Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises

Threatened reef corals of the world

10.1371/journal.pone.0034459PLoS ONE73

Single amino acid change in gp41 region of HIV-1 alters bystander apoptosis and CD4 decline in humanized mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The mechanism by which HIV infection leads to a selective depletion of CD4 cells leading to immunodeficiency remains highly debated. Whether the loss of CD4 cells is a direct consequence of virus infection or bystander apoptosis of uninfected cells is also uncertain.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We have addressed this issue in the humanized mouse model of HIV infection using a HIV variant with a point mutation in the gp41 region of the Env glycoprotein that alters its fusogenic activity. We demonstrate here that a single amino acid change (V38E) altering the cell-to-cell fusion activity of the Env minimizes CD4 loss in humanized mice without altering viral replication. This differential pathogenesis was associated with a lack of bystander apoptosis induction by V38E virus even in the presence of similar levels of infected cells. Interestingly, immune activation was observed with both WT and V38E infection suggesting that the two phenomena are likely not interdependent in the mouse model.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We conclude that Env fusion activity is one of the determinants of HIV pathogenesis and it may be possible to attenuate HIV by targeting gp41.</p

A Comparison of the Effects of Random and Selective Mass Extinctions on Erosion of Evolutionary History in Communities of Digital Organisms

The effect of mass extinctions on phylogenetic diversity and branching history of clades remains poorly understood in paleobiology. We examined the phylogenies of communities of digital organisms undergoing open-ended evolution as we subjected them to instantaneous “pulse” extinctions, choosing survivors at random, and to prolonged “press” extinctions involving a period of low resource availability. We measured age of the phylogenetic root and tree stemminess, and evaluated how branching history of the phylogenetic trees was affected by the extinction treatments. We found that strong random (pulse) and strong selective extinction (press) both left clear long-term signatures in root age distribution and tree stemminess, and eroded deep branching history to a greater degree than did weak extinction and control treatments. The widely-used Pybus-Harvey gamma statistic showed a clear short-term response to extinction and recovery, but differences between treatments diminished over time and did not show a long-term signature. The characteristics of post-extinction phylogenies were often affected as much by the recovery interval as by the extinction episode itself

Relationship between Exercise Capacity and Brain Size in Mammals

A great deal of experimental research supports strong associations between exercise, cognition, neurogenesis and neuroprotection in mammals. Much of this work has focused on neurogenesis in individual subjects in a limited number of species. However, no study to date has examined the relationship between exercise and neurobiology across a wide range of mammalian taxa. It is possible that exercise and neurobiology are related across evolutionary time. To test this hypothesis, this study examines the association between exercise and brain size across a wide range of mammals.Controlling for associations with body size, we examined the correlation between brain size and a proxy for exercise frequency and capacity, maximum metabolic rate (MMR; ml O(2) min(-1)). We collected brain sizes and MMRs from the literature and calculated residuals from the least-squares regression line describing the relationship between body mass and each variable of interest. We then analyzed the correlation between residual brain size and residual MMR both before and after controlling for phylogeny using phylogenetic independent contrasts. We found a significant positive correlation between maximum metabolic rate and brain size across a wide range of taxa.These results suggest a novel hypothesis that links brain size to the evolution of locomotor behaviors in a wide variety of mammalian species. In the end, we suggest that some portion of brain size in nonhuman mammals may have evolved in conjunction with increases in exercise capacity rather than solely in response to selection related to cognitive abilities

Ancient and Recent Adaptive Evolution of Primate Non-Homologous End Joining Genes

In human cells, DNA double-strand breaks are repaired primarily by the non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) pathway. Given their critical nature, we expected NHEJ proteins to be evolutionarily conserved, with relatively little sequence change over time. Here, we report that while critical domains of these proteins are conserved as expected, the sequence of NHEJ proteins has also been shaped by recurrent positive selection, leading to rapid sequence evolution in other protein domains. In order to characterize the molecular evolution of the human NHEJ pathway, we generated large simian primate sequence datasets for NHEJ genes. Codon-based models of gene evolution yielded statistical support for the recurrent positive selection of five NHEJ genes during primate evolution: XRCC4, NBS1, Artemis, POLλ, and CtIP. Analysis of human polymorphism data using the composite of multiple signals (CMS) test revealed that XRCC4 has also been subjected to positive selection in modern humans. Crystal structures are available for XRCC4, Nbs1, and Polλ; and residues under positive selection fall exclusively on the surfaces of these proteins. Despite the positive selection of such residues, biochemical experiments with variants of one positively selected site in Nbs1 confirm that functions necessary for DNA repair and checkpoint signaling have been conserved. However, many viruses interact with the proteins of the NHEJ pathway as part of their infectious lifecycle. We propose that an ongoing evolutionary arms race between viruses and NHEJ genes may be driving the surprisingly rapid evolution of these critical genes

Understanding complexity in the HIF signaling pathway using systems biology and mathematical modeling

Hypoxia is a common micro-environmental stress which is experienced by cells during a range of physiologic and pathophysiologic processes. The identification of the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) as the master regulator of the transcriptional response to hypoxia transformed our understanding of the mechanism underpinning the hypoxic response at the molecular level and identified HIF as a potentially important new therapeutic target. It has recently become clear that multiple levels of regulatory control exert influence on the HIF pathway giving the response a complex and dynamic activity profile. These include positive and negative feedback loops within the HIF pathway as well as multiple levels of crosstalk with other signaling pathways. The emerging model reflects a multi-level regulatory network that affects multiple aspects of the physiologic response to hypoxia including proliferation, apoptosis, and differentiation. Understanding the interplay between the molecular mechanisms involved in the dynamic regulation of the HIF pathway at a systems level is critically important in defining new appropriate therapeutic targets for human diseases including ischemia, cancer, and chronic inflammation. Here, we review our current knowledge of the regulatory circuits which exert influence over the HIF response and give examples of in silico model-based predictions of the dynamic behaviour of this system

Using death to one's advantage: HIV modulation of apoptosis

Infection by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is associated with an early immune dysfunction and progressive destruction of CD4+ T lymphocytes. This progressive disappearance of T cells leads to a lack of immune control of HIV replication and to the development of immune deficiency resulting in the increased occurrence of opportunistic infections associated with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). The HIV-induced, premature destruction of lymphocytes is associated with the continuous production of HIV viral proteins that modulate apoptotic pathways. The viral proteins, such as Tat, Env, and Nef, are associated with chronic immune activation and the continuous induction of apoptotic factors. Viral protein expression predisposes lymphocytes, particularly CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, and antigen-presenting cells, to evolve into effectors of apoptosis and as a result, to lead to the destruction of healthy, non-infected T cells. Tat and Nef, along with Vpu, can also protect HIV-infected cells from apoptosis by increasing anti-apoptotic proteins and down- regulating cell surface receptors recognized by immune system cells. This review will discuss the validity of the apoptosis hypothesis in HIV disease and the potential mechanism(s) that HIV proteins perform in the progressive T cell depletion observed in AIDS pathogenesis. Originally published Leukemia, Vol. 15, No. 3, Mar 200