MODEL DINAMIKA TRANSMISI PENYAKIT SCHISTOSOMIASIS

Schistosomiasis merupakan penyakit endemik yang disebabkan oleh cacing trematoda bergenus Schistosoma dengan hospes perantara keong bergenus Oncomelania. Di Indonesia, penyakit ini hanya ditemukan di dataran tinggi Lindu, Napu, dan Bada, Kabupaten Sigi dan Poso, Provinsi Sulawesi Tengah. Dalam penelitian ini, akan dikonstruksi model transmisi penyakit Schistosomiasis yang melibatkan populasi manusia, cacing Schistosoma japonicum, dan keong Oncomelania hupensis lindoensis yang merupakan keong endemik di Indonesia. Dari model tersebut diperoleh titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit Schistosomiasis dengan dan tanpa kehadiran populasi keong serta titik ekuilibrium endemik. Hasil kajian terhadap perilaku solusi mengindikasikan bahwa penyakit Schistosomiasis akan menghilang dari daerah endemik di masa yang akan datang, dengan tetap mempertahankan keberadaan populasi keong, jika dapat meminimalisir peluang kontak sukses terinfeksi Schistosomiasis yang termuat dalam syarat kestabilan solusi. Simulasi numerik diberikan untuk mendukung hasil tersebut

Dynamical Model for Transmission of West Nile Virus in Chicken-Mosquito Interaction

The West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted through the bites of infected mosquitoes. The spread of WNV in chicken populations is quite unique. Although chickens can contract the virus through a mosquito bite, they immediately build immunity to the virus and do not show physical symptoms of illness and hence chickens are only temporary carriers of the virus. Recently, experimental results have shown that mosquitoes do not change fecundity behavior, yet results indicate that resistance to infection is associated with afitness cost in terms of mosquito survival. We constructed a host-vector type transmission model for WNV in mosquito-chicken populations. The basicreproductive ratio, Ro , was obtained. From sensitivity analysis of Ro it was shown that under certain conditions this ratio decrease "“ with an increase of the lifetime of mosquito infection

The role of top-predator in the preservation of coral reefs ecosystem

The coral reef ecosystem in Indonesian as part of Coral Triangle Region has been significantly decreasing in the last decades. This damage has been known widely due to coastal development, pollution, and uncontrolled fishing and harvesting. Among other many living species in the environment, the existence of coral reefs is directly related to the existence of Drupella sp. and Acanthaster planci as the coral predators, while the existence of the predators also related to the Napoleon wrasse and Giant triton/ Trumpet shell as the top predator. This study discusses the interaction among the coral reefs, the predators and the top predators, which is represented in a dynamical model of predator-prey-top predator. In the absence of top predators, the system is reduced as a two-predator-prey model with only one surviving predator, Acanthaster planci, which has more effective predation behavior. The role of Napoleon wrasse as a top predator of both Acanthaster planci and Drupella sp. is significantly important to protect the coral reef from the excessive predation from Acanthaster planci and Drupella sp. A stable co-existence is shown between coral reef, Acanthaster planci and Napoleon wrasse. With the appearance of Giant tritons which predate only Acanthaster planci, a co-existence between five species may occur with abundant species of Giant triton

Stochastic and Deterministic Dynamic Model of Dengue Transmission Based on Dengue Incidence Data and Climate Factors in Bandung City

Indonesia, a country in the tropics, is an area of distribution and an endemic area of dengue. The death rate caused by dengue is relatively high In Indonesia. Therefore, the health authority must prioritize preventing and controlling dengue disease for a long-term policy. This study proposes a method based on dynamic climate variables in estimating the proportion of infected human and infected mosquito. We focus on the dengue case in Bandung city, one of the big cities in Indonesia, which is classified as endemic dengue. We applied the Poisson regression method involving dynamic climate variables to estimate the average number of infected human population. We then use these estimation results as the basis for approximating the proportion of infected human and mosquito populations using a deterministic and stochastic model approach. Effective reproduction number is also obtained here. The simulation results show that the stochastic model looks better in capturing dengue incidence data than the deterministic model. Therefore, dengue transmission can be reduced by controlling the abundance of mosquito populations, considering climate conditions and the historical number of infected human

