Longitudinal LASSO: Jointly Learning Features and Temporal Contingency for Outcome Prediction

Longitudinal analysis is important in many disciplines, such as the study of behavioral transitions in social science. Only very recently, feature selection has drawn adequate attention in the context of longitudinal modeling. Standard techniques, such as generalized estimating equations, have been modified to select features by imposing sparsity-inducing regularizers. However, they do not explicitly model how a dependent variable relies on features measured at proximal time points. Recent graphical Granger modeling can select features in lagged time points but ignores the temporal correlations within an individual's repeated measurements. We propose an approach to automatically and simultaneously determine both the relevant features and the relevant temporal points that impact the current outcome of the dependent variable. Meanwhile, the proposed model takes into account the non-{\em i.i.d} nature of the data by estimating the within-individual correlations. This approach decomposes model parameters into a summation of two components and imposes separate block-wise LASSO penalties to each component when building a linear model in terms of the past $\tau$ measurements of features. One component is used to select features whereas the other is used to select temporal contingent points. An accelerated gradient descent algorithm is developed to efficiently solve the related optimization problem with detailed convergence analysis and asymptotic analysis. Computational results on both synthetic and real world problems demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach over existing techniques.Comment: Proceedings of the 21th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. ACM, 201

Distributed utterances

I propose an apparatus for handling intrasentential change in context. The standard approach has problems with sentences with multiple occurrences of the same demonstrative or indexical. My proposal involves the idea that contexts can be complex. Complex contexts are built out of (“simple”) Kaplanian contexts by ordered n-tupling. With these we can revise the clauses of Kaplan’s Logic of Demonstratives so that each part of a sentence is taken in a different component of a complex context. I consider other applications of the framework: to agentially distributed utterances (ones made partly by one speaker and partly by another); to an account of scare-quoting; and to an account of a binding-like phenomenon that avoids what Kit Fine calls “the antinomy of the variable.

Binary Models for Marginal Independence

Log-linear models are a classical tool for the analysis of contingency tables. In particular, the subclass of graphical log-linear models provides a general framework for modelling conditional independences. However, with the exception of special structures, marginal independence hypotheses cannot be accommodated by these traditional models. Focusing on binary variables, we present a model class that provides a framework for modelling marginal independences in contingency tables. The approach taken is graphical and draws on analogies to multivariate Gaussian models for marginal independence. For the graphical model representation we use bi-directed graphs, which are in the tradition of path diagrams. We show how the models can be parameterized in a simple fashion, and how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed using a version of the Iterated Conditional Fitting algorithm. Finally we consider combining these models with symmetry restrictions

Application of asymptotic expansions of maximum likelihood estimators errors to gravitational waves from binary mergers: the single interferometer case

In this paper we describe a new methodology to calculate analytically the error for a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for physical parameters from Gravitational wave signals. All the existing litterature focuses on the usage of the Cramer Rao Lower bounds (CRLB) as a mean to approximate the errors for large signal to noise ratios. We show here how the variance and the bias of a MLE estimate can be expressed instead in inverse powers of the signal to noise ratios where the first order in the variance expansion is the CRLB. As an application we compute the second order of the variance and bias for MLE of physical parameters from the inspiral phase of binary mergers and for noises of gravitational wave interferometers . We also compare the improved error estimate with existing numerical estimates. The value of the second order of the variance expansions allows to get error predictions closer to what is observed in numerical simulations. It also predicts correctly the necessary SNR to approximate the error with the CRLB and provides new insight on the relationship between waveform properties SNR and estimation errors. For example the timing match filtering becomes optimal only if the SNR is larger than the kurtosis of the gravitational wave spectrum

Design and analysis of fractional factorial experiments from the viewpoint of computational algebraic statistics

We give an expository review of applications of computational algebraic statistics to design and analysis of fractional factorial experiments based on our recent works. For the purpose of design, the techniques of Gr\"obner bases and indicator functions allow us to treat fractional factorial designs without distinction between regular designs and non-regular designs. For the purpose of analysis of data from fractional factorial designs, the techniques of Markov bases allow us to handle discrete observations. Thus the approach of computational algebraic statistics greatly enlarges the scope of fractional factorial designs.Comment: 16 page

Harvesting traffic-induced vibrations for structural health monitoring of bridges

