Heterogeneity in Karakoram glacier surges

Many Karakoram glaciers periodically undergo surges during which large volumes of ice and debris are rapidly transported down-glacier, usually at a rate of one to two orders of magnitude greater than during quiescence. Here we identify eight recent surges in the region, and map their surface velocities using cross-correlation feature tracking on optical satellite imagery. In total, we present 44 surface velocity datasets, which show that Karakoram surges are generally short-lived, lasting between 3 and 5 years in most cases, and have rapid build-up and relaxation phases, often lasting less than a year. Peak velocities of up to 2 km a-1 are reached during summer months and the surges tend to diminish during winter months. Otherwise, they do not follow a clearly identifiable pattern. In two of the surges, the peak velocity travels down-ice through time as a wave, which we interpret as a surge front. Three other surges are characterised by high velocities that occur simultaneously across the entire glacier surface and acceleration and deceleration is close to monotonic. There is also no consistent seasonal control on surge initiation or termination. We suggest that the differing styles of surge can be partly accounted for by individual glacier configurations, and that while some characteristics of Karakoram surges are akin to thermally-controlled surges elsewhere (e.g. Svalbard), the dominant surge mechanism remains unclear. We thus propose that these surges represent a spectrum of flow instabilities and the processes controlling their evolution may vary on a glacier by glacier basis

Speedup and fracturing of George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

George VI Ice Shelf (GVIIS) is located on the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where several ice shelves have undergone rapid breakup in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming. We use a combination of optical (Landsat), radar (ERS 1/2 SAR) and laser altimetry (GLAS) datasets to examine the response of GVIIS to environmental change and to offer an assessment on its future stability. The spatial and structural changes of GVIIS (ca. 1973 to ca. 2010) are mapped and surface velocities are calculated at different time periods (InSAR and optical feature tracking from 1989 to 2009) to document changes in the ice shelf's flow regime. Surface elevation changes are recorded between 2003 and 2008 using repeat track ICESat acquisitions. We note an increase in fracture extent and distribution at the south ice front, ice-shelf acceleration towards both the north and south ice fronts and spatially varied negative surface elevation change throughout, with greater variations observed towards the central and southern regions of the ice shelf. We propose that whilst GVIIS is in no imminent danger of collapse, it is vulnerable to ongoing atmospheric and oceanic warming and is more susceptible to breakup along its southern margin in ice preconditioned for further retreat

A geomorphology based reconstruction of ice volume distribution at the Last Glacial Maximum across the Southern Alps of New Zealand

We present a 3D reconstruction of ice thickness distribution across the New Zealand Southern Alps at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, c. 30–18 ka). To achieve this, we used a perfect plasticity model which could easily be applied to other regions, hereafter termed REVOLTA (Reconstruction of Volume and Topography Automation). REVOLTA is driven by a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), which was modified to best represent LGM bed topography. Specifically, we removed contemporary ice, integrated offshore bathymetry and removed contemporary lakes. A review of valley in-fill sediments, uplift and denudation was also undertaken. Down-valley ice extents were constrained to an updated geo-database of LGM ice limits, whilst the model was tuned to best-fit known vertical limits from geomorphological and geochronological dating studies. We estimate a total LGM ice volume of 6,800 km3, characterised predominantly by valley style glaciation but with an ice cap across Fiordland. With a contemporary ice volume of approximately 50 km3, this represents a loss of 99.25% since the LGM. Using the newly created ice surface, equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for each glacier were reconstructed, revealing an average ELA depression of approximately 950 m from present. Analysis of the spatial variation of glacier-specific ELAs and their depression relative to today shows that whilst an east-west ELA gradient existed during the LGM it was less pronounced than at present. The reduced ELA gradient is attributed to an overall weakening of westerlies, a conclusion consistent with those derived from the latest independent climate models

Changes in glacier surface cover on Baltoro glacier, Karakoram, north Pakistan, 2001–2012

The presence of supraglacial debris on glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram affects the ablation rate of these glaciers and their response to climatic change. To understand how supraglacial debris distribution and associated surface features vary spatially and temporally, geomorphological mapping was undertaken on Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram, for three time-separated images between 2001–2012. Debris is supplied to the glacier system through frequent but small landslides at the glacier margin that form lateral and medial moraines and less frequent but higher volume rockfall events which are more lobate and often discontinuous in form. Debris on the glacier surface is identified as a series of distinct lithological units which merge downglacier of the convergence area between the Godwin-Austen and Baltoro South tributary glaciers. Debris distribution varies as a result of complex interaction between tributary glaciers and the main glacier tongue, complicated further by surge events on some tributary glaciers. Glacier flow dynamics mainly controls the evolution of a supraglacial debris layer. Identifying such spatial variability in debris rock type and temporal variability in debris distribution has implications for glacier ablation rate, affecting glacier surface energy balance. Accordingly, spatial and temporal variation in supraglacial debris should be considered when determining mass balance for these glaciers through time

