Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies

Miscalibration is a standard measure of overconfidence in both psychology and economics. Although it is often used in lab experiments, there is scarcity of evidence about its effects in practice. We test whether top corporate executives are miscalibrated, and whether their miscalibration impacts investment behavior. Over six years, we collect a unique panel of nearly 7,000 observations of probability distributions provided by top financial executives regarding the stock market. Financial executives are miscalibrated: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only 38% of the time. We show that companies with overconfident CFOs use lower discount rates to value cash flows, and that they invest more, use more debt, are less likely to pay dividends, are more likely to repurchase shares, and they use proportionally more long-term, as opposed to short-term, debt. The pervasive effect of this miscalibration suggests that the effect of overconfidence should be explicitly modeled when analyzing corporate decision-making.

Managerial Miscalibration

Using a unique 10-year panel that includes more than 13,300 expected stock market return probability distributions, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated, producing distributions that are too narrow: realized market returns are within the executives’ 80% confidence intervals only 36% of the time. We show that executives reduce the lower bound of the forecast confidence interval during times of high market uncertainty; however, ex post miscalibration is worst during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that executives who are miscalibrated about the stock market show similar miscalibration regarding their own firms’ prospects. Finally, firms with miscalibrated executives seem to follow more aggressive corporate policies: investing more and using more debt financing.

Steering proton migration in hydrocarbons using intense few-cycle laser fields

Proton migration is a ubiquitous process in chemical reactions related to biology, combustion, and catalysis. Thus, the ability to control the movement of nuclei with tailored light, within a hydrocarbon molecule holds promise for far-reaching applications. Here, we demonstrate the steering of hydrogen migration in simple hydrocarbons, namely acetylene and allene, using waveform-controlled, few-cycle laser pulses. The rearrangement dynamics are monitored using coincident 3D momentum imaging spectroscopy, and described with a quantum-dynamical model. Our observations reveal that the underlying control mechanism is due to the manipulation of the phases in a vibrational wavepacket by the intense off-resonant laser field.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Complete characterization of single-cycle double ionization of argon from the nonsequential to the sequential ionization regime

Citation: Kubel, M., Burger, C., Kling, N. G., Pischke, T., Beaufore, L., Ben-Itzhak, I., . . . Bergues, B. (2016). Complete characterization of single-cycle double ionization of argon from the nonsequential to the sequential ionization regime. Physical Review A, 93(5), 9. doi:10.1103/PhysRevA.93.053422Selected features of nonsequential double ionization have been qualitatively reproduced by a multitude of different (quantum and classical) approaches. In general, however, the typical uncertainty of laser pulse parameters and the restricted number of observables measured in individual experiments leave room for adjusting theoretical results to match the experimental data. While this has been hampering the assessment of different theoretical approaches leading to conflicting interpretations, comprehensive experimental data that would allow such an ultimate and quantitative assessment have been missing so far. To remedy this situation we have performed a kinematically complete measurement of single-cycle multiple ionization of argon over a one order of magnitude range of intensity. The momenta of electrons and ions resulting from the ionization of the target gas are measured in coincidence, while each ionization event is tagged with the carrier-envelope phase and intensity of the 4-fs laser pulse driving the process. The acquired highly differential experimental data provide a benchmark for a rigorous test of the many competing theoretical models used to describe nonsequential double ionization

Unambiguous observation of F-atom core-hole localization in CF4 through body-frame photoelectron angular distributions

Citation: McCurdy, C. W., Rescigno, T. N., Trevisan, C. S., Lucchese, R. R., Gaire, B., Menssen, A., . . . Weber, T. (2017). Unambiguous observation of F-atom core-hole localization in CF4 through body-frame photoelectron angular distributions. Physical Review A, 95(1). doi:10.1103/PhysRevA.95.011401A dramatic symmetry breaking in K-shell photoionization of the CF4 molecule in which a core-hole vacancy is created in one of four equivalent fluorine atoms is displayed in the molecular frame angular distribution of the photoelectrons. Observing the photoejected electron in coincidence with an F+ atomic ion after Auger decay is shown to select the dissociation path where the core hole was localized almost exclusively on that atom. A combination of measurements and ab initio calculations of the photoelectron angular distribution in the frame of the recoiling CF3+ and F+ atoms elucidates the underlying physics that derives from the Ne-like valence structure of the F(1s-1) core-excited atom. © 2017 American Physical Society

Velocity Dependence Of One- And Two-electron Processes In Intermediate-velocity Ar16++He Collisions

We report investigations of one- and two-electron processes in the collisions of 0.9-keV/u to 60-keV/u (vp=0.19-1.55 a.u.) Ar16+ ions with He targets. The cross sections for these processes were measured by observing the final charges of the Ar ions and the recoiling target ions in coincidence. The average Q values for the capture channels were determined by measuring the longitudinal momenta of the recoiling target ions. Single capture (SC) is the dominant process and is relatively independent of the projectile energy. The two-electron transfer-ionization (TI) process is the next largest and slowly increases with projectile energy. The Q values for both SC and TI decrease with increasing projectile energy. Our data thereby suggest that electrons are captured into less tightly bound states as the collision velocity is increased. Both double capture and single ionization are much smaller and fairly independent of the projectile energy. The energy independence of SI is somewhat surprising as our energy range spans the region of the target electron velocity where ionization would be expected to increase. Our analysis suggests that the ionization process is being suppressed by SC and TI processes. © 1993 The American Physical Society

Initial Safety and Tumor Control Results From a "First-in-Human" Multicenter Prospective Trial Evaluating a Novel Alpha-Emitting Radionuclide for the Treatment of Locally Advanced Recurrent Squamous Cell Carcinomas of the Skin and Head and Neck.