This paper discusses the development and testing of a renewable energy source for powering wireless sensors used to monitor the structural health of bridges. Traditional power cables or battery replacement are excessively expensive or infeasible in this type of application. An inertial power generator has been developed that can harvest traffic-induced bridge vibrations. Vibrations on bridges have very low acceleration (0.1–0.5 m s _2 ), low frequency (2–30 Hz), and they are non-periodic. A novel parametric frequency-increased generator (PFIG) is developed to address these challenges. The fabricated device can generate a peak power of 57 µW and an average power of 2.3 µW from an input acceleration of 0.54 m s _2 at only 2 Hz. The generator is capable of operating over an unprecedentedly large acceleration (0.54–9.8 m s _2 ) and frequency range (up to 30 Hz) without any modifications or tuning. Its performance was tested along the length of a suspension bridge and it generated 0.5–0.75 µW of average power without manipulation during installation or tuning at each bridge location. A preliminary power conversion system has also been developed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90794/1/0960-1317_21_10_104005.pd

Pygmy dipole strength close to particle-separation energies - the case of the Mo isotopes

The distribution of electromagnetic dipole strength in 92, 98, 100 Mo has been investigated by photon scattering using bremsstrahlung from the new ELBE facility. The experimental data for well separated nuclear resonances indicate a transition from a regular to a chaotic behaviour above 4 MeV of excitation energy. As the strength distributions follow a Porter-Thomas distribution much of the dipole strength is found in weak and in unresolved resonances appearing as fluctuating cross section. An analysis of this quasi-continuum - here applied to nuclear resonance fluorescence in a novel way - delivers dipole strength functions, which are combining smoothly to those obtained from (g,n)-data. Enhancements at 6.5 MeV and at ~9 MeV are linked to the pygmy dipole resonances postulated to occur in heavy nuclei.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, proceedings Nuclear Physics in Astrophysics II, May 16-20, Debrecen, Hungary. The original publication is available at www.eurphysj.or

Rural men and mental health: their experiences and how they managed

There is a growing awareness that a primary source of information about mental health lies with the consumers. This article reports on a study that interviewed rural men with the aim of exploring their mental health experiences within a rural environment. The results of the interviews are a number of stories of resilience and survival that highlight not only the importance of exploring the individuals' perspective of their issues, but also of acknowledging and drawing on their inner strengths. Rural men face a number of challenges that not only increase the risk of mental illness but also decrease the likelihood of them seeking and/or finding professional support. These men's stories, while different from each other, have a common thread of coping. Despite some support from family and friends participants also acknowledged that seeking out professional support could have made the recovery phase easier. Mental health nurses need to be aware, not only of the barrier to professional support but also of the significant resilience that individuals have and how it can be utilised

Proportional-odds models for repeated composite and long ordinal outcome scales

In many medical studies, researchers widely use composite or long ordinal scores, that is, scores that have a large number of categories and a natural ordering often resulting from the sum of a number of short ordinal scores, to assess function or quality of life. Typically, we analyse these using unjustified assumptions of normality for the outcome measure, which are unlikely to be even approximately true. Scores of this type are better analysed using methods reserved for more conventional (short) ordinal scores, such as the proportional-odds model. We can avoid the need for a large number of cut-point parameters that define the divisions between the score categories for long ordinal scores in the proportional-odds model by the inclusion of orthogonal polynomial contrasts. We introduce the repeated measures proportional-odds logistic regression model and describe for long ordinal outcomes modifications to the generalized estimating equation methodology used for parameter estimation. We introduce data from a trial assessing two surgical interventions, briefly describe and re-analyse these using the new model and compare inferences from the new analysis with previously published results for the primary outcome measure (hip function at 12 months postoperatively). We use a simulation study to illustrate how this model also has more general application for conventional short ordinal scores, to select amongst competing models of varying complexity for the cut-point parameters

Adsorption models of hybridization and post-hybridisation behaviour on oligonucleotide microarrays

Analysis of data from an Affymetrix Latin Square spike-in experiment indicates that measured fluorescence intensities of features on an oligonucleotide microarray are related to spike-in RNA target concentrations via a hyperbolic response function, generally identified as a Langmuir adsorption isotherm. Furthermore the asymptotic signal at high spike-in concentrations is almost invariably lower for a mismatch feature than for its partner perfect match feature. We survey a number of theoretical adsorption models of hybridization at the microarray surface and find that in general they are unable to explain the differing saturation responses of perfect and mismatch features. On the other hand, we find that a simple and consistent explanation can be found in a model in which equilibrium hybridization followed by partial dissociation of duplexes during the post-hybridization washing phase.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figures, some rearrangement of sections and some additions. To appear in J.Phys.(condensed matter