Linking resilience and robustness and uncovering their trade-offs in coupled infrastructure systems

Robustness and resilience are concepts in systems thinking that have grown in importance and popularity. For many complex social-ecological systems, however, robustness and resilience are difficult to quantify and the connections and trade-offs between them difficult to study. Most studies have either focused on qualitative approaches to discuss their connections or considered only one of them under particular classes of disturbances. In this study, we present an analytical framework to address the linkage between robustness and resilience more systematically. Our analysis is based on a stylized dynamical model that operationalizes a widely used conceptual framework for social-ecological systems. The model enables us to rigorously delineate the boundaries of conditions under which the coupled system can be sustained in a long run, define robustness and resilience related to these boundaries, and consequently investigate their connections. The results reveal the trade-offs between robustness and resilience. They also show how the nature of such trade-offs varies with the choice of certain policies (e.g., taxation and investment in public infrastructure), internal stresses, and uncertainty in social-ecological settings.</p

The effect of spatial configuration of habitat capacity on β diversity

Patterns of β diversity are commonly used to infer underlying ecological processes. In this study, we examined the effect of spatial configuration of habitat capacity on different metrics of β diversity, i.e., β diversity measured as turnover and as variation. For β diversity as turnover, a monotonic species spatial turnover pattern is typically considered as a benchmark for species distributions driven only by dispersal process. Deviations from a monotonic curve are attributed to local environmental filtering (i.e., the same environmental factors affecting different species differently). However, we found non-monotonicity in species spatial turnover in models without environmental filtering effect. This non-monotonicity was caused by variation in α diversity, introduced by spatial configuration of habitat capacity. After applying a recent null-model approach—designed to tease out the effect of variation in α diversity—species spatial turnover remained non-monotonic. This non-monotonicity makes it problematic to use species spatial turnover to infer the underlying processes for species distribution, i.e., whether it is driven by environmental filtering or dispersal processes. Spatial configuration of habitat capacity also influences landscape connectivity. Small-habitat capacity sites may constrain movements of organisms (i.e., dispersal) between sites supporting high capacity habitats. We showed that in a landscape where small-habitat capacity sites were located in positions important for dispersal (e.g., in the center as opposed to on the edge of a landscape) has a higher spatial variation of species composition, hence, higher β diversity. Ecologists who use different measures of β diversity should be aware of these effects introduced by spatial configuration of habitat capacity

Effects of branching spatial structure and life history on the asymptotic growth rate of a population

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Ecology 3 (2010): 137-152, doi:10.1007/s12080-009-0058-0.The dendritic structure of a river network creates directional dispersal and a hierarchical arrangement of habitats. These two features have important consequences for the ecological dynamics of species living within the network.We apply matrix population models to a stage-structured population in a network of habitat patches connected in a dendritic arrangement. By considering a range of life histories and dispersal patterns, both constant in time and seasonal, we illustrate how spatial structure, directional dispersal, survival, and reproduction interact to determine population growth rate and distribution. We investigate the sensitivity of the asymptotic growth rate to the demographic parameters of the model, the system size, and the connections between the patches. Although some general patterns emerge, we find that a species’ mode of reproduction and dispersal are quite important in its response to changes in its life history parameters or in the spatial structure. The framework we use here can be customized to incorporate a wide range of demographic and dispersal scenarios.Funding for this work came from the James S. McDonnell Foundation (EEG, HJL, WFF). MGN was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (CMG-0530830, OCE-0326734, ATM-0428122)

Asymmetry in Species Regional Dispersal Ability and the Neutral Theory

The neutral assumption that individuals of either the same or different species share exactly the same birth, death, migration, and speciation probabilities is fundamental yet controversial to the neutral theory. Several theoretical studies have demonstrated that a slight difference in species per capita birth or death rates can have a profound consequence on species coexistence and community structure. Whether asymmetry in migration, a vital demographic parameter in the neutral model, plays an important role in community assembly still remains unknown. In this paper, we relaxed the ecological equivalence assumption of the neutral model by introducing differences into species regional dispersal ability. We investigated the effect of asymmetric dispersal on the neutral local community structure. We found that per capita asymmetric dispersal among species could reduce species richness of the local community and result in deviations of species abundance distributions from those predicted by the neutral model. But the effect was moderate compared with that of asymmetries in birth or death rates, unless very large asymmetries in dispersal were assumed. A large difference in species dispersal ability, if there is, can overwhelm the role of random drift and make local community dynamics deterministic. In this case, species with higher regional dispersal abilities tended to dominate in the local community. However, the species abundance distribution of the local community under asymmetric dispersal could be well fitted by the neutral model, but the neutral model generally underestimated the fundamental biodiversity number but overestimated the migration rate in such communities

