Risk factors associated with Rift Valley fever epidemics in South Africa in 2008–11

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic and vector-borne disease, mainly present in Africa, which represents a threat to human health, animal health and production. South Africa has experienced three major RVF epidemics (1950–51, 1973–75 and 2008–11). Due to data scarcity, no previous study has quantified risk factors associated with RVF epidemics in animals in South Africa. Using the 2008–11 epidemic datasets, a retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to identify and quantify spatial and temporal environmental factors associated with RVF incidence. Cox regressions with a Besag model to account for the spatial effects were fitted to the data. Coefficients were estimated by Bayesian inference using integrated nested Laplace approximation. An increase in vegetation density was the most important risk factor until 2010. In 2010, increased temperature was the major risk factor. In 2011, after the large 2010 epidemic wave, these associations were reversed, potentially confounded by immunity in animals, probably resulting from earlier infection and vaccination. Both vegetation density and temperature should be considered together in the development of risk management strategies. However, the crucial need for improved access to data on population at risk, animal movements and vaccine use is highlighted to improve model predictions

Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte

Using Risk Assessment as Part of a Systems Approach to the Control and Prevention of HPAIV H5N1

Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies

Prognostic and therapeutic implications of pulmonary hypertension complicating degenerative mitral regurgitation due to flail leaflet: A Multicenter Long-term International Study

Aims To determine the frequency, predictors, and outcome implications of pulmonary hypertension (PH) diagnosed by Doppler echocardiography in a large cohort of patients with the homogenous diagnosis of degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR) due to flail leaflets.Methods and resultsThe Mitral Regurgitation International DAtabase (MIDA) is a registry including patients with MR due to flail leaflets consecutively referred at tertiary centres in Europe and the USA. Between 1987 and 2004, pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) was measured at baseline by Doppler echocardiography in 437 patients (age 67 ± 11 years; 66 men). Pulmonary hypertension (PASP > 50 mmHg) was observed in 102 patients (23). Independent predictors of PH were age and left atrial size (P < 0.0001). During a mean follow-up of 4.8 ± 2.8 years, PH was a strong independent predictor of death [adjusted HR 2.03 (1.303.18) P 0.002], cardiovascular death [CVD; adjusted HR 2.21 (1.303.76) P 0.003], and heart failure [adjusted HR 1.70 (1.102.62) P 0.018]. Mitral valve surgery at any time during follow-up (performed in 325 patients, 75) was beneficial [adjusted HR for death 0.22 (0.140.36) P < 0.001], but PH was associated with the increased risk of postoperative death and CVD (P 0.01).Conclusion Pulmonary hypertension is a frequent complication of significant MR due to flail leaflet and is associated with major outcome implications, approximately doubling the risk of death and heart failure after diagnosis. Mitral valve surgery performed during follow-up is beneficial but does not completely abolish the adverse effects of PH once it is established and is particularly beneficial in patients without PH. These data support relieving PH secondary to MR due to flail leaflet, but also careful consideration for mitral surgery before PH is established

Endomyocardial Fibrosis: Still a Mystery after 60 Years

The pathologist Jack N. P. Davies identified endomyocardial fibrosis in Uganda in 1947. Since that time, reports of this restrictive cardiomyopathy have come from other parts of tropical Africa, South Asia, and South America. In Kampala, the disease accounts for 20% of heart disease patients referred for echocardiography. We conducted a systematic review of research on the epidemiology and etiology of endomyocardial fibrosis. We relied primarily on articles in the MEDLINE database with either “endomyocardial fibrosis” or “endomyocardial sclerosis” in the title. The volume of publications on endomyocardial fibrosis has declined since the 1980s. Despite several hypotheses regarding cause, no account of the etiology of this disease has yet fully explained its unique geographical distribution

Updated European guidelines for clinical management of familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP), gastric adenocarcinoma, proximal polyposis of the stomach (GAPPS) and other rare adenomatous polyposis syndromes : a joint EHTG-ESCP revision

BACKGROUND: Hereditary adenomatous polyposis syndromes, including familial adenomatous polyposis and other rare adenomatous polyposis syndromes, increase the lifetime risk of colorectal and other cancers. METHODS: A team of 38 experts convened to update the 2008 European recommendations for the clinical management of patients with adenomatous polyposis syndromes. Additionally, other rare monogenic adenomatous polyposis syndromes were reviewed and added. Eighty-nine clinically relevant questions were answered after a systematic review of the existing literature with grading of the evidence according to Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology. Two levels of consensus were identified: consensus threshold (≥67% of voting guideline committee members voting either 'Strongly agree' or 'Agree' during the Delphi rounds) and high threshold (consensus ≥ 80%). RESULTS: One hundred and forty statements reached a high level of consensus concerning the management of hereditary adenomatous polyposis syndromes. CONCLUSION: These updated guidelines provide current, comprehensive, and evidence-based practical recommendations for the management of surveillance and treatment of familial adenomatous polyposis patients, encompassing additionally MUTYH-associated polyposis, gastric adenocarcinoma and proximal polyposis of the stomach and other recently identified polyposis syndromes based on pathogenic variants in other genes than APC or MUTYH. Due to the rarity of these diseases, patients should be managed at specialized centres.Peer reviewe

DMTs and Covid-19 severity in MS: a pooled analysis from Italy and France

We evaluated the effect of DMTs on Covid-19 severity in patients with MS, with a pooled-analysis of two large cohorts from Italy and France. The association of baseline characteristics and DMTs with Covid-19 severity was assessed by multivariate ordinal-logistic models and pooled by a fixed-effect meta-analysis. 1066 patients with MS from Italy and 721 from France were included. In the multivariate model, anti-CD20 therapies were significantly associated (OR = 2.05, 95%CI = 1.39–3.02, p < 0.001) with Covid-19 severity, whereas interferon indicated a decreased risk (OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.18–0.99, p = 0.047). This pooled-analysis confirms an increased risk of severe Covid-19 in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and supports the protective role of interferon