Propuesta de modelo de predicción del crecimiento económico basado en la ecuación keynesiana de demanda agregada: Caso Ecuador 1965-2018

It is important for researchers and economic policymakers to forecast GDP but sometimes it is complicated or expensive to access the information of the five components of the equation, so this research proposed to validate a model as parsimonious as possible that would make reliable predictions of GDP. Through an iterative process, they were estimated and validated, using multiple linear regression and based on the Expenditure Method equation, equations to whichnon-significant and/or less explanatory regressors were eliminated seeking maximum parsimony, to then prove the predictive power of valid equations. As a result, a statistically valid estimator with high predictive power was found, but it includes the five regressors of the original equation. Keywords: GDP, aggregate demand, forecast, parsimony. [1]E. López Fernández de Lascoiti, «CRACK DE 1929: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias.,» Revista Internacional del Mundo Económico y del Derecho, vol. I, pp. 1 - 16, 2009. [2]J. Montano, «Gran Depresión: Causas, Características y Consecuencias,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.lifeder.com/gran-depresion/. [3]M. Rapoport, «La crisis de 1929, la teoría económica y el New Deal,» 2008. [Online]. Available: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/subnotas/111712-35315-2008-09-17.html. [4]J. Ros, «La Teoría General de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna,» 2012. [Online]. Available: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/601/60123307002.pdf. [5]M. Kiziryan, «Demanda agregada,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html. [6]G. Mankiw, Macroeconomía, 6ta. Ed., España: Antoni Bosch, editor, S.A., 2006. [7]L. Gastón Lorente, «Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/. [8]R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer and R. Startz, Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed., México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V., 2009. [9]A. B. Abel and B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed., Madrid: Pearson Educación S.A., 2004. [10]S. Jahan, A. Saber Mahmud and C. Papageorgiou, «¿Qué es la economía keynesiana?,» 09 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf. [11]D. A. Lind, W. G. Marchal and S. A. Wathen, Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana Editores S.A. de C.V., 2012. [12]R. S. Pindick and D. L. Rubinfeld, Econometría: Modelos y pronósticos, 4ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw-Hill Interamericana, 2001. [13]D. R. Anderson, D. J. Sweeney and T. A. Williams, Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed., México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A., 2008. [14]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información Económica - Estadísticas del sector real,» 2020. [Online]. Available: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html. [15]D. N. Gujarati and D. C. Porter, Econometría. 5ta. Ed., México,D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación, 2010. [16]E. Court and E. Williams, Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed., Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina, 2011. [17]R. Montero Granados, «Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple,» Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España, 2016. [18]R. A. Fernández Montt, «Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta,» 2006. [Online]. Available: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm. [19]C. . H. Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982. [20]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed., México, D. F.: Cengage Learning, 2010. [21]R. Geary, «Some Results about Relations Between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document,» Review of International Statistical Institute, vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963.Es importante para investigadores y decisores de política económica pronosticar el PIB pero en ocasiones es complicado o caro acceder a la información de los cinco componentes de la ecuación, por lo que esta investigación se propuso validar un modelo lo más parsimonioso posible que posibilitara realizar predicciones fiables del PIB. Mediante un proceso iterativo se estimaron y validaron, utilizando la regresión lineal múltiple y partiendo de la ecuación del Método de Gasto, ecuaciones a las que se les eliminaban los regresores no significativos y/o de menor peso explicativo buscando la máxima parsimonia, para luego probar el poder predictivo de las ecuaciones válidas. Como resultado se encontró un estimador estadísticamente válido y con alto poder predictivo, pero que incluye a los cinco regresores de la ecuación original. Palabras Clave: PIB, demanda agregada, pronóstico, parsimonia. [1]E. López Fernández de Lascoiti, «CRACK DE 1929: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias.,» Revista Internacional del Mundo Económico y del Derecho, vol. I, pp. 1 - 16, 2009. [2]J. Montano, «Gran Depresión: Causas, Características y Consecuencias,» 2019. [En línea]. Available: https://www.lifeder.com/gran-depresion/. [3]M. Rapoport, «La crisis de 1929, la teoría económica y el New Deal,» 2008. [En línea]. Available: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/subnotas/111712-35315-2008-09-17.html. [4]J. Ros, «La Teoría General de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna,» 2012. [En línea]. Available: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/601/60123307002.pdf. [5]M. Kiziryan, «Demanda agregada,» 2019. [En línea]. Available: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html. [6]G. Mankiw, Macroeconomía, 6ta. Ed., España: Antoni Bosch, editor, S.A., 2006. [7]L. Gastón Lorente, «Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos,» 2019. [En línea]. Available: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/. [8]R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer y R. Startz, Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed., México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V., 2009. [9]A. B. Abel y B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed., Madrid: Pearson Educación S.A., 2004. [10]S. Jahan, A. Saber Mahmud y C. Papageorgiou, «¿Qué es la economía keynesiana?,» 09 2014. [En línea]. Available: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf. [11]D. A. Lind, W. G. Marchal y S. A. Wathen, Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana Editores S.A. de C.V., 2012. [12]R. S. Pindick y D. L. Rubinfeld, Econometría: Modelos y pronósticos, 4ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw-Hill Interamericana, 2001. [13]D. R. Anderson, D. J. Sweeney y T. A. Williams, Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed., México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A., 2008. [14]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información Económica - Estadísticas del sector real,» 2020. [En línea]. Available: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html. [15]D. N. Gujarati y D. C. Porter, Econometría. 5ta. Ed., México,D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación, 2010. [16]E. Court y E. Williams, Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed., Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina, 2011. [17]R. Montero Granados, «Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple,» Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España, 2016. [18]R. A. Fernández Montt, «Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta,» 2006. [En línea]. Available: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm. [19]C. . H. Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982. [20]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed., México, D. F.: Cengage Learning, 2010. [21]R. Geary, «Some Results about Relations Between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document,» Review of International Statistical Institute, vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963

