Measuring Credit Spread Risk

It is widely known that the small but looming possibility of defaultrenders the expected return distribution for financial productscontaining credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In thispaper we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating theadditional risk faced by changes in swap spreads. Using data from theUS, UK, Germany, and Japan, we find that the risk faced from largespread widenings and tightenings is grossly underestimated. Estimationof swap spread risk is dramatically improved when the severity of thefat tails is measured and incorporated into current estimationtechniques.value-at-risk;Market Risk;backtesting;extreme Value theory;parametric distributions

Patterns of gene expression in schistosomes: localization by whole mount in situ hybridization

rom the identification of genes to the characterization of their functions and interactions. Developmental biologists have long used whole mount in situ hybridization (WISH) to determine gene expression patterns, as a vital tool for formulating and testing hypotheses about function. This paper describes the application of WISH to the study of gene expression in larval and adult schistosomes. Fixed worms were permeablized by proteinase K treatment for hybridization with digoxygenin-labelled RNA probes, with binding being detected by alkaline phosphatase-coupled anti-digoxygenin antibodies, and BM Purple substrate. Discrete staining patterns for the transcripts of the molecules Sm29, cathepsin L, antigen 10.3 and chorion were observed in the tegument cell bodies, gut epithelium, oesophageal gland and vitelline lobules, respectively, of adult worms. Transcripts of the molecules SGTP4, GP18-22 and cathepsin L were localized to tegument cell bodies and embryonic gut, respectively, of lung schistosomula. We also showed that Fast Red TR fluorescent substrate can refine the pattern of localization permitting use of confocal microscopy. We believe that method of WISH will find broad application, in synergy with other emerging post-genomic techniques, such as RNA interference, to studies focused at increasing our molecular understanding of schistosomes

Measuring Credit Spread Risk

It is widely known that the small but looming possibility of default renders the expected return distribution for financial products containing credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In this paper we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating the additional risk faced by changes in swap spreads. Using data from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan, we find that the risk faced from large spread widenings and tightenings is grossly underestimated. Estimation of swap spread risk is dramatically improved when the severity of the fat tails is measured and incorporated into current estimation techniques

Geological aspects of Banda Sea ecosystems and how they shape the oceanographical profile

The Banda Sea is a collage of young oceanic basins and fragmented Australian continental crust located at the heart of the Australia-SE Asia collision zone where Australian and Asian biogeographic regions converge. The formation of the sea was governed by the southeastward rollback of the Banda Slab since c. 16 Ma, which in its wake opened new oceanic basins and extended and fragmented Australian crust. These Australian crustal fragments are today either stranded within the Banda Sea where they form the prominent submarine 'Banda Ridges', or now reside as thrust-sheets on the NW Australian shelf after being transported all the way to the southern Banda Arc. The deepest part of the Banda Sea, the 7.2 km Weber Deep, was formed by extreme lithospheric extension that occured in the latter stages of Banda Slab rollback. This extension was accommodated by the vast low-angle 'Banda Detachment', which operated above the subducted fringes of the Australian continental margin

A Delphi study to strengthen research methods training in undergraduate psychology programmes

Psychology programmes often emphasise inferential statistical tests over a solid understanding of data and research design. This imbalance may leave graduates under-equipped to effectively interpret research and employ data to answer questions. We conducted a two-round modified-Delphi to identify the research methods skills that the UK psychology community deems essential for undergraduates to learn. Participants included 103 research methods instructors, academics, students, and non-academic psychologists. Of 78 items included in the consensus process, 34 reached consensus. We coupled these results with a qualitative analysis of 707 open-ended text responses to develop nine recommendations for organisations that accredit undergraduate psychology programmes—such as the British Psychological Society (BPS). We recommend that accreditation standards emphasise (1) dataskills, (2) research design, (3) descriptive statistics, (4) critical analysis, (5) qualitative methods, and (6) both parameter estimation and significance testing; as well as (7) give precedence to foundational skills, (8) promote transferable skills, and (9) create space in curricula to enable these recommendations. Our data and findings can inform modernised accreditation standards to include clearly-defined, assessable, and widely-encouraged skills that foster a competent graduate body for the contemporary world