Instruments and Methods:hot-water borehole drilling at a high-elevation debris-covered glacier

While hot-water drilling is a well-established technique used to access the subsurface of ice masses, drilling into high-elevation (≳ 4000 m a.s.l.) debris-covered glaciers faces specific challenges. First, restricted transport capacity limits individual equipment items to a volume and mass that can be slung by small helicopters. Second, low atmospheric oxygen and pressure reduces the effectiveness of combustion, limiting a system's ability to pump and heat water. Third, thick supraglacial debris, which is both highly uneven and unstable, inhibits direct access to the ice surface, hinders the manoeuvring of equipment and limits secure sites for equipment placement. Fourth, englacial debris can slow the drilling rate such that continued drilling becomes impracticable and/or boreholes deviate substantially from vertical. Because of these challenges, field-based englacial and subglacial data required to calibrate numerical models of high-elevation debris-covered glaciers are scarce or absent. Here, we summarise our experiences of hot-water drilling over two field seasons (2017–2018) at the debris-covered Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, where we melted 27 boreholes up to 192 m length, at elevations between 4900 and 5200 m a.s.l. We describe the drilling equipment and operation, evaluate the effectiveness of our approach and suggest equipment and methodological adaptations for future use

Distributed ice thickness and glacier volume in southern South America

South American glaciers, including those in Patagonia, presently contribute the largest amount of meltwater to sea level rise per unit glacier area in the world. Yet understanding of the mechanisms behind the associated glacier mass balance changes remains unquantified partly because models are hindered by a lack of knowledge of subglacial topography. This study applied a perfect-plasticity model along glacier centre-lines to derive a first-order estimate of ice thickness and then interpolated these thickness estimates across glacier areas. This produced the first complete coverage of distributed ice thickness, bed topography and volume for 617 glaciers between 41°S and 55°S and in 24 major glacier regions. Maximum modelled ice thicknesses reach 1631 m ± 179 m in the South Patagonian Icefield (SPI), 1315 m ± 145 m in the North Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and 936 m ± 103 m in Cordillera Darwin. The total modelled volume of ice is 1234.6 km3 ± 246.8 km3 for the NPI, 4326.6 km3 ± 865.2 km3 for the SPI and 151.9 km3 ± 30.38 km3 for Cordillera Darwin. The total volume was modelled to be 5955 km3 ± 1191 km3, which equates to 5458.3 Gt ± 1091.6 Gt ice and to 15.08 mm ± 3.01 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). However, a total area of 655 km2 contains ice below sea level and there are 282 individual overdeepenings with a mean depth of 38 m and a total volume if filled with water to the brim of 102 km3. Adjusting the potential SLE for the ice volume below sea level and for the maximum potential storage of meltwater in these overdeepenings produces a maximum potential sea level rise (SLR) of 14.71 mm ± 2.94 mm. We provide a calculation of the present ice volume per major river catchment and we discuss likely changes to southern South America glaciers in the future. The ice thickness and subglacial topography modelled by this study will facilitate future studies of ice dynamics and glacier isostatic adjustment, and will be important for projecting water resources and glacier hazards

Temporal variations in supraglacial debris distribution on Baltoro Glacier, Karakoram between 2001 and 2012

Distribution of supraglacial debris in a glacier system varies spatially and temporally due to differing rates of debris input, transport and deposition. Supraglacial debris distribution governs the thickness of a supraglacial debris layer, an important control on the amount of ablation that occurs under such a debris layer. Characterising supraglacial debris layer thickness on a glacier is therefore key to calculating ablation across a glacier surface. The spatial pattern of debris thickness on Baltoro Glacier has previously been calculated for one discrete point in time (2004) using satellite thermal data and an empirically based relationship between supraglacial debris layer thickness and debris surface temperature identified in the field. Here, the same empirically based relationship was applied to two further datasets (2001, 2012) to calculate debris layer thickness across Baltoro Glacier for three discrete points over an 11-year period (2001, 2004, 2012). Surface velocity and sediment flux were also calculated, as well as debris thickness change between periods. Using these outputs, alongside geomorphological maps of Baltoro Glacier produced for 2001, 2004 and 2012, spatiotemporal changes in debris distribution for a sub-decadal timescale were investigated. Sediment flux remained constant throughout the 11-year period. The greatest changes in debris thickness occurred along medial moraines, the locations of mass movement deposition and areas of interaction between tributary glaciers and the main glacier tongue. The study confirms the occurrence of spatiotemporal changes in supraglacial debris layer thickness on sub-decadal timescales, independent of variation in surface velocity. Instead, variation in rates of debris distribution are primarily attributed to frequency and magnitude of mass movement events over decadal timescales, with climate, regional uplift and erosion rates expected to control debris inputs over centurial to millennial timescales. Inclusion of such spatiotemporal variations in debris thickness in distributed surface energy balance models would increase the accuracy of calculated ablation, leading to a more accurate simulation of glacier mass balance through time, and greater precision in quantification of the response of debris-covered glaciers to climatic change

