenome in the liver, including demethylation of global DNA and repetitive elements and a decrease in histone H3 and H4 lysine methylation. In addition, we observed down-regulation of DNA methyltransferase 1 (Dnmt1) and suppressor of variegation 3–9 homolog 1, a histone lysine methyltransferase (Suv39h1), and up-regulation of the histone demethylase Jumonji domain 2 (Jmjd2a), proteins responsible for the accurate maintenance of the epigenetic marks. Although the epigenetic effects were most pronounced in the 625-ppm exposure group, some effects were evident in mice exposed to 6.25 ppm BD.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that exposure to BD leads to epigenetic alterations in the liver, which may be important contributors to the mode of BD carcinogenicity

Fluorescent characterization of differentiated myotubes using flow cytometry

Flow cytometry is routinely used in the assessment of skeletal muscle progenitor cell (myoblast) populations. However, a full gating strategy, inclusive of difficult to interpret forward and side scatter data, which documents cytometric analysis of differentiated myoblasts (myotubes) has not been reported. Beyond changes in size and shape, there are substantial metabolic and protein changes in myotubes allowing for their potential identification within heterogenous cell suspensions. To establish the utility of flow cytometry for determination of myoblasts and myotubes, C2C12 murine cell populations were assessed for cell morphology and metabolic reprogramming. Laser scatter, both forward (FSC; size) and side (SSC; granularity), measured cell morphology, while mitochondrial mass, reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation and DNA content were quantified using the fluorescent probes, MitoTracker green, CM-H2DCFDA and Vybrant DyeCycle, respectively. Immunophenotyping for myosin heavy chain (MyHC) was utilized to confirm myotube differentiation. Cellular viability was determined using Annexin V/propidium iodide dual labelling. Fluorescent microscopy was employed to visualize fluorescence and morphology. Myotube and myoblast populations were resolvable through non-intuitive interpretation of laser scatter-based morphology assessment and mitochondrial mass and activity assessment. Myotubes appeared to have similar sizes to the myoblasts based on laser scatter but exhibited greater mitochondrial mass (159%, p < 0.0001), ROS production (303%, p < 0.0001), DNA content (18%, p < 0.001) and expression of MyHC (147%, p < 0.001) compared to myoblasts. Myotube sub-populations contained a larger viable cluster of cells which were unable to be fractionated from myoblast populations and a smaller population cluster which likely contains apoptotic bodies. Imaging of differentiated myoblasts that had transited through the flow cytometer revealed the presence of intact, ‘rolled-up’ myotubes, which would alter laser scatter properties and potential transit through the laser beam. Our results indicate that myotubes can be analyzed successfully using flow cytometry. Increased mitochondrial mass, ROS and DNA content are key features that correlate with MyHC expression but due to myotubes ‘rolling up’ during flow cytometric analysis, laser scatter determination of size is not positively correlated; a phenomenon observed with some size determination particles and related to surface properties of said particles. We also note a greater heterogeneity of myotubes compared to myoblasts as evidenced by the 2 distinct sub-populations. We suggest that acoustic focussing may prove effective in identifying myotube sub populations compared to traditional hydrodynamic focussing

The Rewiring of Ubiquitination Targets in a Pathogenic Yeast Promotes Metabolic Flexibility, Host Colonization and Virulence

Funding: This work was funded by the European Research Council [http://erc.europa.eu/], AJPB (STRIFE Advanced Grant; C-2009-AdG-249793). The work was also supported by: the Wellcome Trust [www.wellcome.ac.uk], AJPB (080088, 097377); the UK Biotechnology and Biological Research Council [www.bbsrc.ac.uk], AJPB (BB/F00513X/1, BB/K017365/1); the CNPq-Brazil [http://cnpq.br], GMA (Science without Borders fellowship 202976/2014-9); and the National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research [www.nc3rs.org.uk], DMM (NC/K000306/1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Acknowledgments We thank Dr. Elizabeth Johnson (Mycology Reference Laboratory, Bristol) for providing strains, and the Aberdeen Proteomics facility for the biotyping of S. cerevisiae clinical isolates, and to Euroscarf for providing S. cerevisiae strains and plasmids. We are grateful to our Microscopy Facility in the Institute of Medical Sciences for their expert help with the electron microscopy, and to our friends in the Aberdeen Fungal Group for insightful discussions.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Conserved Tarp Actin Binding Domain Is Important for Chlamydial Invasion

The translocated actin recruiting phosphoprotein (Tarp) is conserved among all pathogenic chlamydial species. Previous reports identified single C. trachomatis Tarp actin binding and proline rich domains required for Tarp mediated actin nucleation. A peptide antiserum specific for the Tarp actin binding domain was generated and inhibited actin polymerization in vitro and C. trachomatis entry in vivo, indicating an essential role for Tarp in chlamydial pathogenesis. Sequence analysis of Tarp orthologs from additional chlamydial species and C. trachomatis serovars indicated multiple putative actin binding sites. In order to determine whether the identified actin binding domains are functionally conserved, GST-Tarp fusions from multiple chlamydial species were examined for their ability to bind and nucleate actin. Chlamydial Tarps harbored variable numbers of actin binding sites and promoted actin nucleation as determined by in vitro polymerization assays. Our findings indicate that Tarp mediated actin binding and nucleation is a conserved feature among diverse chlamydial species and this function plays a critical role in bacterial invasion of host cells

Cigarette smoke promotes dendritic cell accumulation in COPD; a Lung Tissue Research Consortium study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Abnormal immune responses are believed to be highly relevant in the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Dendritic cells provide a critical checkpoint for immunity by their capacity to both induce and suppress immunity. Although evident that cigarette smoke, the primary cause of COPD, significantly influences dendritic cell functions, little is known about the roles of dendritic cells in the pathogenesis of COPD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The extent of dendritic cell infiltration in COPD tissue specimens was determined using immunohistochemical localization of CD83+ cells (marker of matured myeloid dendritic cells), and CD1a+ cells (Langerhans cells). The extent of tissue infiltration with Langerhans cells was also determined by the relative expression of the CD207 gene in COPD <it>versus </it>control tissues. To determine mechanisms by which dendritic cells accumulate in COPD, complimentary studies were conducted using monocyte-derived human dendritic cells exposed to cigarette smoke extract (CSE), and dendritic cells extracted from mice chronically exposed to cigarette smoke.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In human COPD lung tissue, we detected a significant increase in the total number of CD83+ cells, and significantly higher amounts of CD207 mRNA when compared with control tissue. Human monocyte-derived dendritic cells exposed to CSE (0.1-2%) exhibited enhanced survival <it>in vitro </it>when compared with control dendritic cells. Murine dendritic cells extracted from mice exposed to cigarette smoke for 4 weeks, also demonstrated enhanced survival compared to dendritic cells extracted from control mice. Acute exposure of human dendritic cells to CSE induced the cellular pro-survival proteins heme-oxygenase-1 (HO-1), and B cell lymphoma leukemia-x(L) (Bcl-xL), predominantly through oxidative stress. Although activated human dendritic cells conditioned with CSE expressed diminished migratory CCR7 expression, their migration towards the CCR7 ligand CCL21 was not impaired.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data indicate that COPD is associated with increased numbers of cells bearing markers associated with Langerhans cells and mature dendritic cells, and that cigarette smoke promotes survival signals and augments survival of dendritic cells. Although CSE suppressed dendritic cell CCR7 expression, migration towards a CCR7 ligand was not diminished, suggesting that reduced CCR7-dependent migration is unlikely to be an important mechanism for dendritic cell retention in the lungs of smokers with COPD.</p