Assessment of the response of pollinator abundance to environmental pressures using structured expert elicitation

Policy-makers often need to rely on experts with disparate fields of expertise when making policy choices in complex, multi-faceted, dynamic environments such as those dealing with ecosystem services. For policy-makers wishing to make evidence-based decisions which will best support pollinator abundance and pollination services, one of the problems faced is how to access the information and evidence they need, and how to combine it to formulate and evaluate candidate policies. This is even more complex when multiple factors provide influence in combination. The pressures affecting the survival and pollination capabilities of honey bees (Apis mellifera), wild bees, and other pollinators are well documented, but incomplete. In order to estimate the potential effectiveness of various candidate policy choices, there is an urgent need to quantify the effect of various combinations of factors on the pollination ecosystem service. Using high-quality experimental evidence is the most robust approach, but key aspects of the system may not be amenable to experimentation or may be prohibitive based on cost, time and effort. In such cases, it is possible to obtain the required evidence by using structured expert elicitation, a method for quantitatively characterizing the state of knowledge about an uncertain quantity. Here we report and discuss the outputs of the novel use of a structured expert elicitation, designed to quantify the probability of good pollinator abundance given a variety of weather, disease, and habitat scenarios

Bird pollination of Canary Island endemic plants

The Canary Islands are home to a guild of endemic, threatened bird pollinated plants. Previous work has suggested that these plants evolved floral traits as adaptations to pollination by flower specialist sunbirds, but subsequently they appear to be have co-opted passerine birds as sub-optimal pollinators. To test this idea we carried out a quantitative study of the pollination biology of three of the bird pollinated plants, Canarina canariensis (Campanulaceae), Isoplexis canariensis (Veronicaceae) and Lotus berthelotii (Fabaceae), on the island of Tenerife. Using colour vision models, we predicted the detectability of flowers to bird and bee pollinators. We measured pollinator visitation rates, nectar standing crops, as well as seed set and pollen removal and deposition. These data showed that the plants are effectively pollinated by non-flower specialist passerine birds that only occasionally visit flowers. The large nectar standing crops and extended flower longevities (>10days) of Canarina and Isoplexis suggests that they have evolved bird pollination system that effectively exploits these low frequency non-specialist pollen vectors and is in no way suboptimal. Seed set in two of the three species was high, and was significantly reduced or zero in flowers where pollinator access was restricted. In L. berthelotii, however, no fruit set was observed, probably because the plants were self incompatible horticultural clones of a single genet. We also show that, while all three species are easily detectable for birds, the orange Canarina and the red Lotus (but less so the yellow-orange Isoplexis) should be difficult to detect for insect pollinators without specialised red receptors, such as bumblebees. Contrary to expectations if we accept that the flowers are primarily adapted to sunbird pollination, the chiffchaff (Phylloscopus canariensis) was an effective pollinator of these species

The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems

In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries at the global and national levels and show that these networks are significantly nested. This means that the less filled rows and columns of these networks' adjacency matrices tend to be subsets of the fuller rows and columns. Moreover, we show that nestedness remains relatively stable as the matrices become more filled over time and that this occurs because of a bias for industries that deviate from the networks' nestedness to disappear, and a bias for the missing industries that reduce nestedness to appear. This makes the appearance and disappearance of individual industries in each location predictable. We interpret the high level of nestedness observed in these networks in the context of the neutral model of development introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009). We show that, for the observed fills, the model can reproduce the high level of nestedness observed in these networks only when we assume a high level of heterogeneity in the distribution of capabilities available in countries and required by products. In the context of the neutral model, this implies that the high level of nestedness observed in these economic networks emerges as a combination of both, the complementarity of inputs and heterogeneity in the number of capabilities available in countries and required by products. The stability of nestedness in industrial ecosystems, and the predictability implied by it, demonstrates the importance of the study of network properties in the evolution of economic networks.Comment: 26 page

Association of A1C and Fasting Plasma Glucose Levels With Diabetic Retinopathy Prevalence in the U.S. Population: Implications for diabetes diagnostic thresholds

