Do Foreign Exchange Markets Still Trend?

Is it possible to profitably trade trends in foreign currencies? We examine the major currency futures contracts which have been trading since the 1970s as well as more recent contracts on exotic currencies that have only begun to trade in the past few years. The main conclusion is that the era of easy profits from simple trend following strategies in major foreign currencies is over. The markets have adapted to the extent that profits from these simple trading strategies have vanished.Presumably, trending may be a feature confined to currencies in the early years of a floating rate regime. When we look at some newly trading currencies, we see more attractive profit opportunities. Newly trading currency futures prices, like their counterparts thirty years ago, appear susceptible to trend following trading strategies

Macroannouncements, Bond Auctions and Rating Actions in the European Government Bond Spreads

This paper investigates the impact of macroannouncements, government bond auctions and rating actions on the 10-year government bond spreads for Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain with respect to Germany. Using a unique tick-by-tick dataset over 1/02/2009–05/31/2012, we identify the impact of the three drivers via jump and cojump detection procedures. Disentangling the pre-from the post-announcement effects, real economy and forward looking news releases from US and Euro area, country specific Spanish and German macroannouncements, and auctions hold in distressed countries such Italy and Spain have a statistically and economically significant effect. No role is played by rating actions

Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?

We test whether the rejections of the expectations hypothesis can be explained by two behavioral biases: the law of small numbers and conservatism. We use the term structure to decompose excess bond returns into components related to expectation errors and expectation revisions, enabling a direct test of behavioral models using the expectations of market participants. We find systematic patterns in expectation errors, and expectation revisions, which are consistent with these two biases. We show that a trading strategy that exploits these biases delivers significant economic profits and that our results are unlikely to be driven by a time-varying risk premium

Rationale behind IPO underpricing: evidence from Asian REIT IPOs

This article examines the rationale behind IPO underpricing using a sample of REIT IPOs in Asia. Although the IPOs registered an average initial return of 3.08%, the issuers were able to sell the IPO shares above their fundamental values by timing the listings in periods when existing REIT stocks are traded at a premium to their net asset values (NAV). An IPO could therefore be underpriced and yet produce a net gain for the issuer. The issuers’ net gain from IPO is, however, negatively related to long‐run performance of REIT IPOs

Authors ’ Coordinates

In the United States, but not in Canada, nominal interest on residential housing mortgages is a deductible expense for the personal income tax. This suggests that changes in nominal interest rates could conceivably have differing impacts on real estate values in the two countries. The inflation component of nominal interest should have a negative impact on Canadian real estate, but its effect should be strictly less negative in the US and could even be positive. Using real estate investment trusts along with expected inflation imputed from inflation-indexed bonds in both countries, we find empirical support for a material and significant difference. In Canada, increases in nominal interest rates driven by inflation have a negative impact. The US impact is minimal and ambiguous in sign. Addres

Commonality in liquidity: Evidence from the Stock Exchange of Thailand

This study examines commonality in liquidity of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) using a limited order book data from 1996 to 2003. Strong evidence is found for market-wide commonality in liquidity, which prevails across several liquidity measurements. Industry-wide commonality is found to be stronger than market-wide commonality in liquidity. However, we do not find a market-wide correlated liquidity supply imbalance. There is evidence that indicates a fall in individual liquidity on Monday and after a day with a positive return.Liquidity Commonality Microstructure Thailand

FAMILY FIRM IPO PERFORMANCE AND MARKET SIGNALS

Recently, the interests in the performance of family firms in the capital market are on the rise. However studies on long-term performance give us little information about the performance of family firms in the initial public offering (IPO) markets. Building on agency theory, we investigated the effect of three IPO signals in family firm IPOs. Practices such as the appointment of outside non-family directors and waiting longer before going public significantly reduce underpricing. In addition, family owners' intent to retain large percentage of share in the long run is an indication of original shareholders' level of confidence in their own companies. Such confidence helps reduce after market investors' uncertainty and thus underpricing. On the other hand, family ownership at the IPO positively moderates the impact of non-family directors on underpricing.Family business, IPO, Taiwan, IPO signals, control premium