Unveiling relationships between crime and property in England and Wales via density scale-adjusted metrics and network tools

Scale-adjusted metrics (SAMs) are a significant achievement of the urban scaling hypothesis. SAMs remove the inherent biases of per capita measures computed in the absence of isometric allometries. However, this approach is limited to urban areas, while a large portion of the world’s population still lives outside cities and rural areas dominate land use worldwide. Here, we extend the concept of SAMs to population density scale-adjusted metrics (DSAMs) to reveal relationships among different types of crime and property metrics. Our approach allows all human environments to be considered, avoids problems in the definition of urban areas, and accounts for the heterogeneity of population distributions within urban regions. By combining DSAMs, cross-correlation, and complex network analysis, we find that crime and property types have intricate and hierarchically organized relationships leading to some striking conclusions. Drugs and burglary had uncorrelated DSAMs and, to the extent property transaction values are indicators of affluence, twelve out of fourteen crime metrics showed no evidence of specifically targeting affluence. Burglary and robbery were the most connected in our network analysis and the modular structures suggest an alternative to "zero-tolerance" policies by unveiling the crime and/or property types most likely to affect each other

A niche remedy for the dynamical problems of neutral theory

We demonstrate how niche theory and Hubbell's original formulation of neutral theory can be blended together into a general framework modeling the combined effects of selection, drift, speciation, and dispersal on community dynamics. This framework connects many seemingly unrelated ecological population models, and allows for quantitative predictions to be made about the impact of niche stabilizing and destabilizing forces on population extinction times and abundance distributions. In particular, the existence of niche stabilizing forces in our blended framework can simultaneously resolve two major problems with the dynamics of neutral theory, namely predictions of species lifetimes that are too short and species ages that are too long.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figures, Accepted to Theoretical Ecolog

Catchment-scale biogeography of riverine bacterioplankton

Lotic ecosystems such as rivers and streams are unique in that they represent a continuum of both space and time during the transition from headwaters to the river mouth. As microbes have very different controls over their ecology, distribution and dispersion compared with macrobiota, we wished to explore biogeographical patterns within a river catchment and uncover the major drivers structuring bacterioplankton communities. Water samples collected across the River Thames Basin, UK, covering the transition from headwater tributaries to the lower reaches of the main river channel were characterised using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing. This approach revealed an ecological succession in the bacterial community composition along the river continuum, moving from a community dominated by Bacteroidetes in the headwaters to Actinobacteria-dominated downstream. Location of the sampling point in the river network (measured as the cumulative water channel distance upstream) was found to be the most predictive spatial feature; inferring that ecological processes pertaining to temporal community succession are of prime importance in driving the assemblages of riverine bacterioplankton communities. A decrease in bacterial activity rates and an increase in the abundance of low nucleic acid bacteria relative to high nucleic acid bacteria were found to correspond with these downstream changes in community structure, suggesting corresponding functional changes. Our findings show that bacterial communities across the Thames basin exhibit an ecological succession along the river continuum, and that this is primarily driven by water residence time rather than the physiochemical status of the river

Universal Artifacts Affect the Branching of Phylogenetic Trees, Not Universal Scaling Laws