Abstract OBJECTIVE To examine the association of A1C levels and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with diabetic retinopathy in the U.S. population and to compare the ability of the two glycemic measures to discriminate between people with and without retinopathy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study included 1,066 individuals aged ≥40 years from the 2005–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. A1C, FPG, and 45° color digital retinal images were assessed. Retinopathy was defined as a level ≥14 on the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study severity scale. We used joinpoint regression to identify linear inflections of prevalence of retinopathy in the association between A1C and FPG. RESULTS The overall prevalence of retinopathy was 11%, which is appreciably lower than the prevalence in people with diagnosed diabetes (36%). There was a sharp increase in retinopathy prevalence in those with A1C ≥5.5% or FPG ≥5.8 mmol/l. After excluding 144 people using hypoglycemic medication, the change points for the greatest increase in retinopathy prevalence were A1C 5.5% and FPG 7.0 mmol/l. The coefficients of variation were 15.6 for A1C and 28.8 for FPG. Based on the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves, A1C was a stronger discriminator of retinopathy (0.71 [95% CI 0.66–0.76]) than FPG (0.65 [0.60 – 0.70], P for difference = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS The steepest increase in retinopathy prevalence occurs among individuals with A1C ≥5.5% and FPG ≥5.8 mmol/l. A1C discriminates prevalence of retinopathy better than FPG. Tests of glycemia and their thresholds for diabetes diagnosis is an area of long-standing debate. The presence of diabetic retinopathy is arguably the best criterion from which to compare glycemic measures because it is a specific and early clinical complication usually related to diabetes, and it represents a specific and relevant clinical end point for judging an alternative test (1). For these reasons, diabetic retinopathy has served as the basis for diagnostic criteria of type 2 diabetes (2–4) and provides the rationale for the American Diabetes Association's recommendation of a threshold of a fasting plasma glucose (FPG) of 7.0 mmol/l to define the presence of diabetes (4,5). However, an analysis of three recent population-based cross-sectional studies suggested that there may be considerable variation across populations and that the association of FPG with retinopathy prevalence may be more of a continuous relationship than previously thought (5). A1C levels are being considered as an alternative diagnostic tool for diabetes diagnosis (6). Unlike FPG, A1C does not require an overnight fast, is not affected by short-term lifestyle changes, and has less variability within individuals than FPG (7–9). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the prevalence of retinopathy across the spectrum of A1C levels, which could assist in the designation of ideal A1C diagnostic cut points (2,3). The newly released National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2006 incorporated a multiple-field retinal photograph examination, presenting an opportunity to reassess the selection of glucose and A1C cut points for diabetes diagnosis. Our objectives were to examine the relation between levels of A1C and FPG and prevalence of retinopathy in the U.S. population and to compare the ability of both measures to differentiate people with and without retinopathy

Diversity and abundance of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in an urban centre: a case study from Northampton (England)

The apparent reduction of solitary and primitively eusocial bees populations has remained a huge concern over the past few decades and urbanisation is considered as one of the factors affecting bees at different scales depending on bee guild. As urbanisation is increasing globally it necessitates more research to understand the complex community dynamics of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in urban settings. We investigated the urban core of a British town for diversity and abundance of solitary bees using standardized methods, and compared the results with nearby meadows and nature reserves. The study recorded 48 species within the town, about 22 % of the total species and 58 % of the genera of solitary bees in the United Kingdom. Furthermore we found the urban core to be more diverse and abundant in solitary and primitively eusocial bees compared to the meadows and nature re-serves. Of particular note was an urban record of the nationally rare Red Data Book species Coelioxys quadridentata and its host Anthophora quadrimaculata. This research demonstrates that urban settings can contribute significantly to the conservation of solitary and primitively eusocial bees in Britain

Comparative Phylogeography in a Specific and Obligate Pollination Antagonism

In specific and obligate interactions the nature and abundance of a given species can have important effects on the survival and population dynamics of associated organisms. In a phylogeographic framework, we therefore expect that the fates of organisms interacting specifically are also tightly interrelated. Here we investigate such a scenario by analyzing the genetic structures of species interacting in an obligate plant-insect pollination lure-and-trap antagonism, involving Arum maculatum (Araceae) and its specific psychodid (Diptera) visitors Psychoda phalaenoides and Psycha grisescens. Because the interaction is asymmetric (i.e., only the plant depends on the insect), we expect the genetic structure of the plant to be related with the historical pollinator availability, yielding incongruent phylogeographic patterns between the interacting organisms

Garden and landscape-scale correlates of moths of differing conservation status: significant effects of urbanization and habitat diversity

Moths are abundant and ubiquitous in vegetated terrestrial environments and are pollinators, important herbivores of wild plants, and food for birds, bats and rodents. In recent years, many once abundant and widespread species have shown sharp declines that have been cited by some as indicative of a widespread insect biodiversity crisis. Likely causes of these declines include agricultural intensification, light pollution, climate change, and urbanization; however, the real underlying cause(s) is still open to conjecture. We used data collected from the citizen science Garden Moth Scheme (GMS) to explore the spatial association between the abundance of 195 widespread British species of moth, and garden habitat and landscape features, to see if spatial habitat and landscape associations varied for species of differing conservation status. We found that associations with habitat and landscape composition were species-specific, but that there were consistent trends in species richness and total moth abundance. Gardens with more diverse and extensive microhabitats were associated with higher species richness and moth abundance; gardens near to the coast were associated with higher richness and moth abundance; and gardens in more urbanized locations were associated with lower species richness and moth abundance. The same trends were also found for species classified as increasing, declining and vulnerable under IUCN (World Conservation Union) criteria