An integrated Structure-from-Motion and time-lapse technique for quantifying ice-margin dynamics

Fine resolution topographic data derived from methods such as Structure from Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS) have the potential to provide detailed observations of geomorphological change, but have thus far been limited by the logistical constraints of conducting repeat surveys in the field. Here, we present the results from an automated time-lapse camera array, deployed around an ice-marginal lake on the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet. Fifteen cameras acquired imagery three-times per day over a 426 day period, yielding a dataset of ~19 000 images. From these data we derived 18 point clouds of the ice-margin across a range of seasons and successfully identified calving events (ranging from 234 to 1475 m2 in area and 815–8725 m3 in volume) induced by ice cliff undercutting at the waterline and the collapse of spalling flakes. Low ambient light levels, locally reflective surfaces and the large survey range hindered analysis of smaller scale ice-margin dynamics. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that an integrated SfM-MVS and time-lapse approach can be employed to generate long-term 3-D topographic datasets and thus quantify ice-margin dynamics at a fine spatio-temporal scale. This approach provides a template for future studies of geomorphological change

Modelling outburst floods from moraine-dammed glacial lakes

In response to climatic change, the size and number of moraine-dammed supraglacial and proglacial lake systems have increased dramatically in recent decades. Given an appropriate trigger, the natural moraine dams that impound these proglacial lakes are breached, producing catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). These floods are highly complex phenomena, with flood characteristics controlled, in the first instance, by the style of breach formation. Downstream, GLOFs typically exhibit transient, often non-Newtonian fluid dynamics as a result of high rates of sediment entrainment from the dam structure and channel boundaries. Combined, these characteristics introduce numerous modelling challenges. In this review, the historical, contemporary and emerging approaches available to model the individual stages, or components, of a GLOF event are introduced and discussed. A number of methods exist to model the stages of a GLOF event. Dam-breach models can be categorised as being empirical, analytical or numerical in nature, with each method having significant advantages and shortcomings. Empirical relationships that produce estimates of peak discharge and time to peak are straightforward to implement, but the applicability of these models is often limited by the nature of the case study data from which they are derived. Furthermore, empirical models neglect the inclusion of basic hydraulic principles that describe the mechanics of breach formation. Analytical or parametric models simulate breach development using simplified versions of the physically based equations that describe breach enlargement, whilst complex, physically-based codes represent the state-of-the-art in numerical dam-breach modelling. To date, few of the latter have been applied to investigate the moraine-dam failure problem. Despite significant advances in the physical complexity and availability of higher-order hydrodynamic solvers, the majority of published accounts that have attempted to reconstruct or predict GLOF characteristics have been limited, often by necessity, to the use of relatively simplistic models. This is in part attributable to the unavailability of terrain models of many high-mountain catchments at the fine spatial resolutions required for the effective application of numerically-sophisticated codes, and their proprietary (and often cost-prohibitive) nature. However, advanced models are experiencing increasing use in the glacial hazards literature. In particular, the suitability of emerging mesh-free, particle-based methods for simulating dam-breach and GLOF routing may represent a solution to many of the challenges associated with modelling this complex phenomenon. Sources of uncertainty in the GLOF modelling chain have been identified by various workers. However, to date their significance for the robustness of reconstructive and predictive modelling efforts have been largely unexplored and quantified in detail. These sources include the geometric and material characterisation of moraine dam complexes, including lake bathymetry and the presence and extent of buried ice, initial conditions (freeboard, precise spillway dimensions), spatial discretisation of the down-valley domain, hydrodynamic model dimensionality and the dynamic coupling of successive components in the GLOF model cascade

Polythermal structure of a Himalayan debris-covered glacier revealed by borehole thermometry

Runoff from high-elevation debris-covered glaciers represents a crucial water supply for millions of people in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region, where peak water has already passed in places. Knowledge of glacier thermal regime is essential for predicting dynamic and geometric responses to mass balance change and determining subsurface drainage pathways, which ultimately influence proglacial discharge and hence downstream water availability. Yet, deep internal ice temperatures of these glaciers are unknown, making projections of their future response to climate change highly uncertain. Here, we show that the lower part of the ablation area of Khumbu Glacier, a high-elevation debris-covered glacier in Nepal, may contain ~56% temperate ice, with much of the colder shallow ice near to the melting-point temperature (within 0.8 °C). From boreholes drilled in the glacier’s ablation area, we measured a minimum ice temperature of −3.3 °C, and even the coldest ice we measured was 2 °C warmer than the mean annual air temperature. Our results indicate that high-elevation Himalayan glaciers are vulnerable to even minor atmospheric warming