Optimal discrete stopping times for reliability growth tests

Often, the duration of a reliability growth development test is specified in advance and the decision to terminate or continue testing is conducted at discrete time intervals. These features are normally not captured by reliability growth models. This paper adapts a standard reliability growth model to determine the optimal time for which to plan to terminate testing. The underlying stochastic process is developed from an Order Statistic argument with Bayesian inference used to estimate the number of faults within the design and classical inference procedures used to assess the rate of fault detection. Inference procedures within this framework are explored where it is shown the Maximum Likelihood Estimators possess a small bias and converges to the Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator after few tests for designs with moderate number of faults. It is shown that the Likelihood function can be bimodal when there is conflict between the observed rate of fault detection and the prior distribution describing the number of faults in the design. An illustrative example is provided

Nucleation of NaCl from aqueous solution: critical sizes, ion-attachment kinetics, and rates

Nucleation and crystal growth are important in material synthesis, climate modeling, biomineralization, and pharmaceutical formulation. Despite tremendous efforts, the mechanisms and kinetics of nucleation remain elusive to both theory and experiment. Here we investigate sodium chloride (NaCl) nucleation from supersaturated brines using seeded atomistic simulations, polymorph-specific order parameters, and elements of classical nucleation theory. We find that NaCl nucleates via the common rock salt structure. Ion desolvation - not diffusion - is identified as the limiting resistance to attachment. Two different analyses give approximately consistent attachment kinetics: diffusion along the nucleus size coordinate and reaction-diffusion analysis of approach-to-coexistence simulation data from Aragones et al. [J. Chem. Phys., 2012, 136, 244508]. Our simulations were performed at realistic supersaturations to enable the first direct comparison to experimental nucleation rates for this system. The computed and measured rates converge to a common upper limit at extremely high supersaturation. However, our rate predictions are between 15 and 30 orders of magnitude too fast. We comment on possible origins of the large discrepancies

Adding flavour to twistor strings

Twistor string theory is known to describe a wide variety of field theories at tree-level and has proved extremely useful in making substantial progress in perturbative gauge theory. We explore the twistor dual description of a class of N=2 UV-finite super-Yang-Mills theories with fundamental flavour by adding 'flavour' branes to the topological B-model on super-twistor space and comment on the appearance of these objects. Evidence for the correspondence is provided by matching amplitudes on both sides.Comment: 6 pages; contribution to the proceedings for the European Physical Society conference on High Energy Physics in Manchester, 19-25 July 2007. v3: Typos correcte

Effect of rejection on electrophysiologic function of canine intestinal grafts: Correlation with histopathology and na-k-ATPase activity

To investigate whether electrophysiologic changes can detect the early onset and progress of intestinal rejection, changes in in vitro electrophysiologic function, intestinal histopathology, and Na-K-ATPase activity were studied in dogs. Adult mongrel dogs of both sexes, weighing 18-24 kg, were used for auto and allo small bowel transplantation. The entire small bowels, except for short segments at the proximal and distal ends, were snitched between a pair of dogs (allograft). Animals receiving intestinal autotransplantation were used as controls. AIIograji recipients were sacrificed 3, 4, 5, 7, or 9 days after transplantation, and autograft recipients were sacrificed 3, 7, or 14 days afier transplantation. Immunosuppression was not used. Electrophysiologic measurements were done with an Ussing chamber. Histological analysis was performed blindly using whole thickness sections. Na-K-ATPase activity in the mucosal tissue, which is said to regulate the potential difference, was also measured. Potential difference, resistance, and Na-K-ATPase activity of the allografi intestine decreased with time and were significantly lower 7 and 9 days after transplantation compared to host intestine, normul intestine, and graft intestine of controls (autograft). Potential difference, resistance, and Na-K-ATPase activity of the native intestinal tissue and the autografts did not decrease with time. Detection of histologically mild rejection of the intestine, which is important for appropriate immunosup-pressive treatment in clinical cases, could not be achieved based on electrophysiology or Na-K-ATPase activity. Deterioration of electrophysiologic function during rejection correlated with the histological rejection process and Na-K-ATPase activity; however, electrophysiology my not be a reliable tool for monitoring grafrs, since it cannot detect early intestinal rejection. © 1995 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved: reproduction in whole or part not permitted

Towards Assurance for Plug & Play Medical Systems

Traditional safety-critical systems are designed and integrated by a systems integrator. The system integrator can asses the safety of the completed system before it is deployed. In medicine, there is a desire to transition from the traditional approach to a new model wherein a user can combine various devices post-hoc to create a new composite system that addresses a specific clinical scenario. Ensuring the safety of these systems is challenging: Safety is a property of systems that arises from the interaction of system components and it’s not possible to asses overall system safety by assessing a single component in isolation. It is unlikely that end-users will have the engineering expertise or resources to perform safety assessments each time they create a new composite system. In this paper we describe a platform-oriented approach to providing assurance for plug & play medical systems as well as an associated assurance argument pattern