Pollination and Predation Limit Fruit Set in a Shrub, Bourreria succulents (Boraginaceae), after Hurricanes on San Salvador Island, Bahamas 1

Hurricanes have been assumed to reduce the reproduction of plants, either directly by leaf stripping and stress or indirectly by reducing pollinators. I examined the pollination and fruit set of a common shrub, Bourreria succulenta , after hurricanes on San Salvador island, Bahamas. Contrary to the assumption of resource limitation, B. succulenta showed unusually prolific flowering after Hurricane Lili stripped leaves from most of the plants in October 1996. I predicted that the abundant flowering would saturate pollinators and that fruit set would be pollination-limited. Fruit set was strongly pollination-limited by 71 percent. Butterflies are probably the major pollinators and were present at the site, but they rarely visited B. succulenta flowers even though flowers were brimming with nectar. Nectarivorous birds (Bananaquits and Bahama Wbodstars) visit B. succulenta flowers, but their populations were decimated by Hurricane Lili and they rarely visited flowers during this time. Fruit set was also severely predation-limited; a moth caterpillar (Gelechiidae) was extremely abundant and ate buds, flowers, and fruits, causing a further 68 percent reduction in fruit set. Together, pollination limitation and predation limitation reduced fruit set to only 7 percent or less. Predation was also intense in 1999 after Hurricane Floyd and resulted in 11 percent fruit set or less. Whether or not hurricanes were the cause of limited pollinators or abundant predators, the resulting low fruit set could have population effects because hurricanes can provide opportunities for the recruitment of new plants. These results emphasize that understanding plant–animal interactions may be necessary for predicting the effects of hurricanes on plant reproductive success, which may affect subsequent recruitment. Species on small islands like San Salvador (150 km 2 ) with relatively few species may be especially vulnerable to environmental disturbances such as hurricanes.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75721/1/j.1744-7429.2001.tb00184.x.pd

Relative Stability of Core Groups in Pollination Networks in a Biodiversity Hotspot over Four Years

Plants and their pollinators form pollination networks integral to the evolution and persistence of species in communities. Previous studies suggest that pollination network structure remains nested while network composition is highly dynamic. However, little is known about temporal variation in the structure and function of plant-pollinator networks, especially in species-rich communities where the strength of pollinator competition is predicted to be high. Here we quantify temporal variation of pollination networks over four consecutive years in an alpine meadow in the Hengduan Mountains biodiversity hotspot in China. We found that ranked positions and idiosyncratic temperatures of both plants and pollinators were more conservative between consecutive years than in non-consecutive years. Although network compositions exhibited high turnover, generalized core groups – decomposed by a k-core algorithm – were much more stable than peripheral groups. Given the high rate of turnover observed, we suggest that identical plants and pollinators that persist for at least two successive years sustain pollination services at the community level. Our data do not support theoretical predictions of a high proportion of specialized links within species-rich communities. Plants were relatively specialized, exhibiting less variability in pollinator composition at pollinator functional group level than at the species level. Both specialized and generalized plants experienced narrow variation in functional pollinator groups. The dynamic nature of pollination networks in the alpine meadow demonstrates the potential for networks to mitigate the effects of fluctuations in species composition in a high biodiversity area

Do Queens of Bumblebee Species Differ In Their Choice Of Flower Colour Morphs Of Corydalis Cava (Fumariaceae)?

International audienceAbstractBumblebee queens require a continuous supply of flowering food plants from early spring for the successful development of annual colonies. Early in spring, Corydalis cava provides essential nectar and pollen resources and a choice of flower colour. In this paper, we examine flower colour choice (purple or white) in C. cava and verify the hypothesis that bumblebee queens differ in their choice of flower colour. A total of 10,615 observations of flower visits were made in spring 2011 and spring 2014 near Poznań, western Poland. Our results suggest that Bombus lucorum/cryptarum used purple flowers less, while Bombus terrestris used purple flowers more and Bombus hortorum showed no preference. Therefore, the colour morphs of C. cava are probably co-evolutionary adaptations to the development of another part of the insect community which has different colour preferences