Geological aspects of Banda Sea ecosystems and how they shape the oceanographical profile

The Banda Sea is a collage of young oceanic basins and fragmented Australian continental crust located at the heart of the Australia–SE Asia collision zone where Australian and Asian biogeographic regions converge. The formation of the sea was governed by the southeastward rollback of the Banda Slab since c. 16 Ma, which in its wake opened new oceanic basins and extended and fragmented Australian crust. These Australian crustal fragments are today either stranded within the Banda Sea where they form the prominent submarine 'Banda Ridges', or now reside as thrust-sheets on the NW Australian shelf after being transported all the way to the southern Banda Arc. The deepest part of the Banda Sea, the 7.2 km Weber Deep, was formed by extreme lithospheric extension that occured in the latter stages of Banda Slab rollback. This extension was accommodated by the vast low-angle 'Banda Detachment', which operated above the subducted fringes of the Australian continental margin

Temperate Pasture and Sheep Performance Under Radiata Pine and In Open Pasture

Forage production from years 4 to 6 of an agroforestry system at 400-600 trees per ha and pasture alone were compared for a temperate sub-humid environment. Forage production was best for lucerne pasture followed by phalaris/clover and cocksfoot/clover, and least for ryegrass/clover and the ryegrass only pastures. Total pasture production in the agroforest relative to the open pasture was from 10% more for phalaris to 20% less for lucerne. Sheep carrying capacity over all pastures was 14.6 sheep/ha in the open and 11.8 sheep/ha in the agroforest and varied by ±15% according to the pasture types

Earthquakes and tsunamis caused by low-angle normal faulting in the Banda Sea, Indonesia

As the world's largest archipelagic country in Earth's most active tectonic region, Indonesia faces a substantial earthquake and tsunami threat. Understanding this threat is a challenge because of the complex tectonic environment, the paucity of observed data and the limited historical record. Here we combine information from recent studies of the geology of Indonesia's Banda Sea with Global Positioning System observations of crustal motion and an analysis of historical large earthquakes and tsunamis there. We show that past destructive earthquakes were not caused by the supposed megathrust of the Banda outer arc as previously thought but are due to a vast submarine normal fault system recently discovered along the Banda inner arc. Instead of being generated by coseismic seafloor displacement, we find the tsunamis were more likely caused by earthquake-triggered submarine slumping along the fault's massive scarp, the Weber Deep. This would make the Banda detachment representative not only as a modern analogue for terranes hyper-extended by slab rollback but also for the generation of earthquakes and tsunamis by a submarine extensional fault system. Our findings suggest that low-angle normal faults in the Banda Sea generate large earthquakes, which in turn can generate tsunamis due to earthquake-triggered slumping. Low-angle normal faults in the Banda Sea have caused large earthquakes that indirectly generated tsunamis due to earthquake-triggered submarine slumping, according to an analysis of historical earthquake and tsunami events and GPS observations.Peer reviewe

Psychologically Literate by Design: Four Case Study Undergraduate Modules that Centre Psychological Literacy

Psychological literacy is an approach to teaching which encourages students to consider their subject knowledge in ‘real world’ applied contexts (i.e. in student’s lives beyond university), which may be professional, personal, or societal. ‘Real world’ here refers to the application of psychological knowledge and skills to students’ personal, student-role, work, and community contexts. Psychological literacy is typically integrated into psychology programmes through classroom activities, extra-curricular activities, and opportunities outside of the core curriculum. However, for the goals of psychological literacy to be fully realised, it should be intentionally and thoughtfully embedded at the module and programme level. One way to achieve this is to develop and evaluate modules (i.e. standalone units or courses) that embed psychological literacy explicitly by design. In this paper, we provide overviews, brief evaluations, and reflections on four undergraduate modules within a UK Psychology (BSc) degree that integrate the principles of psychological literacy. These include a first-year compulsory module (‘Biological Approaches to Human and Non-Human Behaviour’), a second-year compulsory module (‘Neuroscience’) and two final-year elective optional modules (‘Face Perception’ and ‘Feminist Social Psychology’). We offer reflections on the process of designing these modules as educators who are interested in developing students’ psychological literacy and also provide student evaluations