From Molecular Genetics to Phylodynamics: Evolutionary Relevance of Mutation Rates Across Viruses

Although evolution is a multifactorial process, theory posits that the speed of molecular evolution should be directly determined by the rate at which spontaneous mutations appear. To what extent these two biochemical and population-scale processes are related in nature, however, is largely unknown. Viruses are an ideal system for addressing this question because their evolution is fast enough to be observed in real time, and experimentally-determined mutation rates are abundant. This article provides statistically supported evidence that the mutation rate determines molecular evolution across all types of viruses. Properties of the viral genome such as its size and chemical composition are identified as major determinants of these rates. Furthermore, a quantitative analysis reveals that, as expected, evolution rates increase linearly with mutation rates for slowly mutating viruses. However, this relationship plateaus for fast mutating viruses. A model is proposed in which deleterious mutations impose an evolutionary speed limit and set an extinction threshold in nature. The model is consistent with data from replication kinetics, selection strength and chemical mutagenesis studies

Virus Replication as a Phenotypic Version of Polynucleotide Evolution

In this paper we revisit and adapt to viral evolution an approach based on the theory of branching process advanced by Demetrius, Schuster and Sigmund ("Polynucleotide evolution and branching processes", Bull. Math. Biol. 46 (1985) 239-262), in their study of polynucleotide evolution. By taking into account beneficial effects we obtain a non-trivial multivariate generalization of their single-type branching process model. Perturbative techniques allows us to obtain analytical asymptotic expressions for the main global parameters of the model which lead to the following rigorous results: (i) a new criterion for "no sure extinction", (ii) a generalization and proof, for this particular class of models, of the lethal mutagenesis criterion proposed by Bull, Sanju\'an and Wilke ("Theory of lethal mutagenesis for viruses", J. Virology 18 (2007) 2930-2939), (iii) a new proposal for the notion of relaxation time with a quantitative prescription for its evaluation, (iv) the quantitative description of the evolution of the expected values in in four distinct "stages": extinction threshold, lethal mutagenesis, stationary "equilibrium" and transient. Finally, based on these quantitative results we are able to draw some qualitative conclusions.Comment: 23 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1110.336

Temporal Dynamics of Intrahost Molecular Evolution for a Plant RNA Virus

[EN] Populations of plant RNA viruses are highly polymorphic in infected plants, which may allow rapid within-host evolution. To understand tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) evolution, longitudinal samples from experimentally evolved populations in the natural host tobacco and from the alternative host pepper were phenotypically characterized and genetically analyzed. Temporal and compartmental variabilities of TEV populations were quantified using high throughput Illumina sequencing and population genetic approaches. Of the two viral phenotypic traits measured, virulence increased in the novel host but decreased in the original one, and viral load decreased in both hosts, though to a lesser extent in the novel one. Dynamics of population genetic diversity were also markedly different among hosts. Population heterozygosity increased in the ancestral host, with a dominance of synonymous mutations fixed, whereas it did not change or even decreased in the new host, with an excess of nonsynonymous mutations. All together, these observations suggest that directional selection is the dominant evolutionary force in TEV populations evolving in a novel host whereas either diversifying selection or random genetic drift may play a fundamental role in the natural host. To better understand these evolutionary dynamics, we developed a computer simulation model that incorporates the effects of mutation, selection, and drift. Upon parameterization with empirical data from previous studies, model predictions matched the observed patterns, thus reinforcing our idea that the empirical patterns of mutation accumulation represent adaptive evolution.The authors thank Francisca de la Iglesia and Paula Agudo for excellent technical assistance, our labmates for useful discussions and suggestions, and Dr Jose A. Daros for gifting us the pMTEV infectious clone. This work was supported by grants BFU2009-06993 and BFU2012-30805 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO), grant PROMETEOII/2014/021 from Generalitat Valenciana, and by the European Commission 7th Framework Programme (FP7-ICT-611640 FET Proactive: Evolving Living Technologies) EvoEvo project to S.F.E. J.M.C. was supported by a JAE-doc postdoctoral contract from CSIC. A.W. was supported by the EvoEvo project. J.H. was recipient of a predoctoral contract from MINECO. M.P.Z. was supported by a Juan de la Cierva postdoctoral contract from MINECO.Cuevas, JM.; Willemsen, A.; Hillung, J.; Zwart, MP.; Elena Fito, SF. (2015). Temporal Dynamics of Intrahost Molecular Evolution for a Plant RNA Virus. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 32(5):1132-1147. https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msv028S1132114732

Quasispecies Spatial Models for RNA Viruses with Different Replication Modes and Infection Strategies

Empirical observations and theoretical studies suggest that viruses may use different replication strategies to amplify their genomes, which impact the dynamics of mutation accumulation in viral populations and therefore, their fitness and virulence. Similarly, during natural infections, viruses replicate and infect cells that are rarely in suspension but spatially organized. Surprisingly, most quasispecies models of virus replication have ignored these two phenomena. In order to study these two viral characteristics, we have developed stochastic cellular automata models that simulate two different modes of replication (geometric vs stamping machine) for quasispecies replicating and spreading on a two-dimensional space. Furthermore, we explored these two replication models considering epistatic fitness landscapes (antagonistic vs synergistic) and different scenarios for cell-to-cell spread, one with free superinfection and another with superinfection inhibition. We found that the master sequences for populations replicating geometrically and with antagonistic fitness effects vanished at low critical mutation rates. By contrast, the highest critical mutation rate was observed for populations replicating geometrically but with a synergistic fitness landscape. Our simulations also showed that for stamping machine replication and antagonistic epistasis, a combination that appears to be common among plant viruses, populations further increased their robustness by inhibiting superinfection. We have also shown that the mode of replication strongly influenced the linkage between viral loci, which rapidly reached linkage equilibrium at increasing mutations for geometric replication. We also found that the strategy that minimized the time required to spread over the whole space was the stamping machine with antagonistic epistasis among mutations. Finally, our simulations revealed that the multiplicity of infection fluctuated but generically increased along time