Propuesta de modelo de predicción del crecimiento económico basado en la ecuación keynesiana de demanda agregada: Caso Ecuador 1965- 2018

It is important for researchers and economic policy makers to forecast GDP but sometimes it is complicated or expensive to access the information of the five components of the equation, so this research proposed to validate a model as parsimonious as possible that would make reliable predictions of GDP. Through an iterative process they were estimated and validated, using multiple linear regression and based on the Expenditure Method equation, equations to whichnon-significant and / or less explanatory regressors were eliminated seeking maximum parsimony, to then prove the predictive power of valid equations. As a result, a statistically valid estimator with high predictive power was found, but it includes the five regressors of the original equation. Keywords: GDP, aggregate demand, forecast, parsimony. References [1]E. López Fernández de Lascoiti, «CRACK DE 1929: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias.,» Revista Internacional del Mundo Económico y del Derecho, vol. I, pp. 1 - 16, 2009. [2]J. Montano, «Gran Depresión: Causas, Características y Consecuencias,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.lifeder.com/gran-depresion/. [3]M. Rapoport, «La crisis de 1929, la teoría económica y el New Deal,» 2008. [Online]. Available: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/subnotas/111712-35315-2008-09-17.html. [4]J. Ros, «La Teoría General de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna,» 2012. [Online]. Available: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/601/60123307002.pdf. [5]M. Kiziryan, «Demanda agregada,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html. [6]G. Mankiw, Macroeconomía, 6ta. Ed., España: Antoni Bosch, editor, S.A., 2006. [7]L. Gastón Lorente, «Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos,» 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/. [8]R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer and R. Startz, Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed., México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V., 2009. [9]A. B. Abel and B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed., Madrid: Pearson Educación S.A., 2004. [10]S. Jahan, A. Saber Mahmud and C. Papageorgiou, «¿Qué es la economía keynesiana?,» 09 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf. [11]D. A. Lind, W. G. Marchal and S. A. Wathen, Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana Editores S.A. de C.V., 2012. [12]R. S. Pindick and D. L. Rubinfeld, Econometría: Modelos y pronósticos, 4ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw-Hill Interamericana, 2001. [13]D. R. Anderson, D. J. Sweeney and T. A. Williams, Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed., México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A., 2008. [14]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información Económica-Estadísticas del sector real,» 2020. [Online]. Available: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html. [15]D. N. Gujarati and D. C. Porter, Econometría. 5ta. Ed., México, D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación, 2010. [16]E. Court and E. Williams, Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed., Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina, 2011. [17]R. Montero Granados, «Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple,» Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España, 2016. [18]R. A. Fernández Montt, «Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta,» 2006. [Online]. Available: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm. [19]C. . H. Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982. [20]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed., México, D. F.: Cengage Learning, 2010. [21]R. Geary, «Some Results about Relations Between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document,» Review of International Statistical Institute, vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963.Es importante para investigadores y decisores de política económica pronosticar el PIB pero en ocasiones es complicado o caro acceder a la información de los cinco componentes de la ecuación, por lo que esta investigación se propuso validar un modelo lo más parsimonioso posible que posibilitara realizar predicciones fiables del PIB. Mediante un proceso iterativo se estimaron y validaron, utilizando la regresión lineal múltiple y partiendo de la ecuación delMétodo de Gasto, ecuaciones a las que se les eliminaban los regresores no significativos y/o de menor peso explicativo buscando la máxima parsimonia, para luego probar el poder predictivo de las ecuaciones válidas. Como resultado se encontró un estimador estadísticamente válido y con alto poder predictivo, pero que incluye a los cinco regresores de la ecuación original. Palabras clave: PIB, demanda agregada, pronóstico, parsimonia. Referencias [1]E. López Fernández de Lascoiti, «CRACK DE 1929: Causas, desarrollo y consecuencias.,» Revista Internacional del Mundo Económico y del Derecho, vol. I, pp. 1 - 16, 2009. [2]J. Montano, «Gran Depresión: Causas, Características y Consecuencias,» 2019. [En línea]. Disponible: https://www.lifeder.com/gran-depresion/. [3]M. Rapoport, «La crisis de 1929, la teoría económica y el New Deal,» 2008. [En línea]. Disponible: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/diario/economia/subnotas/111712-35315-2008-09-17.html. [4]J. Ros, «La Teoría General de Keynes y la macroeconomía moderna,» 2012. [En línea]. Disponible: https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/601/60123307002.pdf. [5]M. Kiziryan, «Demanda agregada,» 2019. [En línea]. Disponible: https://economipedia.com/definiciones/demanda-agregada.html. [6]G. Mankiw, Macroeconomía, 6ta. Ed., España: Antoni Bosch, editor, S.A., 2006. [7]L. Gastón Lorente, «Cómo calcular el PIB: Tres métodos,» 2019. [En línea]. Disponible: https://www.bbva.com/es/bbva-patrocina-el-almuerzo-inaugural-de-la-cumbre-del-clima-disenado-por-los-hermanos-roca/. [8]R. Dornbusch, S. Fischer y R. Startz, Macroeconomía, 10ma. Ed., México D. F.: McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editores, S.A. de C.V., 2009. [9]A. B. Abel y B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomía, 4ta. Ed., Madrid: Pearson Educación S.A., 2004. [10]S. Jahan, A. Saber Mahmud y C. Papageorgiou, «¿Qué es la economía keynesiana?,» 09 2014. [En línea]. Disponible: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2014/09/pdf/basics.pdf. [11]D. A. Lind, W. G. Marchal y S. A. Wathen, Estadística aplicada a los negocios y la economía. 15ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw Hill/Interamericana EditoresS.A. de C.V., 2012. [12]R. S. Pindick y D. L. Rubinfeld, Econometría: Modelos y pronósticos, 4ta. Ed., México D.F.: McGraw-Hill Interamericana, 2001. [13]D. R. Anderson, D. J. Sweeney y T. A. Williams, Estadística para administración y economía. 10ma. Ed., México D.F.: Cengage Learning Editores, S.A., 2008. [14]Banco Central del Ecuador, «Información Económica-Estadísticas del sector real,» 2020. [En línea]. Disponible: https://contenido.bce.fin.ec/documentos/Administracion/CuentasNacionalesAnuales.html. [15]D. N. Gujarati y D. C. Porter, Econometría. 5ta. Ed., México, D. F.: McGraw Hill Educación, 2010. [16]E. Court y E. Williams, Estadísticas y econometría financiera, 1ra. Ed., Buenos Aires: Cengage Learning Argentina, 2011. [17]R. Montero Granados, «Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple,» Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España, 2016. [18]R. A. Fernández Montt, «Regresión lineal. Multicolinealidad perfecta,» 2006. [En línea]. Disponible: http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/medir/rfm-multico.htm. [19]C. . H. Achen, Interpreting and Using Regression, Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982. [20]J. M. Wooldridge, Introducción a la econometría. Un enfoque moderno. 4ta. Ed., México, D. F.: Cengage Learning, 2010. [21]R. Geary, «Some Results about Relations Between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document,» Review of International Statistical Institute, vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963

