Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: rationale for definition of climate change scenarios and sensitivity framework. Milestone report 2. Revised November 2009

The primary objective of FD2020 ‘Regionalising the impacts of climate change on flood flows’ was to assess the suitability of current FCDPAG3 guidance given the advances in climate change science since its publication. PAG3 requires an allowance of 20% to be added to peak flows for any period between 2025 and 2115 for any location across Britain. This guidance was considered a precautionary value and its derivation reflected the evidence available at that time. FD2020 has been designed to increase this evidence base, and it is anticipated that the research will lead to the development of regional, rather than national, guidelines for changes to peak flows due to climate change. A scenario-neutral approach based on a broad sensitivity analysis to determine catchment response to changes in climate as chosen for FD2020. The method separates the climate change that a catchment may be exposed to (the hazard) from the catchment response (change in peak flows) to changes in the climate (the vulnerability). By combining current understanding of climate change likelihood (the ‘hazard’) with the vulnerability of a given catchment, it is possible to evaluate the risk of flood flow changes. The vulnerability of a catchment is to be characterised in two steps: first, the response of a set of catchment’s to a range of climatic changes are modelled, then analysed for similarity, and characterised according to catchment properties. This is done by defining a sensitivity framework of changes to the mean and seasonality of precipitation and temperature and modelling the response of each catchment within this fixed framework. To properly understand the relationship between catchment properties, climate changes and changes in flood flows, it is essential that the considered scenarios capture the range of potential climatic changes expected to occur in Great Britain, including the large GCM (Global Climate Model) uncertainty. This means the vulnerability assessment (or the conclusions of the modelling exercise and regionalisation study) will be as robust as possible, and provide a sound science-base for subsequent policy guidance to the flood management community. This project report describes the rationale and the development of the climate change scenarios used in the project FD2020. The objective of this module of work was to develop a methodology to conceptualise how a catchment’s vulnerability (in terms of change in its flood regime under climate change) could be evaluated. This requires the identification of a range of climate change scenarios to be used in a comprehensive yet manageable evaluation of future river flood flows, which was guided by, but not limited to, current predictions of future climatic changes. This methodology is also designed to characterise the climatic change hazard, so that it can be compared with the catchments vulnerability to changes. Previous climate change studies relied only on projections from a few global (GCM) and regional climate models (RCMs), and thus could only capture a very limited part of the GCM uncertainty. The IPCC AR4 now provides data from 17 GCMs, all considered equally plausible representations of future climates

The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations

As climate change may modify the hydrological cycle significantly, understanding the impact on river flow is important because it affects long-term water resources planning. Here, we describe a high-resolution British assessment of changes in river flows in the 2050s under 11 different realisations of HadRM3. In winter, river flows may either increase or decrease, with a wide range of possible decreases in summer flow. These results should encourage adaptation that copes with a broad range of future hydrological conditions. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge: National-scale assessment for the British mainland

Groundwater systems provide an important source of water supply as well as contributing baseflow to rivers, lakes and dependent ecosystems and so the impact of climate change on these systems needs to be understood. Calculating recharge to groundwater systems is, therefore, necessary to quantify what is typically one of the largest components of the groundwater balance. This study uses the national-scale recharge model developed for the British mainland and the 11 ensemble members from the Hadley Centre for rainfall and potential evaporation created by the Future Flows and Groundwater Levels (FFGWL) project to investigate the impact of future climate on groundwater resources. Changes to seasonal and monthly recharge for the 2050s and 2080s time slices have been produced for the whole modelled area and for river basin districts for England and Wales. Areal summaries and monthly time series of recharge values show a generally consistent trend of increased recharge in winter, decreased recharge in summer, and mixed pattern in autumn and spring. The work shows that increased winter rainfall is the main factor in increasing recharge. Water balance calculations reveal that over the 2050s and 2080s, the climate change “signal” predominates over the annual variability, which results in a clearer pattern of more recharge being concentrated in fewer months. This finding should prove useful for water resources planners to assess the resilience of groundwater resources to climate change. Further work is recommended to understand the sequencing of flooding and drought events and to the effects of soil health and land cover changes in the future analysis

Modelling the impact of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria on selection pressure for drug resistance

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) is a promising intervention for malaria control, although there are concerns about its impact on drug resistance. METHODS: The key model inputs are age-specific values for a) baseline anti-malarial dosing rate, b) parasite prevalence, and c) proportion of those treated with anti-malarials (outside IPT) who are infected. These are used to estimate the immediate effect of IPT on the genetic coefficient of selection (s). The scenarios modelled were year round IPT to infants in rural southern Tanzania, and three doses at monthly intervals of seasonal IPT in Senegal. RESULTS: In the simulated Tanzanian setting, the model suggests a high selection pressure for drug resistance, but that IPTi would only increase this by a small amount (4.4%). The percent change in s is larger if parasites are more concentrated in infants, or if baseline drug dosing is less common or less specific. If children aged up to five years are included in the Tanzanian scenario then the predicted increase in s rises to 31%. The Senegalese seasonal IPT scenario, in children up to five years, results in a predicted increase in s of 16%. CONCLUSION: There is a risk that the useful life of drugs will be shortened if IPT is implemented over a wide childhood age range. On the other hand, IPT delivered only to infants is unlikely to appreciably shorten the useful life of the drug used

Bis-imide granulatimide analogues as potent Checkpoint 1 kinase inhibitors.

