Twelfth award of the Medal of the Seismological Society of America

The medal of the Seismological Society of America was established as Article XII of the Constitution and Bylaws in the 1975 annual election. The Medal recognizes outstanding contributions in Seismology and Earthquake Engineering. The twelfth award, in 1989, was made to Dr. Robert E. Wallace

Respiratory symptoms in people living with HIV and the effect of antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly altered the pattern of acute and chronic HIV-related disease. However, it is not clear what this means in terms of respiratory symptoms. We sought to investigate the association between HIV status and respiratory symptoms and how these have changed with the availability of ART. METHODS: We searched Cochrane, Medline and Embase databases for studies published between 1946 and August 2015 comparing the prevalence of respiratory symptoms in populations with and without HIV infection. We undertook random effects meta-analysis of the main symptoms reported. We studied heterogeneity and completed sensitivity analyses and funnel plots. RESULTS: From 5788 unique references identified, 24 papers provided relevant data: 18 documented the prevalence of cough and 11 examined the prevalence of breathlessness among other symptoms reported. Compared with the HIV negative, people living with HIV (PLWH) were more likely to have respiratory symptoms with pooled ORs for the prevalence of cough of 3.05 (95% CI 2.24 to 4.16) in resource-limited populations without access to ART; 2.18 (1.56 to 3.18) in resource-rich populations without access to ART and 1.11 (0.99 to 1.24) in resource-rich populations with access to ART. In resource-rich settings, although the availability of ART was associated with a reduction in the difference between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals, PLWH were more likely to report breathlessness, OR 1.39 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.73). CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory symptoms are more common in PLWH than controls. This association persists although at a reduced level in populations with access to ART

Dual community assembly processes in dryland biocrust communities

1. Biocrusts are critical components of drylands where they regulate a wide range of ecosystem functions, however, their response to the world‐wide phenomenon of shrub encroachment and to livestock grazing, the most extensive land use in drylands, is not well studied. Grazing by livestock and increases in shrub cover could influence biocrust communities directly via trampling or shading, or indirectly, by altering biotic interactions amongst biocrust taxa. The extent of these changes in biocrust cover, diversity and composition are poorly known. 2. We used linear models and structural equation modelling to examine the direct effects of grazing and shrubs on biocrust community composition and the indirect effects mediated by changes in species interactions. 3. Biocrust richness and cover increased with increasing shrub cover at the site level. This pattern occurred despite the negative response we found (lower cover and richness) under shrub patches versus open areas, which was consistent irrespective of the grazing level. Functional diversity and evenness were similar between shrubs and open at low grazing intensity, but at high grazing functional diversity was greater in the open. Competition between biocrust species was an important driver of their community assembly irrespective of shrub cover, grazing intensity or patch type. Structural equation models showed that the effects of grazing and shrub cover on functional evenness, functional diversity and richness were controlled by biotic interactions within the shrub microsites. In the open, however, these effects were either direct or mediated by changes in cover. 4. Biocrust cover, species richness and functional diversity increase with shrub cover at the site scale, despite the negative effects at the microsite level. We demonstrate here that drivers of community assembly differ markedly at small spatial scales. Though biocrust communities were directly driven by environmental filtering in the open, biotic interactions played a fundamental role in their assembly when growing beneath shrubs.Both authors acknowledge support from the Hermon Slade Foundation Grant no. HSF13/1. S.S. was supported by the Spanish Government under the Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2016-20604)

False-negative RT-PCR for COVID-19 and a diagnostic risk score: a retrospective cohort study among patients admitted to hospital

OBJECTIVE: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 and false-negative SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR), and develop and internally validate a diagnostic risk score to predict risk of COVID-19 (including RT-PCR-negative COVID-19) among medical admissions. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Two hospitals within an acute NHS Trust in London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: All patients admitted to medical wards between 2 March and 3 May 2020. OUTCOMES: Main outcomes were diagnosis of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR results, sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and mortality during hospital admission. For the diagnostic risk score, we report discrimination, calibration and diagnostic accuracy of the model and simplified risk score and internal validation. RESULTS: 4008 patients were admitted between 2 March and 3 May 2020. 1792 patients (44.8%) were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 1391 were SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive and 283 had only negative RT-PCRs. Compared with a clinical reference standard, sensitivity of RT-PCR in hospital patients was 83.1% (95% CI 81.2%-84.8%). Broadly, patients with false-negative RT-PCR COVID-19 and those confirmed by positive PCR had similar demographic and clinical characteristics but lower risk of intensive care unit admission and lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.27-0.61). A simple diagnostic risk score comprising of age, sex, ethnicity, cough, fever or shortness of breath, National Early Warning Score 2, C reactive protein and chest radiograph appearance had moderate discrimination (area under the receiver-operator curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.85), good calibration and was internally validated. CONCLUSION: RT-PCR-negative COVID-19 is common and is associated with lower mortality despite similar presentation. Diagnostic risk scores could potentially help triage patients requiring admission but need external validation

Expert consensus document: Semantics in active surveillance for men with localized prostate cancer — results of a modified Delphi consensus procedure

Active surveillance (AS) is broadly described as a management option for men with low-risk prostate cancer, but semantic heterogeneity exists in both the literature and in guidelines. To address this issue, a panel of leading prostate cancer specialists in the field of AS participated in a consensus-forming project using a modified Delphi method to reach international consensus on definitions of terms related to this management option. An iterative three-round sequence of online questionnaires designed to address 61 individual items was completed by each panel member. Consensus was considered to be reached if ≥70% of the experts agreed on a definition. To facilitate a common understanding among all experts involved and resolve potential ambiguities, a face-to-face consensus meeting was held between Delphi survey rounds two and three. Convenience sampling was used to construct the panel of experts. In total, 12 experts from Australia, France, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, the UK, Canada and the USA participated. By the end of the Delphi process, formal consensus was achieved for 100% (n = 61) of the terms and a glossary was then developed. Agreement between international experts has been reached on relevant terms and subsequent definitions regarding AS for patients with localized prostate cancer. This standard terminology could support multidisciplinary communication, reduce the extent of variations in clinical practice and optimize clinical decision making

Semantics in active surveillance for men with localized prostate cancer - results of a modified Delphi consensus procedure

Active surveillance (AS) is broadly described as a management option for men with low-risk prostate cancer, but semantic heterogeneity exists in both the literature and in guidelines. To address this issue, a panel of leading prostate cancer specialists in the field of AS participated in a consensus-forming project using a modified Delphi method to reach international consensus on definitions of terms related to this management option. An iterative three-round sequence of online questionnaires designed to address 61 individual items was completed by each panel member. Consensus was considered to be reached if >= 70% of the experts agreed on a definition. To facilitate a common understanding among all experts involved and resolve potential ambiguities, a face-to-face consensus meeting was held between Delphi survey rounds two and three. Convenience sampling was used to construct the panel of experts. In total, 12 experts from Australia, France, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, the UK, Canada and the USA participated. By the end of the Delphi process, formal consensus was achieved for 100% (n = 61) of the terms and a glossary was then developed. Agreement between international experts has been reached on relevant terms and subsequent definitions regarding AS for patients with localized prostate cancer. This standard terminology could support multidisciplinary communication, reduce the extent of variations in clinical practice and optimize clinical decision making.Peer reviewe

Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects

Genome-Wide Transcript Profiling of Endosperm without Paternal Contribution Identifies Parent-of-Origin–Dependent Regulation of AGAMOUS-LIKE36

Seed development in angiosperms is dependent on the interplay among different transcriptional programs operating in the embryo, the endosperm, and the maternally-derived seed coat. In angiosperms, the embryo and the endosperm are products of double fertilization during which the two pollen sperm cells fuse with the egg cell and the central cell of the female gametophyte. In Arabidopsis, analyses of mutants in the cell-cycle regulator CYCLIN DEPENDENT KINASE A;1 (CKDA;1) have revealed the importance of a paternal genome for the effective development of the endosperm and ultimately the seed. Here we have exploited cdka;1 fertilization as a novel tool for the identification of seed regulators and factors involved in parent-of-origin–specific regulation during seed development. We have generated genome-wide transcription profiles of cdka;1 fertilized seeds and identified approximately 600 genes that are downregulated in the absence of a paternal genome. Among those, AGAMOUS-LIKE (AGL) genes encoding Type-I MADS-box transcription factors were significantly overrepresented. Here, AGL36 was chosen for an in-depth study and shown to be imprinted. We demonstrate that AGL36 parent-of-origin–dependent expression is controlled by the activity of METHYLTRANSFERASE1 (MET1) maintenance DNA methyltransferase and DEMETER (DME) DNA glycosylase. Interestingly, our data also show that the active maternal allele of AGL36 is regulated throughout endosperm development by components of the FIS Polycomb Repressive Complex 2 (PRC2), revealing a new type of dual epigenetic regulation in seeds