Strengthening Population Inference in Herpetofaunal Studies by Addressing Detection Probability

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)In conservation biology and population dynamic studies, accounting for the effect of imperfect detection of animals in the wild is crucial for correct inference of demographic parameters. However, articles published in South American herpetological journals still report estimates without considering how detection can influence estimates of vital rates, assuming that detection probability is perfect (i.e., 100%) and constant. Using data from a population of the torrent frog, Hylodes asper, we calculate return rates and compare them with survival probability estimates adjusted for detection probability to highlight the discrepancies between the two metrics. Then, using power analysis, we also explore how survival is underestimated, considering different scenarios and sampling efforts, given low detectability. Finally, we provide information on the optimal number of surveys to achieve a reasonable precision, assuming a fixed number of individuals initially captured for a series of parameter values. Ignoring potential bias of uncorrected estimates may lead to weak inference and erroneous decisions for management and conservation. We recommend that researchers consider detection probability in their studies to improve the accuracy of population estimates.9118Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)CNPq [140684/20093]CAPES [2296/110

Strengthening population inference in herpetofaunal studies by addressing detection probability

In conservation biology and population dynamic studies, accounting for the effect of imperfect detection of animals in the wild is crucial for correct inference of demographic parameters. However, articles published in South American herpetological journals still report estimates without considering how detection can influence estimates of vital rates, assuming that detection probability is perfect (i.e., 100%) and constant. Using data from a population of the torrent frog, Hylodes asper, we calculate return rates and compare them with survival probability estimates adjusted for detection probability to highlight the discrepancies between the two metrics. Then, using power analysis, we also explore how survival is underestimated, considering different scenarios and sampling efforts, given low detectability. Finally, we provide information on the optimal number of surveys to achieve a reasonable precision, assuming a fixed number of individuals initially captured for a series of parameter values. Ignoring potential bias of uncorrected estimates may lead to weak inference and erroneous decisions for management and conservation. We recommend that researchers consider detection probability in their studies to improve the accuracy of population estimates9118CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO - CNPQCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR - CAPES140684/200932296/11

Population Dynamics of the Critically Endangered Golden Lancehead Pitviper, Bothrops insularis: Stability or Decline?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Little is known about vital rates of snakes generally because of the difficulty in collecting data. Here we used a robust design mark-recapture model to estimate survival, behavioral effects on capture probability, temporary emigration, abundance and test the hypothesis of population decline in the golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis, an endemic and critically endangered species from southeastern Brazil. We collected data at irregular intervals over ten occasions from 2002 to 2010. Survival was slightly higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Temporal emigration was high, indicating the importance of accounting for this parameter both in the sampling design and modeling. No behavioral effects were detected on capture probability. We detected an average annual population decrease (lambda = 0.93, CI = 0.47- 1.38) during the study period, but estimates included high uncertainty, and caution in interpretation is needed. We discuss the potential effects of the illegal removal of individuals and the implications of the vital rates obtained for the future persistence and conservation of this endemic, endangered species.94Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Fundacao Grupo Boticario de Protecao a NaturezaConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Fundo de Auxilio aos Docentes e Alunos (FADA-UNIFESP)Instituto Nacional de Cienca e Tecnologia em Toxinas (INCTTOX)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES

Characterization of 12 microsatellite loci in the waterfall damselfly (Paraphlebia zoe) for use in population genetic applications

The waterfall damselfly, Paraphlebia zoe, is distributed in cloud forest areas in the Mexican states of Veracruz, Hidalgo, and San Luis Potosi. We developed twelve microsatellite loci for P. zoe from representative samples from the state of Veracruz. Microsatellites were tested for polymorphism on a panel of 24 individuals. The number of alleles ranged from 3 to 11, observed heterozygosity from 0.083 to 0.875, and the fixation index from 0.021 to 0.563. These loci are the first to be described and characterized for P. zoe and should prove useful for population genetics in support of the conservation of this vulnerable species. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011