The superficial resemblance of phylogenetic trees to other branching structures allows searching for macroevolutionary patterns. However, such trees are just statistical inferences of particular historical events. Recent meta-analyses report finding regularities in the branching pattern of phylogenetic trees. But is this supported by evidence, or are such regularities just methodological artifacts? If so, is there any signal in a phylogeny?In order to evaluate the impact of polytomies and imbalance on tree shape, the distribution of all binary and polytomic trees of up to 7 taxa was assessed in tree-shape space. The relationship between the proportion of outgroups and the amount of imbalance introduced with them was assessed applying four different tree-building methods to 100 combinations from a set of 10 ingroup and 9 outgroup species, and performing covariance analyses. The relevance of this analysis was explored taking 61 published phylogenies, based on nucleic acid sequences and involving various taxa, taxonomic levels, and tree-building methods.All methods of phylogenetic inference are quite sensitive to the artifacts introduced by outgroups. However, published phylogenies appear to be subject to a rather effective, albeit rather intuitive control against such artifacts. The data and methods used to build phylogenetic trees are varied, so any meta-analysis is subject to pitfalls due to their uneven intrinsic merits, which translate into artifacts in tree shape. The binary branching pattern is an imposition of methods, and seldom reflects true relationships in intraspecific analyses, yielding artifactual polytomies in short trees. Above the species level, the departure of real trees from simplistic random models is caused at least by two natural factors--uneven speciation and extinction rates; and artifacts such as choice of taxa included in the analysis, and imbalance introduced by outgroups and basal paraphyletic taxa. This artifactual imbalance accounts for tree shape convergence of large trees.There is no evidence for any universal scaling in the tree of life. Instead, there is a need for improved methods of tree analysis that can be used to discriminate the noise due to outgroups from the phylogenetic signal within the taxon of interest, and to evaluate realistic models of evolution, correcting the retrospective perspective and explicitly recognizing extinction as a driving force. Artifacts are pervasive, and can only be overcome through understanding the structure and biological meaning of phylogenetic trees. Catalan Abstract in Translation S1

Hydrologic Variability Affects Invertebrate Grazing on Phototrophic Biofilms in Stream Microcosms

The temporal variability of streamflow is known to be a key feature structuring and controlling fluvial ecological communities and ecosystem processes. Although alterations of streamflow regime due to habitat fragmentation or other anthropogenic factors are ubiquitous, a quantitative understanding of their implications on ecosystem structure and function is far from complete. Here, by experimenting with two contrasting flow regimes in stream microcosms, we provide a novel mechanistic explanation for how fluctuating flow regimes may affect grazing of phototrophic biofilms (i.e., periphyton) by an invertebrate species (Ecdyonurus sp.). In both flow regimes light availability was manipulated as a control on autotroph biofilm productivity and grazer activity, thereby allowing the test of flow regime effects across various ratios of biofilm biomass to grazing activity. Average grazing rates were significantly enhanced under variable flow conditions and this effect was highest at intermediate light availability. Our results suggest that stochastic flow regimes, characterised by suitable fluctuations and temporal persistence, may offer increased windows of opportunity for grazing under favourable shear stress conditions. This bears important implications for the development of comprehensive schemes for water resources management and for the understanding of trophic carbon transfer in stream food webs

On neutral metacommunity patterns of river basins at different scales of aggregation

Neutral metacommunity models for spatial biodiversity patterns are implemented on river networks acting as ecological corridors at different resolution. Coarse-graining elevation fields (under the constraint of preserving the basin mean elevation) produce a set of reconfigured drainage networks. The hydrologic assumption made implies uniform runoff production such that each link has the same habitat capacity. Despite the universal scaling properties shown by river basins regardless of size, climate, vegetation, or exposed lithology, we find that species richness at local and regional scales exhibits resolution-dependent behavior. In addition, we investigate species-area relationships and rank-abundance patterns. The slopes of the species-area relationships, which are consistent over coarse-graining resolutions, match those found in real landscapes in the case of long-distance dispersal. The rank-abundance patterns are independent of the resolution over a broad range of dispersal length. Our results confirm that strong interactions occur between network structure and the dispersal of species and that under the assumption of neutral dynamics, these interactions produce resolution-dependent biodiversity patterns that diverge from expectations following from universal geomorphic scaling laws. Both in theoretical and in applied ecology studying how patterns change in resolution is relevant for understanding how ecological dynamics work in fragmented landscape and for sampling and biodiversity management campaigns, especially in consideration of climate change