Inventário florí­stico do Mosteiro Zen Horyu-Zan Eisho-Ji: contribuições para a criação de uma unidade de conservação no Cerrado

Pirenópolis apresenta diversas atividades econômicas e, além do agronegócio, pecuária e mineração, o municí­pio tem no ecoturismo uma das fontes de renda mais importantes de arrecadação. Para proteger o patrimônio natural da cidade é preciso aumentar o número de unidades de conservação a fim de perpetuar a biodiversidade do Cerrado e todos os serviços que uma área natural agrega. Desde a primeira visita técnica ao Mosteiro Zen Horyu-Zan Eisho-Ji sua diversidade florí­stica foi constatada. Ao final de um ano de expedição foram coletadas 436 espécies de plantas, de 227 gêneros e 86 famí­lias botânicas, sendo que sete dessas espécies são novas para a comunidade cientí­fica e nove encontram-se em alguma categoria de ameaça da IUCN. Esses atributos apontam para o potencial da propriedade do Mosteiro em se transformar em uma unidade de conservação e, assim, cumprir sua missão de proteger o Cerrado. Palavras-chave: Pirenópolis, florí­stica, espécies ameaçadas, Goiás, Cerrado.   Floristic Checklist of the Zen Monastery Horyu-Zan Eisho-Ji: inputs for the creation of a conservation unit in the Cerrado Pirenópolis presents several economic activities and, in addition to agribusiness, cattle farming and mining, the municipality has the ecotourism as one of the most important sources of income. In order to protect the natural heritage of the region it is necessary to increase the number of conservation units to perpetuate the biodiversity of the Cerrado and all the services that a natural area adds. From the first technical visit to the Zen Monastery Horyu-Zan Eisho-Ji its floristic diversity was confirmed and recorded. At the end of one year of expeditions, we collected 436 species of plants from 227 genera and 86 botanical families, seven of which are new to the scientific community and nine are listed as threatened following the IUCN classification. These attributes point to the potential of the Monastery's property to become a conservation unit and thus fulfill its mission to protect the Cerrado. Keywords: Pirenópolis, floristics, threatened species, Goiás, Cerrado

Erythrina velutina Willd. alkaloids : piecing biosynthesis together from transcriptome analysis and metabolite profiling of seeds and leaves

Introduction: Natural products of pharmaceutical interest often do not reach the drug market due to the associated low yields and difficult extraction. Knowledge of biosynthetic pathways is a key element in the development of biotechnological strategies for plant specialized metabolite production. Erythrina species are mainly used as central nervous system depressants in folk medicine and are important sources of bioactive tetracyclic benzylisoquinoline alkaloids (BIAs), which can act on several pathology-related biological targets. Objectives: In this sense, in an unprecedented approach used with a non-model Fabaceae species grown in its unique arid natural habitat, a combined transcriptome and metabolome analyses (seeds and leaves) is presented. Methods: The Next Generation Sequencing-based transcriptome (de novo RNA sequencing) was carried out in a NextSeq 500 platform. Regarding metabolite profiling, the High-resolution Liquid Chromatography was coupled to DAD and a micrOTOF-QII mass spectrometer by using electrospray ionization (ESI) and Time of Flight (TOF) analyzer. The tandem MS/MS data were processed and analyzed through Molecular Networking approach. Results: This detailed macro and micromolecular approach applied to seeds and leaves of E. velutina revealed 42 alkaloids, several of them unique. Based on the combined evidence, 24 gene candidates were put together in a putative pathway leading to the singular alkaloid diversity of this species. Conclusion: Overall, these results could contribute by indicating potential biotechnological targets formodulation of erythrina alkaloids biosynthesis as well as improve molecular databases with omic data from a non-model medicinal plant, and reveal an interesting chemical diversity of Erythrina BIA harvested in Caatinga

Erythrina velutina Willd. alkaloids: Piecing biosynthesis together from transcriptome analysis and metabolite profiling of seeds and leaves

