MTfit: A Bayesian approach to seismic moment tensor inversion

MTfit is a Python module for Bayesian moment tensor source inversion of earthquake seismic data using polarities, amplitudes or amplitude ratios. It can solve for double couple or full moment tensor solutions, taking into account uncertainties in polarities, take-off angles of the rays from the source to the receiver, and amplitudes. It provides an easily accessible and extendable approach to earthquake source inversion which is particularly useful for local and regional events.The MTfit code was developed as part of a PhD project (Pugh 2015), funded under a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) studentship at the University of Cambridge, as a CASE award with Schlumberger. Seismometers were borrowed from the NERC SEIS-UK (loan 842)

Automatic Bayesian polarity determination

The polarity of the first motion of a seismic signal from an earthquake is an important constraint in earthquake source inversion. Microseismic events often have low signal-to-noise ratios, which may lead to difficulties estimating the correct first-motion polarities of the arrivals. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to polarity picking that can be both automated and combined with manual picking. This approach includes a quantitative estimate of the uncertainty of the polarity, improving calculation of the polarity probability density function for source inversion. It is sufficiently fast to be incorporated into an automatic processing workflow. When used in source inversion, the results are consistent with those from manual observations. In some cases, they produce a clearer constraint on the range of high-probability source mechanisms, and are better constrained than source mechanisms determined using a uniform probability of an incorrect polarity pick.This work was funded under a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) studentship as a CASE award with Schlumberger. Seismometers were borrowed from the NERC SEIS-UK (loan 842), who also archive the data.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw146

A Bayesian method for microseismic source inversion

Earthquake source inversion is highly dependent on location determination and velocity models. Uncertainties in both the model parameters and the observations need to be rigorously incorporated into an inversion approach. Here, we show a probabilistic Bayesian method that allows formal inclusion of the uncertainties in the moment tensor inversion. This method allows the combination of different sets of far-field observations, such as P-wave and S-wave polarities and amplitude ratios, into one inversion. Additional observations can be included by deriving a suitable likelihood function from the uncertainties. This inversion produces samples from the source posterior probability distribution, including a best-fitting solution for the source mechanism and associated probability. The inversion can be constrained to the double-couple space or allowed to explore the gamut of moment tensor solutions, allowing volumetric and other non-double-couple components. The posterior probability of the double-couple and full moment tensor source models can be evaluated from the Bayesian evidence, using samples from the likelihood distributions for the two source models, producing an estimate of whether or not a source is double-couple. Such an approach is ideally suited to microseismic studies where there are many sources of uncertainty and it is often difficult to produce reliability estimates of the source mechanism, although this can be true of many other cases. Using full-waveform synthetic seismograms, we also show the effects of noise, location, network distribution and velocity model uncertainty on the source probability density function. The noise has the largest effect on the results, especially as it can affect other parts of the event processing. This uncertainty can lead to erroneous non-double-couple source probability distributions, even when no other uncertainties exist. Although including amplitude ratios can improve the constraint on the source probability distribution, the measurements are often systematically affected by noise, leading to deviation from their noise-free true values and consequently adversely affecting the source probability distribution, especially for the full moment tensor model. As an example of the application of this method, four events from the Krafla volcano in Iceland are inverted, which show clear differentiation between non-double-couple and double-couple sources, reflected in the posterior probability distributions for the source models.NERCThis is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Oxford University Press via https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw186

The effectiveness of public procurement in stimulating innovation outputs: empirical evidence from European firms

Over the last decade a number of public procurement directives at national and European Union level have sought to enhance the effectiveness of public procurement in stimulating firm-level innovation. Yet there is an absence of empirical evidence relating to the impact of public procurement on innovation. In this paper, we address this gap by evaluating the effectiveness of public procurement on a range of innovation output indicators. Using the Community Innovation Survey 2012 dataset, we empirically estimate direct and indirect treatment effects of public procurement in different country groups (Innovation Leaders, Innovation Followers and Moderate Innovators). We find no systemic direct effects on innovation outputs across country groups. However, for indirect effects, our results indicate strong universal effects on non-technological innovations. Our empirical evidence provides some policy implications, in particular relating to “innovation-friendly” public procurement

Differential impact of water immersion on arterial blood flow and shear stress in the carotid and brachial arteries of humans.

Arterial shear stress is a potent stimulus to vascular adaptation in humans. Typically, increases in retrograde shear have been found to acutely impair vascular function while increases in antegrade shear enhance function. We hypothesized that blood flow and shear stress through the brachial and carotid arteries would change in a similar manner in response to water immersion, an intervention which modifies hemodynamics. Nine healthy young male subjects were recruited to undergo controlled water immersion in a standing upright position to the level of the right atrium in 30°C water. Diameters were continuously and simultaneously recorded in the brachial and common carotid arteries along with mean arterial pressure (MAP), cardiac output (CO), and heart rate before, during, and after 10 min of immersion. MAP and CO increased during water immersion (baseline vs. 8-10 min; 80 ± 9 vs. 91 ± 12 mmHg; and 4.8 ± 0.7 vs. 5.1 ± 0.6 L/min, P < 0.01 and P < 0.05, respectively). We observed a differential regulation of flow and shear stress patterns in the brachial and carotid arteries in response to water immersion; brachial conductance decreased markedly in response to immersion (1.25 ± 0.56 vs. 0.57 ± 0.30 mL.min/mmHg, P < 0.05), whereas it was unaltered in the carotid artery (5.82 ± 2.14 vs. 5.60 ± 1.59). Our findings indicate that adaptations to systemic stimuli and arterial adaptation may be vessel bed specific in humans, highlighting the need to assess multiple vascular sites in future studies

