Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

International audienceDaily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

On autonomic platform-as-a-service: characterisation and conceptual model

In this position paper, we envision a Platform-as-a-Service conceptual and architectural solution for large-scale and data intensive applications. Our architectural approach is based on autonomic principles, therefore, its ultimate goal is to reduce human intervention, the cost, and the perceived complexity by enabling the autonomic platform to manage such applications itself in accordance with highlevel policies. Such policies allow the platform to (i) interpret the application specifications; (ii) to map the specifications onto the target computing infrastructure, so that the applications are executed and their Quality of Service (QoS), as specified in their SLA, enforced; and, most importantly, (iii) to adapt automatically such previously established mappings when unexpected behaviours violate the expected. Such adaptations may involve modifications in the arrangement of the computational infrastructure, i.e. by re-designing a different communication network topology that dictates how computational resources interact, or even the live-migration to a different computational infrastructure. The ultimate goal of these challenges is to (de)provision computational machines, storage and networking links and their required topologies in order to supply for the application the virtualised infrastructure that better meets the SLAs. Generic architectural blueprints and principles have been provided for designing and implementing an autonomic computing system.We revisit them in order to provide a customised and specific viewfor PaaS platforms and integrate emerging paradigms such as DevOps for automate deployments, Monitoring as a Service for accurate and large-scale monitoring, or well-known formalisms such as Petri Nets for building performance models

Biplots for compositional data derived from generalized joint diagonalization methods

Biplots constructed from principal components of a compositional data set are an established means to explore its features. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is also used to transform a set of spatial variables into spatially decorrelated factors. However, because no spatial structures are accounted for in the transformation the application of PCA is limited. In geostatistics and blind source separation a variety of different matrix diagonalization methods have been developed with the aim to provide spatially or temporally decorrelated factors. Just as PCA, many of these transformations are linear and so lend themselves to the construction of biplots. In this contribution we consider such biplots for a number of methods (MAF, UWEDGE and RJD transformations) and discuss how and if they can contribute to our understanding of relationships between the components of regionalized compositions. A comparison of the biplots with the PCA biplot commonly used in compositional data analysis for the case of data from the Northern Irish geochemical survey shows that the biplots from MAF and UWEDGE are comparable as are those from PCA and RJD. The biplots emphasize different aspects of the regionalized composition: for MAF and UWEDGE the focus is the spatial continuity, while for PCA and RJD it is variance explained. The results indicate that PCA and MAF combined provide adequate and complementary means for exploratory statistical analysis

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Process-based forward numerical ecological modeling for carbonate sedimentary basins

Nowadays, numerical modeling is a common tool used in the study of sedimentary basins, since it allows to quantify the processes simulated and to determine interactions among them. One of such programs is SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, a 3D forward-model process-based code to simulate the sedimentation in a marine basin at a geological time scale. It models the fluid flow, siliciclastic transport and sedimentation, and carbonate production. In this article, we present the last improvements in the carbonate production model, in particular about the usage of Generalized Lotka-Volterra equations that include logistic growth and interaction among species. Logistic growth is constrained by environmental parameters such as water depth, energy of the medium, and depositional profile. The environmental parameters are converted to factors and combined into one single environmental value to model the evolution of species. The interaction among species is quantified using the community matrix that captures the beneficial or detrimental effects of the presence of each species on the other. A theoretical example of a carbonate ramp is computed to show the interaction among carbonate and siliciclastic sediment, the effect of environmental parameters to the modeled species associations, and the interaction among these species associations. The distribution of the modeled species associations in the theoretical example presented is compared with the carbonate Oligocene-Miocene Asmari Formation in Iran and the Miocene Ragusa Platform in Italy

Construction of data streams applications from functional, non-functional and resource requirements for electric vehicle aggregators. the COSMOS vision

COSMOS, Computer Science for Complex System Modeling, is a research team that has the mission of bridging the gap between formal methods and real problems. The goal is twofold: (1) a better management of the growing complexity of current systems; (2) a high quality of the implementation reducing the time to market. The COSMOS vision is to prove this approach in non-trivial industrial problems leveraging technologies such as software engineering, cloud computing, or workflows. In particular, we are interested in the technological challenges arising from the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry, around the EV-charging and control IT infrastructure

A hierarchical one-to-one mapping solution for semantic interoperability

The importance of interoperability among computer systems has been progressively increasing over the last years. The tendency of current cataloguing systems is to interchange metadata in XML according to the specific standard required by each user on demand. According to the research literature, it seems that there exist two main approaches in order to tackle this problem: solutions that are based on the use of ontologies and solutions that are based on the creation of specific crosswalks for one-to-one mapping. This paper proposes a hierarchical one-to-one mapping solution for improving semantic interoperability

Improving processing by adaption to conditional geostatistical simulation of block compositions

Exploitation of an ore deposit can be optimized by adapting the beneficiation processes to the properties of individual ore blocks. This can involve switching in and out certain treatment steps, or setting their controlling parameters. Optimizing this set of decisions requires the full conditional distribution of all relevant physical parameters and chemical attributes of the feed, including concentration of value elements and abundance of penalty elements. As a first step towards adaptive processing, the mapping of adaptive decisions is explored based on the composition, in value and penalty elements, of the selective mining units. Conditional distributions at block support are derived from cokriging and geostatistical simulation of log-ratios. A one-to-one log-ratio transformation is applied to the data, followed by modelling via classical multivariate geostatistical tools, and subsequent back-transforming of predictions and simulations. Back-transformed point-support simulations can then be averaged to obtain block averages that are fed into the process chain model. The approach is illustrated with a \u27toy\u27 example where a four-component system (a value element, two penalty elements, and some liberable material) is beneficiated through a chain of technical processes. The results show that a gain function based on full distributions outperforms the more traditional approach of using unbiased estimates

Towards geostatistical learning for the geosciences: A case study in improving the spatial awareness of spectral clustering

The particularities of geosystems and geoscience data must be understood before any development or implementation of statistical learning algorithms. Without such knowledge, the predictions and inferences may not be accurate and physically consistent. Accuracy, transparency and interpretability, credibility, and physical realism are minimum criteria for statistical learning algorithms when applied to the geosciences. This study briefly reviews several characteristics of geoscience data and challenges for novel statistical learning algorithms. A novel spatial spectral clustering approach is introduced to illustrate how statistical learners can be adapted for modelling geoscience data. The spatial awareness and physical realism of the spectral clustering are improved by utilising a dissimilarity matrix based on nonparametric higher-order spatial statistics. The proposed model-free technique can identify meaningful spatial clusters (i.e. meaningful geographical subregions) from multivariate spatial data at different scales without the need to define a model of co-dependence. Several mixed (e.g. continuous and categorical) variables can be used as inputs to the proposed clustering technique. The proposed technique is illustrated using synthetic and real mining datasets. The results of the case studies confirm the usefulness of the proposed method for modelling spatial data