Assessing the impact of seasonal population fluctuation on regional flood risk management

This paper focuses on the integration of population and environmental models to address the effect of seasonally varying populations on exposure to flood risk. A spatiotemporal population modelling tool, Population24/7, has been combined with LISFLOOD-FP inundation model outputs for a study area centred on St Austell, Cornwall, UK. Results indicate seasonal cycles in populations and their exposure to flood hazard which are not accounted for in traditional population datasets or flood hazard analyses and which provide potential enhancements to current practice

THE LANDSCAPE: A GOOD OF CULTURE, IDENTIFICATION AND RICHNESS

The adoption of a systematic in geography has helped to "revolutionize" and in the same time to complete the notion of landscape that, until the half '900, has mastered the international geographic research. We are passed from definitions of the landscape like complex of the sensible features of a region of landscape like theatre etc. to that of landscape as structured system, where the natural and anthropic component are melt in a system which complexity is given by the inextricability of their relations as seen in a historical perspective. Already L. Gambi, however, in 1964 had adopted a first interpretative approach to the complexity of the landscape, looking no more at the man in the nature, according to Biasutti's point of view, but putting the "man in history" near the nature who, exploiting his kind of life contributes at the constitution of the "Anthropogeographic landscape". The centrality of the history in the processes of complexification of the landscape has been put, most recently, in evidence by Paola Sereno (2001): the landscape is composed of elements that belong to the various processes of territorialization, then at more territorial systems that the history produces, transmit some components that, changing even meaning and function, are reunited in a new system, establish new connections with other elements inside of new processes of territorialization. Not exist however a true "past" of the landscape if not in the whole of the continuous morphogenetic processes that had characterized it. In this perspective the landscape's tutelage not is immediately connected at the tutelage of a cultural, architectonic or monumental good that would be, because the same landscape configure itself as the historical - geographical context that the single object inside it get meaning; a context complex, however, because not only the simple union of elements, but the architecture of the nexus that tie them. The landscape configure itself as a whole of signs imprinted by the community to the own territory; it become then expression of belonging that consents to the men of recognize and identify themselves in the "places". Every landscape then has strong individualizing characters that consent the emersion of the deep roots of the realities that constitute the identity of the human groups that in time have established themselves in the territory. (Mautone, 1999). It is uncovered then an ambivalence that, according to M.C. Zerbi (1999) constitute the very essence of the complexity of the notion of landscape: from a side the landscape as visible, external, objective reality, that the observer can see, on the other side the mental image that the observer build for himself, the subjective dimension that is more strictly connect to the notion of cultural landscape. In particular Zerbi see how in the contemporary geographic research, the notion of landscape is seen in three different aspects that presuppose various uses. The first aspect concern The notion of cultural landscape, to whom geography has dedicate much time, as landscape modified by human work. Is derived a large meaning of this term, because the human work -directly or indirectly- manifests itself in a great number of landscapes. Is, however, according Zerbi, a good starting point to pick the past and present dynamics through an approach at the same time ecologic and historical - geographical. When then some elements of the cultural landscape stand out which are particularly appraised or are perceived as menaced in their own existence, it comes out the concept of landscape as patrimonial heritage. Is a more selective concept than previous, which concerns a reality full of values: archaeological sites, traditional agrarian cultivations, ancient houses become a heritage to protect and maintain more than to hand down. The historical gardens and parks too find place in this concept, becoming a planning object. There is even, according M.C. Zerbi, a third notion of cultural landscape that, this time, consider the landscape not only a objective reality, but a subjective interpretation of elements held in the ambient to which various human groups attribute different meanings and values. 228 Landscape then as way to see that surrounds us. At first sight it could seem an abstract approach, less responding to reality; is, instead, an approach that has validity even on the operative plane when is needed to know the values of the insiders, to make them aware of the planning of their complex of life

The impact of different rainfall products on landscape modelling simulations

Rainfall products can contain significantly different spatiotemporal estimates, depending on their underlying data and final constructed resolution. Commonly used products, such as rain gauges, rain gauge networks, and weather radar, differ in their information content regarding intensities, spatial variability, and natural climatic variability, therefore producing different estimates. Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the geomorphic changes in landscapes, and current models can simulate timeframes from event level to millions of years and some use rainfall inputs to drive them. However, the impact of different rainfall products on LEM outputs has never been considered. This study uses the STREAP rainfall generator, calibrated using commonly used rainfall observation products, to produce longer rainfall records than the observations to drive the CAESAR‐Lisflood LEM to examine how differences in rainfall products affect simulated landscapes. The results show that the simulation of changes to basin geomorphology is sensitive to the differences between rainfall products, with these differences expressed linearly in discharges but non‐linearly in sediment yields. Furthermore, when applied over a 1500‐year period, large differences in the simulated long profiles were observed, with the simulations producing greater sediment yields showing erosion extending further downstream. This suggests that the choice of rainfall product to drive LEMs has a large impact on the final simulated landscapes. The combination of rainfall generator model and LEMs represents a potentially powerful method for assessing the impacts of rainfall product differences on landscapes and their short‐ and long‐term evolution