The role of glacier mice in the invertebrate colonisation of glacial surfaces: the moss balls of the Falljökull, Iceland

Glacier surfaces have a surprisingly complex ecology. Cryoconite holes contain diverse invertebrate communities while other invertebrates, such as Collembola often graze on algae and windblown dead organic on the glacier surface. Glacier mice (ovoid unattached moss balls) occur on some glaciers worldwide. Studies of these glacier mice have concentrated on their occurrence and mode of formation. There are no reports of the invertebrate communities. But, such glacier mice may provide a suitable favourable habitat and refuge for a variety of invertebrate groups to colonise the glacier surface. Here we describe the invertebrate fauna of the glacier mice (moss balls) of the Falljökull, Iceland. The glacier mice were composed of Racomitrium sp. and varied in size from 8.0 to 10.0 cm in length. All glacier mice studied contained invertebrates. Two species of Collembola were present. Pseudisotoma sensibilis (Tullberg, 1876) was numerically dominant with between 12 and 73 individuals per glacier mouse while Desoria olivacea (Tullberg, 1871) occurred but in far lower numbers. Tardigrada and Nematoda had mean densities of approximately 200 and 1,000 respectively. No Acari, Arachnida or Enchytraeidae were observed which may be related to the difficulty these groups have in colonizing the glacier mice. We suggest that glacier mice provide an unusual environmentally ameliorated microhabitat for an invertebrate community dwelling on a glacial surface. The glacier mice thereby enable an invertebrate fauna to colonise an otherwise largely inhospitable location with implications for carbon flow in the system

Exercise-induced improvements in liver fat and endothelial function are not sustained 12 months following cessation of exercise supervision in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

AIMS: Supervised exercise reduces liver fat and improves endothelial function, a surrogate of cardiovascular disease risk, in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We hypothesised that after a 16-week supervised exercise program, patients would maintain longer-term improvements in cardiorespiratory fitness, liver fat and endothelial function. MATHERIALS AND METHODS: Ten NAFLD patients [5/5 males/females, age 51±13years, BMI 31±3 kg.m(2) (mean±s.d.)] underwent a 16-week supervised moderate-intensity exercise intervention. Biochemical markers, cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2peak), subcutaneous, visceral and liver fat (measured by magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy respectively) and brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) were assessed at baseline, after 16 weeks supervised training and 12-months after ending supervision. RESULTS: Despite no significant change in body weight, there were significant improvements in VO2peak [6.5 ml.kg(-1).min(-1) (95% CI 2.8, 10.1); P=0.003], FMD [2.9% (1.5, 4.2); P=0.001], liver transaminases (P0.05) and liver fat [1.4% (-13.0, 15.9); P=0.83] were not significantly different from baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Twelve months following cessation of supervision, exercise-mediated improvements in liver fat and other cardiometabolic variables had reversed with cardiorespiratory fitness at baseline levels. Maintenance of high cardiorespiratory fitness and stability of body weight are critical public health considerations for the treatment of NAFLD.International Journal of Obesity accepted article preview online, 21 July 2016. doi:10.1038/ijo.2016.123

Memory consolidation in the cerebellar cortex

Several forms of learning, including classical conditioning of the eyeblink, depend upon the cerebellum. In examining mechanisms of eyeblink conditioning in rabbits, reversible inactivations of the control circuitry have begun to dissociate aspects of cerebellar cortical and nuclear function in memory consolidation. It was previously shown that post-training cerebellar cortical, but not nuclear, inactivations with the GABA(A) agonist muscimol prevented consolidation but these findings left open the question as to how final memory storage was partitioned across cortical and nuclear levels. Memory consolidation might be essentially cortical and directly disturbed by actions of the muscimol, or it might be nuclear, and sensitive to the raised excitability of the nuclear neurons following the loss of cortical inhibition. To resolve this question, we simultaneously inactivated cerebellar cortical lobule HVI and the anterior interpositus nucleus of rabbits during the post-training period, so protecting the nuclei from disinhibitory effects of cortical inactivation. Consolidation was impaired by these simultaneous inactivations. Because direct application of muscimol to the nuclei alone has no impact upon consolidation, we can conclude that post-training, consolidation processes and memory storage for eyeblink conditioning have critical cerebellar cortical components. The findings are consistent with a recent model that suggests the distribution of learning-related plasticity across cortical and nuclear levels is task-dependent. There can be transfer to nuclear or brainstem levels for control of high-frequency responses but learning with lower frequency response components, such as in eyeblink conditioning, remains mainly dependent upon cortical memory storage