Forecasting eruptions from long-quiescent volcanoes

Forecasts of eruption are uncertain. The uncertainty is amplified when volcanoes reawaken after several generations in repose, because direct evidence of previous behaviour is rarely available. It fosters scepticism about warnings of volcanic activity and may compromise the success of emergency procedures. The quality of forecasts has improved over the past 50 years, owing mainly to a growing sophistication in statistical analyses of unrest. Physics-based analyses have yet to achieve the same level of maturity. Their application has been delayed by a view that volcanoes are too complex to share patterns of behaviour that can be described in a deterministic manner. This view is being increasingly challenged and an emerging line of inquiry is to understand how forecasts can be further improved by integrating statistical approaches with new constraints on possible outcomes from physics-based criteria. The introduction of deterministic reasoning yields rational explanations of why forecasts are not perfect and, as a result, offers new opportunities for increasing public confidence in warnings of eruption

Insights into sulfur cycling at subduction zones from in-situ isotopic analysis of sulfides in high-pressure serpentinites and ‘hybrid’ samples from Alpine Corsica

Devolatilisation of serpentinites at depth in subduction zones contributes significant quantities of sulfur and other redox sensitive elements to the sub-arc mantle. However, the fate of sulfur in subducted serpentinites is poorly constrained. Textures of sulfur-bearing phases in subducted serpentinites are rarely studied, yet provide important information on the changes to sulfur distribution throughout the subduction cycle and as a result of fluid infiltration. d34S values of sulfides provide constraints on sulfur sources, the redox state of sulfur in the host mineral, and on processes that have occurred subsequent to sulfide crystallisation, including interaction with oxidised or reduced fluids. Therefore, it is possible to use d34S values in subducted serpentinites to constrain the redox state of sulfur in sulfides and subduction zone fluids. Furthermore, the proximity of serpentinites to ocean crust and metasediments may influence enrichment or depletion of34S during subduction relative to serpentinites distal to such lithologies. This study investigates the redox state, the likelihood of sulfur addition to the sub-arc mantle from serpentinite dehydration, and the distribution of sulfur within subducted serpentinites and ‘hybrid’ mafic/ultramafic rocks from Alpine Corsica. The techniques utilised include petrographic analysis, in-situ sulfur isotopic analysis and trace element analysis of sulfides hosted in these rocks. All sulfides investigated have high d34S values of 1.9–15.5‰ which suggests that mantle-derived sulfur (d34S ~0.1‰), was not the sole source of sulfur. The highest d34S values are recorded in pyrites of a hybrid mafic/ultramafic sample. High d34S values are preserved in sulfides attributed to prograde metamorphism, and is most consistent with the retention of sulfur derived from hydrothermal sulfate reduction on the seafloor. However, a shift towards higher d34S values in sulfides associated with the advanced stages of exhumation suggests that late stage exhumation enables enhanced access to slab-derived fluids bearing oxidised sulfur (SO42-or SO2). Such fluids may have been derived from the devolatilisation of serpentinite at greater depth, or from other lithologies

Probabilistic approach to decision-making under uncertainty during volcanic crises: retrospective application to the El Hierro (Spain) 2011 volcanic crisis

© 2014, The Author(s). Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial for designing effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption, and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision-makers. Here, we present a new model Bayesian Decision Model (BADEMO) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision-makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision-makers.This research has been funded by the European Commission (FP7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: VUELCO).Peer Reviewe

Fracture of andesite in the brittle and brittle-ductile transition regimes

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Randomised controlled trial of fish oil supplement to treat cancer cachexia

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: Our overall aim is to provide an overview of interventions for preventing falls in older people by summarising the evidence from multiple Cochrane intervention reviews that evaluate the effects (primarily, rate of falls and number of fallers) of these interventions in different populations of older people, such as those defined by setting or by specific medical conditions. Fall prevention interventions will include those in the following categories: supervised or unsupervised exercises; medication; surgery; management of urinary incontinence; fluid or nutrition therapy; psychological; environment and assistive technologies; social environment; knowledge/education interventions and any other interventions that do not fall into one of these categories (Lamb 2007). Interventions tested may belong to one category ('single' intervention), or more than one category ('multiple' and 'multifactorial' interventions)

Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions: Beyond the Failure Forecast Method

Volcano-tectonic seismicity and ground movement are the most reliable precursors to eruptions after extended intervals of repose, as well as to flank eruptions from frequently active volcanoes. Their behavior is consistent with elastic-brittle failure of the crust before a new pathway is opened to allow magma ascent. A modified physical model shows that precursory time series are governed by a parent relation between faulting and elastic deformation in extension, subject to independent constraints on the rate of crustal loading with time. The results yield deterministic criteria that can be incorporated into existing operational procedures for evaluating the probability of crustal failure and, hence, levels of alert during an emergency. They also suggest that the popular failure forecast method for using precursory time series to forecast eruptions is a particular form of the parent elastic-brittle model when rates of stress supply are constant, and that magma transport and crustal fracturing during unrest tend toward conditions for minimizing rates of energy loss

Tectonic stress and renewed uplift at Campi Flegrei caldera, southern Italy: New insights from caldera drilling

Deep drilling is a key tool for the investigation of active volcanoes in the modern Earth Sciences, as this provides the only means to obtain direct information on processes that occur at depth. Data acquired from drilling projects are fundamental to our understanding of volcano dynamics, and for mitigation of the hazards they pose for millions of people who live close to active volcanoes. We present here the first borehole measurement of the stress field in the crust of Campi Flegrei (southern Italy), a large active caldera, and one of the highest risk volcanoes worldwide. Measurements were performed to depths of ∼500 m during a pilot study for the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project. These data indicate an extensional stress field, with a minimum horizontal stress of ca. 75% to 80% of the maximum horizontal stress, which is approximately equal to the vertical stress. The deviation from lithostatic conditions is consistent with a progressive increase in applied horizontal stress during episodes of unrest, since at least 1969. As the stress field is evolving with time, the outcome of renewed unrest cannot be assessed by analogy with previous episodes. Interpretations of future unrest must therefore accommodate the possibility that Campi Flegrei is approaching conditions that are more favourable to a volcanic eruption than has previously been the case. Such long-term accumulation of stress is not expected to be unique to Campi Flegrei, and so might provide a basis for improved forecasts of eruptions at large calderas elsewhere