A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding

We present a transparent and validated climate-conditioned catastrophe flood model for the UK, that simulates pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood risks at 1 arcsec spatial resolution (∼ 20–25 m). Hazard layers for 10 different return periods are produced over the whole UK for historic, 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2070 conditions using the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate simulations. From these, monetary losses are computed for five specific global warming levels above pre-industrial values (0.6, 1.1, 1.8, 2.5 and 3.3 ∘C). The analysis contains a greater level of detail and nuance compared to previous work, and represents our current best understanding of the UK's changing flood risk landscape. Validation against historical national return period flood maps yielded critical success index values of 0.65 and 0.76 for England and Wales, respectively, and maximum water levels for the Carlisle 2005 flood were replicated to a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.41 m without calibration. This level of skill is similar to local modelling with site-specific data. Expected annual damage in 2020 was GBP 730 million, which compares favourably to the observed value of GBP 714 million reported by the Association of British Insurers. Previous UK flood loss estimates based on government data are ∼ 3× higher, and lie well outside our modelled loss distribution, which is plausibly centred on the observations. We estimate that UK 1 % annual probability flood losses were ∼ 6 % greater for the average climate conditions of 2020 (∼ 1.1 ∘C of warming) compared to those of 1990 (∼ 0.6 ∘C of warming), and this increase can be kept to around ∼ 8 % if all countries' COP26 2030 carbon emission reduction pledges and “net zero” commitments are implemented in full. Implementing only the COP26 pledges increases UK 1 % annual probability flood losses by 23 % above average 1990 values, and potentially 37 % in a “worst case” scenario where carbon reduction targets are missed and climate sensitivity is high.</p

Multiple system atrophy

This is a practical guide to diagnosing and managing multiple system atrophy (MSA). We explain the newly published Movement Disorders Society Consensus Diagnostic Criteria, which include new ‘Clinically Established MSA’ and ‘Possible Prodromal MSA’ categories, hopefully reducing time to diagnosis. We then highlight the key clinical features of MSA to aid diagnosis. We include a list of MSA mimics with suggested methods of differentiation from MSA. Lastly, we discuss practical symptom management in people living with MSA, including balancing side effects, with the ultimate aim of improving quality of life

Ciliary dynein motor preassembly is regulated by Wdr92 in association with HSP90 co-chaperone, R2TP

The massive dynein motor complexes that drive ciliary and flagellar motility require cytoplasmic preassembly, a process requiring dedicated dynein assembly factors (DNAAFs). How DNAAFs interact with molecular chaperones to control dynein assembly is not clear. By analogy with the well-known multifunctional HSP90-associated cochaperone, R2TP, several DNAAFs have been suggested to perform novel R2TP-like functions. However, the involvement of R2TP itself (canonical R2TP) in dynein assembly remains unclear. Here we show that in Drosophila melanogaster, the R2TP-associated factor, Wdr92, is required exclusively for axonemal dynein assembly, likely in association with canonical R2TP. Proteomic analyses suggest that in addition to being a regulator of R2TP chaperoning activity, Wdr92 works with the DNAAF Spag1 at a distinct stage in dynein preassembly. Wdr92/R2TP function is likely distinct from that of the DNAAFs proposed to form dynein-specific R2TP-like complexes. Our findings thus establish a connection between dynein assembly and a core multifunctional cochaperone.</jats:p

Interaction of LATS1 with SMAC links the MST2/Hippo pathway with apoptosis in an IAP-dependent manner

Metastatic malignant melanoma is the deadliest skin cancer, and it is characterised by its high resistance to apoptosis. The main melanoma driving mutations are part of ERK pathway, with BRAF mutations being the most frequent ones, followed by NRAS, NF1 and MEK mutations. Increasing evidence shows that the MST2/Hippo pathway is also deregulated in melanoma. While mutations are rare, MST2/Hippo pathway core proteins expression levels are often dysregulated in melanoma. The expression of the tumour suppressor RASSF1A, a bona fide activator of the MST2 pathway, is silenced by promoter methylation in over half of melanomas and correlates with poor prognosis. Here, using mass spectrometry-based interaction proteomics we identified the Second Mitochondria-derived Activator of Caspases (SMAC) as a novel LATS1 interactor. We show that RASSF1A-dependent activation of the MST2 pathway promotes LATS1-SMAC interaction and negatively regulates the antiapoptotic signal mediated by the members of the IAP family. Moreover, proteomic experiments identified a common cluster of apoptotic regulators that bind to SMAC and LATS1. Mechanistic analysis shows that the LATS1-SMAC complex promotes XIAP ubiquitination and its subsequent degradation which ultimately results in apoptosis. Importantly, we show that the oncogenic BRAFV600E mutant prevents the proapoptotic signal mediated by the LATS1-SMAC complex while treatment of melanoma cell lines with BRAF inhibitors promotes the formation of this complex, indicating that inhibition of the LATS1-SMAC might be necessary for BRAFV600E-driven melanoma. Finally, we show that LATS1-SMAC interaction is regulated by the SMAC mimetic Birinapant, which requires C-IAP1 inhibition and the degradation of XIAP, suggesting that the MST2 pathway is part of the mechanism of action of Birinapant. Overall, the current work shows that SMAC-dependent apoptosis is regulated by the LATS1 tumour suppressor and supports the idea that LATS1 is a signalling hub that regulates the crosstalk between the MST2 pathway, the apoptotic network and the ERK pathway.Science Foundation IrelandUniversity College Dubli