MEMBANGUN MODEL PENYEBARAN PERILAKU MEROKOK BERDASARKAN FAKTOR BIOLOGIS DAN FAKTOR LINGKUNGAN SOSIAL

MEMBANGUN MODEL PENYEBARAN PERILAKU MEROKOK BERDASARKAN FAKTOR BIOLOGIS DAN FAKTOR LINGKUNGAN SOSIA

On the Reproduction Ratio of Dengue Incidence in Semarang, Indonesia 2015-2018

Dengue is one of the mosquito-borne diseases caused by dengue viruses (DENV), which has become endemic in most tropical and subtropical countries, including Indonesia. Since there is a lot of dengue incidence on children of age less than fourteen years old in Semarang, Indonesia, it is the interest here to analyze the different rates of infection among different age groups. A SIR-UV mathematical model with age structure in human the population is constructed to describe dengue transmission in Semarang from 2015 to 2018. In this study, we separated the human population into four age classes: children (0-4 years), youngster (5-14 years), productive adults (15-60 years) and non-productive adults (over 60 years). We use Particle Swarm  Optimization to obtain optimal parameters for the transmission rates based on the yearly incidence. The basic reproduction ratio (R0) is derived from the Next Generation Matrix and is evaluated by using the optimal parameters for data Semarang in 2015-2018. Numerical simulation results show that the number of dengue incidence is in a good agreement with the actual data in Semarang for 2015-2018

ANALISIS KESTABILAN MODEL HOST VEKTOR PENYEBARAN DEMAM KUNING PADA POPULASI KONSTAN

ANALISIS KESTABILAN MODEL HOST VEKTOR PENYEBARAN DEMAM KUNING PADA POPULASI KONSTA

Quantitative Measure to Differentiate Wicket Spike from Interictal Epileptiform Discharges

A number of benign EEG patterns are often misinterpreted as interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) because of their epileptiform appearances, one of them is wicket spike. Differentiating wicket spike from IEDs may help in preventing epilepsy misdiagnosis. The temporal location of IEDs and wicket spike were chosen from 143 EEG recordings. Amplitude, duration and angles were measured from the wave triangles and were used as the variables. In this study, linear discriminant analysis is used to create the formula to differentiate wicket spike from IEDs consisting spike and sharp waves. We obtained a formula with excellent accuracy. This study emphasizes the need for objective criteria to distinguish wicket spike from IEDs to avoid misreading of the EEG and misdiagnosis of epilepsy

A Dynamical Model for Transmission of West Nile Virus in Chicken-Mosquito Interaction

The West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted through the bites of infected mosquitoes. The spread of WNV in chicken populations is quite unique. Although chickens can contract the virus through a mosquito bite, they immediately build immunity to the virus and do not show physical symptoms of illness and hence chickens are only temporary carriers of the virus. Recently, experimental results have shown that mosquitoes do not change fecundity behavior, yet results indicate that resistance to infection is associated with a fitness cost in terms of mosquito survival. We constructed a host-vector type transmission model for WNV in mosquito-chicken populations. The basic reproductive ratio, R0 , was obtained. From sensitivity analysis of R0 it was shown that under certain conditions this ratio decrease – with an increase of the lifetime of mosquito infection

Dynamical Model for Transmission of West Nile Virus in Chicken-Mosquito Interaction

The West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted through the bites of infected mosquitoes. The spread of WNV in chicken populations is quite unique. Although chickens can contract the virus through a mosquito bite, they immediately build immunity to the virus and do not show physical symptoms of illness and hence chickens are only temporary carriers of the virus. Recently, experimental results have shown that mosquitoes do not change fecundity behavior, yet results indicate that resistance to infection is associated with afitness cost in terms of mosquito survival. We constructed a host-vector type transmission model for WNV in mosquito-chicken populations. The basicreproductive ratio, Ro , was obtained. From sensitivity analysis of Ro it was shown that under certain conditions this ratio decrease "“ with an increase of the lifetime of mosquito infection