Purpose Our purpose was to report the feasibility and safety of diffusing alpha-emitter radiation therapy (DaRT), which entails the interstitial implantation of a novel alpha-emitting brachytherapy source, for the treatment of locally advanced and recurrent squamous cancers of the skin and head and neck. Methods and Materials This prospective first-in-human, multicenter clinical study evaluated 31 lesions in 28 patients. The primary objective was to determine the feasibility and safety of this approach, and the secondary objectives were to evaluate the initial tumor response and local progression-free survival. Eligibility criteria included all patients with biopsy-proven squamous cancers of the skin and head and neck with either primary tumors or recurrent/previously treated disease by either surgery or prior external beam radiation therapy; 13 of 31 lesions (42%) had received prior radiation therapy. Toxicity was evaluated according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.03. Tumor response was assessed at 30 to 45 days at a follow-up visit using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, version 1.1. Median follow-up time was 6.7 months. Results Acute toxicity included mostly local pain and erythema at the implantation site followed by swelling and mild skin ulceration. For pain and grade 2 skin ulcerations, 90% of patients had resolution within 3 to 5 weeks. Complete response to the Ra-224 DaRT treatment was observed in 22 lesions (22/28; 78.6%); 6 lesions (6/28, 21.4%) manifested a partial response (>30% tumor reduction). Among the 22 lesions with a complete response, 5 (22%) developed a subsequent local relapse at the site of DaRT implantation at a median time of 4.9 months (range, 2.43-5.52 months). The 1-year local progression-free survival probability at the implanted site was 44% overall (confidence interval [CI], 20.3%-64.3%) and 60% (95% CI, 28.61%-81.35%) for complete responders. Overall survival rates at 12 months post-DaRT implantation were 75% (95% CI, 46.14%-89.99%) among all patients and 93% (95% CI, 59.08%-98.96%) among complete responders. Conclusions Alpha-emitter brachytherapy using DaRT achieved significant tumor responses without grade 3 or higher toxicities observed. Longer follow-up observations and larger studies are underway to validate these findings

Topological Order in the Projected Entangled-Pair States Formalism: Transfer Operator and Boundary Hamiltonians

We study the structure of topological phases and their boundaries in the projected entangled-pair states (PEPS) formalism. We show how topological order in a system can be identified from the structure of the PEPS transfer operator and subsequently use these findings to analyze the structure of the boundary Hamiltonian, acting on the bond variables, which reflects the entanglement properties of the system. We find that in a topological phase, the boundary Hamiltonian consists of two parts: A universal nonlocal part which encodes the nature of the topological phase and a nonuniversal part which is local and inherits the symmetries of the topological model, which helps to infer the structure of the boundary Hamiltonian and thus possibly of the physical edge modes

Adaptive strong-field control of chemical dynamics guided by three-dimensional momentum imaging.

Shaping ultrafast laser pulses using adaptive feedback can manipulate dynamics in molecular systems, but extracting information from the optimized pulse remains difficult. Experimental time constraints often limit feedback to a single observable, complicating efforts to decipher the underlying mechanisms and parameterize the search process. Here we show, using two strong-field examples, that by rapidly inverting velocity map images of ions to recover the three-dimensional photofragment momentum distribution and incorporating that feedback into the control loop, the specificity of the control objective is markedly increased. First, the complex angular distribution of fragment ions from the nω+C2D4→C2D3++D interaction is manipulated. Second, isomerization of acetylene (nω+C2H2→C2H22+→CH2++C+) is controlled via a barrier-suppression mechanism, a result that is validated by model calculations. Collectively, these experiments comprise a significant advance towards the fundamental goal of actively guiding population to a specified quantum state of a molecule

The importance of Rydberg orbitals in dissociative ionization of small hydrocarbon molecules in intense laser fields

Much of our intuition about strong-field processes is built upon studies of diatomic molecules, which typically have electronic states that are relatively well separated in energy. In polyatomic molecules, however, the electronic states are closer together, leading to more complex interactions. A combined experimental and theoretical investigation of strong-field ionization followed by hydrogen elimination in the hydrocarbon series C2D2, C2D4 and C2D6 reveals that the photofragment angular distributions can only be understood when the field-dressed orbitals rather than the field-free orbitals are considered. Our measured angular distributions and intensity dependence show that these field-dressed orbitals can have strong Rydberg character for certain orientations of the molecule relative to the laser polarization and that they may contribute significantly to the hydrogen elimination dissociative ionization yield. These findings suggest that Rydberg contributions to field-dressed orbitals should be routinely considered when studying polyatomic molecules in intense laser fields