Granulatimide and isogranulatimide, natural products isolated from an ascidian, were found to be abrogators of the cell cycle G2-M phase checkpoint by inhibition of Checkpoint 1 kinase (Chk1). In the course of structure–activity relationship studies on granulatimide analogues, we have synthesized a series of bis-imides, in which the imidazole moiety was replaced by an imide heterocycle. Various modifications have been introduced on one or both imide heterocycles, on the benzene ring, and on the indole nitrogen. Moreover, aza bis-imide analogues were synthesized in which the indole moiety was replaced by a 7-azaindole. Compared to those of granulatimide and isogranulatimide, the Chk1 inhibitory activities of some of the bis-imide carbazoles were stronger. In particular, 1,3,4,6-tetrahydro-10-hydroxy-7H-dipyrrolo[3,4-a:3,4-c]carbazole-1,3,4,6-tetraone 11 exhibited an IC50 value on purified full length Chk1 of 2 nM, which makes it a more potent Chk1 inhibitor than granulatimide and isogranulatimide. To get an insight into the selectivity of this new family of compounds, the inhibitory activities of 1,3,4,6-tetrahydro-7H-dipyrrolo[3,4-a:3,4-c]carbazole-1,3,4,6-tetraone A have been evaluated on a panel of 15 kinases, the strongest inhibitory potency was found for Chk1. The inhibitory activities of compounds A, 5 and 11 toward Src tyrosine kinase and the cytotoxicity of various tumor cell lines were also evaluate

Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations — are they unseen or unrealistic?

Large-ensemble climate model simulations can provide deeper understanding of the characteristics and causes of extreme events than historical observations, due to their larger sample size. However, adequate evaluation of simulated 'unseen' events that are more extreme than those seen in historical records is complicated by observational uncertainties and natural variability. Consequently, conventional evaluation and correction methods cannot determine whether simulations outside observed variability are correct for the right physical reasons. Here, we introduce a three-step procedure to assess the realism of simulated extreme events based on the model properties (step 1), statistical features (step 2), and physical credibility of the extreme events (step 3). We illustrate these steps for a 2000 year Amazon monthly flood ensemble simulated by the global climate model EC-Earth and global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. EC-Earth and PCR-GLOBWB are adequate for large-scale catchments like the Amazon, and have simulated 'unseen' monthly floods far outside observed variability. We find that the realism of these simulations cannot be statistically explained. For example, there could be legitimate discrepancies between simulations and observations resulting from infrequent temporal compounding of multiple flood peaks, rarely seen in observations. Physical credibility checks are crucial to assessing their realism and show that the unseen Amazon monthly floods were generated by an unrealistic bias correction of precipitation. We conclude that there is high sensitivity of simulations outside observed variability to the bias correction method, and that physical credibility checks are crucial to understanding what is driving the simulated extreme events. Understanding the driving mechanisms of unseen events may guide future research by uncovering key climate model deficiencies. They may also play a vital role in helping decision makers to anticipate unseen impacts by detecting plausible drivers

Assessing agreement between malaria slide density readings

BACKGROUND: Several criteria have been used to assess agreement between replicate slide readings of malaria parasite density. Such criteria may be based on percent difference, or absolute difference, or a combination. Neither the rationale for choosing between these types of criteria, nor that for choosing the magnitude of difference which defines acceptable agreement, are clear. The current paper seeks a procedure which avoids the disadvantages of these current options and whose parameter values are more clearly justified. METHODS AND RESULTS: Variation of parasite density within a slide is expected, even when it has been prepared from a homogeneous sample. This places lower limits on sensitivity and observer agreement, quantified by the Poisson distribution. This means that, if a criterion of fixed percent difference criterion is used for satisfactory agreement, the number of discrepant readings is over-estimated at low parasite densities. With a criterion of fixed absolute difference, the same happens at high parasite densities. For an ideal slide, following the Poisson distribution, a criterion based on a constant difference in square root counts would apply for all densities. This can be back-transformed to a difference in absolute counts, which, as expected, gives a wider range of acceptable agreement at higher average densities. In an example dataset from Tanzania, observed differences in square root counts correspond to a 95% limits of agreement of -2,800 and +2,500 parasites/microl at average density of 2,000 parasites/microl, and -6,200 and +5,700 parasites/microl at 10,000 parasites/microl. However, there were more outliers beyond those ranges at higher densities, meaning that actual coverage of these ranges was not a constant 95%, but decreased with density. In a second study, a trial of microscopist training, the corresponding ranges of agreement are wider and asymmetrical: -8,600 to +5,200/microl, and -19,200 to +11,700/microl, respectively. By comparison, the optimal limits of agreement, corresponding to Poisson variation, are +/- 780 and +/- 1,800 parasites/microl, respectively. The focus of this approach on the volume of blood read leads to other conclusions. For example, no matter how large a volume of blood is read, some densities are too low to be reliably detected, which in turn means that disagreements on slide positivity may simply result from within-slide variation, rather than reading errors. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method defines limits of acceptable agreement in a way which allows for the natural increase in variability with parasite density. This includes defining the levels of between-reader variability, which are consistent with random variation: disagreements within these limits should not trigger additional readings. This approach merits investigation in other settings, in order to determine both the extent of its applicability, and appropriate numerical values for limits of agreement

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application

Multi-time-scale hydroclimate dynamics of a regional watershed and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation:Application to the Seine river catchment, France

(IF 3.73; Q1)International audienceIn the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations.In this work, we develop an approach associating correlation between large and local scales, empirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: (i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and (ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations.The results showed that the links between large and local scales were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach, which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing monthly regional hydrometeorological processes (predictand: precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector). This approach basically consisted in three steps: 1 – decomposing large-scale climate and hydrological signals (SLP field, precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, 2 – generating a statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3 – summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either precipitation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with alternating flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter/spring 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. In accordance with previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP, precipitation and streamflow on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation