The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers – not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future

MA.KETODAY COUNT: A MUTUAL SUPPORT GROUP FOR THE DYING

The purpose of· this paper is to discuss the aspects of a local chapter of 1Vlake Today Count. MTCis a mutual support group for persons with terminal illnesses. Organized in 1974, it is part afwhat tome have' called the tlhappy death movement." This movement seeks to make death more humane and less techtlOlogical. The paper addresses such'iuues:;;as reasons of joiningJ the nature of membership, and the gains for persons who join

AN UNEASY ALLIANCE: DOCTORS OF GRIEF AND DOCTORS OF DIVINITY

This article explores the role relationship of olergy and funeral directors from the perspective of the funeral director. Much of the conflict can be explained from a socio-historical perspective as the status of the funeral director has been enhanced and that of the clergy has become more tenuous. Funeral directors are moving boldly into the area of itgrief counseling" which previously was the almost exclusive domain of the clergy. For their part, funeral directors see clergy involvement in funeral purchases as a particularly irritating role infringement. In a more positive vein, many funeral directors and clergy are engaging in open communication in a way that promotes "good grief" for the bereaved

Researching Student Community Service: An Opportunity to Promote Reflection?

In recent years there has been a growing interest in student community service. It is suggested that the students of the 1980\u27s and 90\u27s are returning to an ethic of community service. Organizations have developed to promote service from both the student and the academic perspectives. The Campus Outreach Opportunity League (COOL) is a student movement promoting community service. Campus Compact represents the academic administration interest in promoting student community service with presidents of institutions forming the membership in the organization. A third organization, the National Society of Internships and Experiential Education (NSIEE), includes student community service as a form of the more traditional field based learning/teaching strategies. Service-learning provides a mechanism for integrating community service within the overall mission of the academy. How do these trends developments manifest themselves on the local level? What interests do students bring and gain from community service? Is there a good fit between the structuring of student community service by academic planners and the interests that students bring to the service setting? This research will explore three motivational contexts in which students actively engage in community service. The three contexts are identified as altruistic, academic credit and tuition benefits

NMME Monthly Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

No abstract availabl

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast perio

Toxicity and recovery in the pregnant mouse after gestational exposure to the cyanobacterial toxin, cylindrospermopsin

Cylindrospermopsin (CYN) is a tricyclic alkaloid toxin produced by fresh water cyanobacterial species worldwide. CYN has been responsible for both livestock and human poisoning after oral exposure. This study investigated the toxicity of CYN to pregnant mice exposed during different segments of gestation. The course of recovery and individual responses to the toxin were evaluated. Adverse effects of CYN were monitored up to 7 weeks post-dosing by clinical examination, histopathology, biochemistry and gene expression. Exposure on gestational days (GD) 8–12 induced significantly more lethality than GD13–17 exposure. Periorbital, gastrointestinal and distal tail hemorrhages were seen in both groups. Serum markers indicative of hepatic injury (alanine amino transferase, aspartate amino transferase and sorbitol dehydrogenase)were increased in both groups; markers of renal dysfunction (blood urea nitrogen and creatinine) were elevated in the GD8–12 animals. Histopathology was observed in the liver (centrilobular necrosis) and kidney (interstitial inflammation) in groups exhibiting abnormal serum markers. The expression profiles of genes involved in ribosomal biogenesis, xenobiotic and lipid metabolism, inflammatory response and oxidative stress were altered 24 h after the final dose. One week after dosing, gross, histological and serum parameters had returned to normal, although increased liver/body weight ratio and one instance of gastrointestinal bleeding was found in the GD13–17 group. Gene expression changes persisted up to 2 weeks post-dosing and returned to normal by 4 weeks. Responses of individual animals to CYN exposure indicated highly significant inter-animal variability within the treated groups