Effect of Host Species on the Distribution of Mutational Fitness Effects for an RNA Virus

Knowledge about the distribution of mutational fitness effects (DMFE) is essential for many evolutionary models. In recent years, the properties of the DMFE have been carefully described for some microorganisms. In most cases, however, this information has been obtained only for a single environment, and very few studies have explored the effect that environmental variation may have on the DMFE. Environmental effects are particularly relevant for the evolution of multi-host parasites and thus for the emergence of new pathogens. Here we characterize the DMFE for a collection of twenty single-nucleotide substitution mutants of Tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) across a set of eight host environments. Five of these host species were naturally infected by TEV, all belonging to family Solanaceae, whereas the other three were partially susceptible hosts belonging to three other plant families. First, we found a significant virus genotype-by-host species interaction, which was sustained by differences in genetic variance for fitness and the pleiotropic effect of mutations among hosts. Second, we found that the DMFEs were markedly different between Solanaceae and non-Solanaceae hosts. Exposure of TEV genotypes to non-Solanaceae hosts led to a large reduction of mean viral fitness, while the variance remained constant and skewness increased towards the right tail. Within the Solanaceae hosts, the distribution contained an excess of deleterious mutations, whereas for the non-Solanaceae the fraction of beneficial mutations was significantly larger. All together, this result suggests that TEV may easily broaden its host range and improve fitness in new hosts, and that knowledge about the DMFE in the natural host does not allow for making predictions about its properties in an alternative host

The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a classe is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting on phenotypes that differ in the trade-off between replicative ability and mutational robustness. In fact, entry into error catastrophe occurs when the mutant phenotype acquires a selective advantage over the master phenotype. As both entry into error catastrophe and survival of the flattest are caused by natural selection when mutation rate is increased, we propose differentiating between them by the level of selection at which natural selection acts. So we propose to consider the transition to error catastrophe as a phenomenon of intra-quasispecies selection, and survival of the flattest as a phenomenon of inter-quasispecies selection.</p

Quasispecies Theory and the Behavior of RNA Viruses

A large number of medically important viruses, including HIV, hepatitis C virus, and influenza, have RNA genomes. These viruses replicate with extremely high mutation rates and exhibit significant genetic diversity. This diversity allows a viral population to rapidly adapt to dynamic environments and evolve resistance to vaccines and antiviral drugs. For the last 30 years, quasispecies theory has provided a population-based framework for understanding RNA viral evolution. A quasispecies is a cloud of diverse variants that are genetically linked through mutation, interact cooperatively on a functional level, and collectively contribute to the characteristics of the population. Many predictions of quasispecies theory run counter to traditional views of microbial behavior and evolution and have profound implications for our understanding of viral disease. Here, we discuss basic principles of quasispecies theory and describe its relevance for our understanding of viral fitness, virulence, and antiviral therapeutic strategy

Does Mutational Robustness Inhibit Extinction by Lethal Mutagenesis in Viral Populations?

Lethal mutagenesis is a promising new antiviral therapy that kills a virus by raising its mutation rate. One potential shortcoming of lethal mutagenesis is that viruses may resist the treatment by evolving genomes with increased robustness to mutations. Here, we investigate to what extent mutational robustness can inhibit extinction by lethal mutagenesis in viruses, using both simple toy models and more biophysically realistic models based on RNA secondary-structure folding. We show that although the evolution of greater robustness may be promoted by increasing the mutation rate of a viral population, such evolution is unlikely to greatly increase the mutation rate required for certain extinction. Using an analytic multi-type branching process model, we investigate whether the evolution of robustness can be relevant on the time scales on which extinction takes place. We find that the evolution of robustness matters only when initial viral population sizes are small and deleterious mutation rates are only slightly above the level at which extinction can occur. The stochastic calculations are in good agreement with simulations of self-replicating RNA sequences that have to fold into a specific secondary structure to reproduce. We conclude that the evolution of mutational robustness is in most cases unlikely to prevent the extinction of viruses by lethal mutagenesis

Genomic transformation and social organization during the Copper Age-Bronze Age transition in southern Iberia

The emerging Bronze Age (BA) of southeastern Iberia saw marked social changes. Late Copper Age (CA) settlements were abandoned in favor of hilltop sites, and collective graves were largely replaced by single or double burials with often distinctive grave goods indirectly reflecting a hierarchical social organization, as exemplified by the BA El Argar group. We explored this transition from a genomic viewpoint by tripling the amount of data available for this period. Concomitant with the rise of El Argar starting ~2200 cal BCE, we observe a complete turnover of Y-chromosome lineages along with the arrival of steppe-related ancestry. This pattern is consistent with a founder effect in male lineages, supported by our finding that males shared more relatives at sites than females. However, simple two-source models do not find support in some El Argar groups, suggesting additional genetic contributions from the Mediterranean that could predate the BA