One-Loop MHV Amplitudes in Supersymmetric Gauge Theories

Using CSW rules for constructing scalar Feynman diagrams from MHV vertices, we compute the contribution of $\mathcal {N}=1$ chiral multiplet to one-loop MHV gluon amplitude. The result agrees with the one obtained previously using unitarity-based methods, thereby demonstrating the validity of the MHV-diagram technique, in the case of one-loop MHV amplitudes, for all massless supersymmetric theories.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figure

Management and implications of severe COVID-19 in pregnancy in the UK: data from the UK Obstetric Surveillance System national cohort

INTRODUCTION: There is a lack of population level data on risk factors and impact of severe COVID-19 in pregnancy. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics, and maternal and perinatal outcomes associated with severe COVID-19 in pregnancy compared with those with mild and moderate COVID-19 and to explore the impact of timing of birth. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a national, prospective cohort study. All pregnant women admitted to hospital in the UK with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 from March 1, 2020 to October 31, 2021 were included. The severity of maternal infection (need for high flow or invasive ventilation, intensive care admission or died), pregnancy and perinatal outcomes, and the impact of timing of birth were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 4436 pregnant women, 13.9% (n = 616) had severe infection. Women with severe infection were more likely to be aged ≥30 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] aged 30-39 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-1.83), be overweight or obese (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.34-2.25 and aOR 2.52 95% CI 1.97-3.23, respectively), be of mixed ethnicity (aOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.17-3.21) or have gestational diabetes (aOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87) compared with those with mild or moderate infection. Women with severe infection were more likely to have a pre-labor cesarean birth (aOR 8.84, 95% CI 6.61-11.83), a very or extreme preterm birth (28-31+ weeks' gestation, aOR 18.97, 95% CI 7.78-14.85; <28 weeks' gestation, aOR 12.35, 95% CI 6.34-24.05) and their babies were more likely to be stillborn (aOR 2.51, 95% CI 1.35-4.66) or admitted to a neonatal unit (aOR 11.61, 95% CI 9.28-14.52). Of 112 women with severe infection who were discharged and gave birth at a later admission, the majority gave birth ≥36 weeks (85.7%), noting that three women in this group (2.7%) had a stillbirth. CONCLUSIONS: Severe COVID-19 in pregnancy increases the risk of adverse outcomes. Information to promote uptake of vaccination should specifically target those at greatest risk of severe outcomes. Decisions about timing of birth should be informed by multidisciplinary team discussion; however, our data suggest that women with severe infection who do not require early delivery have mostly good outcomes but that those with severe infection at term may warrant rapid delivery

The contribution of gestational age, area deprivation and mother's country of birth to ethnic variations in infant mortality in England and Wales: A national cohort study using routinely collected data

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to describe ethnic variations in infant mortality and explore the contribution of area deprivation, mother's country of birth, and prematurity to these variations. METHODS: We analyzed routine birth and death data on singleton live births (gestational age≥22 weeks) in England and Wales, 2006-2012. Infant mortality by ethnic group was analyzed using logistic regression with adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and gestational age. RESULTS: In the 4,634,932 births analyzed, crude infant mortality rates were higher in Pakistani, Black Caribbean, Black African, and Bangladeshi infants (6.92, 6.00, 5.17 and 4.40 per 1,000 live births, respectively vs. 2.87 in White British infants). Adjustment for maternal sociodemographic characteristics changed the results little. Further adjustment for gestational age strongly attenuated the risk in Black Caribbean (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.89-1.17) and Black African infants (1.17, 1.06-1.29) but not in Pakistani (2.32, 2.15-2.50), Bangladeshi (1.47, 1.28-1.69), and Indian infants (1.24, 1.11-1.38). Ethnic variations in infant mortality differed significantly between term and preterm infants. At term, South Asian groups had higher risks which cannot be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. In preterm infants, adjustment for degree of prematurity (<28, 28-31, 32-33, 34-36 weeks) fully explained increased risks in Black but not Pakistani and Bangladeshi infants. Sensitivity analyses with further adjustment for small for gestational age, or excluding deaths due to congenital anomalies did not fully explain the excess risk in South Asian groups. CONCLUSIONS: Higher infant mortality in South Asian and Black infants does not appear to be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. Higher proportions of very premature infants appear to explain increased risks in Black infants but not in South Asian groups. Strategies targeting the prevention and management of preterm birth in Black groups and suboptimal birthweight and modifiable risk factors for congenital anomalies in South Asian groups might help reduce ethnic inequalities in infant mortality

Loop amplitudes in gauge theories: modern analytic approaches

This article reviews on-shell methods for analytic computation of loop amplitudes, emphasizing techniques based on unitarity cuts. Unitarity techniques are formulated generally but have been especially useful for calculating one-loop amplitudes in massless theories such as Yang-Mills theory, QCD, and QED.Comment: 34 pages. Invited review for a special issue of Journal of Physics A devoted to "Scattering Amplitudes in Gauge Theories." v2: typesetting macro error fixe