Introduction: Natural products of pharmaceutical interest often do not reach the drug market due to the associated low yields and difficult extraction. Knowledge of biosynthetic pathways is a key element in the development of biotechnological strategies for plant specialized metabolite production. The scarce studies regarding non-model plants impair advances in this field. Erythrina spp. are mainly used as central nervous system depressants in folk medicine and are important sources of bioactive tetracyclic benzylisoquinoline alkaloids, which can act on several pathology-related biological targets. Objective: Herein the purpose is to employ combined transcriptome and metabolome analyses (seeds and leaves) of a non-model medicinal Fabaceae species grown in its unique arid natural habitat. The study tries to propose a putative biosynthetic pathway for the bioactive alkaloids by using an omic integrated approach. Methods: The Next Generation Sequencing-based transcriptome (de novo RNA sequencing) was carried out in a Illumina NextSeq 500 platform. Regarding the targeted metabolite profiling, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and the High-Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled to a micrOTOF-QII, High Resolution Mass Spectrometer, were used. Results: This detailed macro and micromolecular approach applied to seeds and leaves of E. velutina revealed 42 alkaloids by metabolome tools. Based on the combined evidence, 24 gene candidates were put together in a putative pathway leading to the singular alkaloid diversity of this species. Conclusion: These results contribute by indicating potential biotechnological targets Erythrina alkaloids biosynthesis as well as to improve molecular databases with omic data from a non-model medicinal plant. Furthermore, they reveal an interesting chemical diversity in Erythrina velutina harvested in Caatinga. Last, but not least, this data may also contribute to tap Brazilian biodiversity in a rational and sustainable fashion, promoting adequate public policies for preservation and protection of sensitive areas within the Caatinga

Brazilian Research Consortium on Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders guidelines for the treatment of adult obsessive-compulsive disorder. Part II: cognitive-behavioral therapy

Objectives: To summarize evidence-based cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) treatment and propose clinical interventions for adult patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: The literature on CBT interventions for adult OCD, including BT and exposure and response prevention, was systematically reviewed to develop updated clinical guidelines for clinicians, providing comprehensive details about the necessary procedures for the CBT protocol. We searched the literature from 2013-2020 in five databases (PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, PsycINFO, and Lilacs) regarding study design, primary outcome measures, publication type, and language. Selected articles were assessed for quality with validated tools. Treatment recommendations were classified according to levels of evidence developed by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association. Results: We examined 44 new studies used to update the 2013 American Psychiatric Association guidelines. High-quality evidence supports CBT with exposure and response prevention techniques as a first-line treatment for OCD. Protocols for Internet-delivered CBT have also proven efficacious for adults with OCD. Conclusion: High-quality scientific evidence supports the use of CBT with exposure and response prevention to treat adults with OCD

Obsessive-compulsive dimensions in sibling pairs concordant for the Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) diagnose

INTRODUÇÃO: O Transtorno Obsessivo-Compulsivo (TOC) é um transtorno heterogêneo de etiologia desconhecida. Um mesmo paciente pode ter diversos sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos (SOC) e diferentes pacientes podem ter SOC completamente diferentes entre si. Esta heterogeneidade reduz as chances de identificação de genes específicos relacionados ao transtorno. Diversos estudos utilizaram abordagens categoriais ou dimensionais com o objetivo de caracterizar subgrupos mais homogêneos de pacientes. O estudo de pares de irmãos pode contribuir com a caracterização fenotípica de componentes familiais do TOC. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a correlação e concordância de algumas características clínicas do TOC em pares de irmãos concordantes para o diagnóstico de TOC: idade de início dos SOC, expressão de transtornos de tiques (TTs) e expressão de dimensões de SOC. MÉTODO: Quarenta irmãos com TOC (18 famílias) foram avaliados por psiquiatras e psicólogos. Famílias com dois ou mais irmãos com diagnóstico de TOC foram incluídas. Estas famílias foram indicadas por clínicas especializadas, pertencentes ao Consórcio Brasileiro de Transtorno Obsessivo-Compulsivo (http://www.protoc.com.br/portal/ctoc/), onde ao menos um dos irmãos recebia tratamento. A escala Yale Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale Checklist foi utilizada para avaliar presença e gravidade dos SOC. O diagnóstico de TOC foi feito de acordo com os critérios do DSM-IV. A idade de início dos SOC foi definida como a idade em que o paciente ou membro familiar recorda que ocorreu o primeiro SOC. O teste qui-quadrado foi utilizado para avaliar concordância de TTs em pares de irmãos com TOC, considerando-se como base para o valor esperado a prevalência de TTs relatada na literatura (cerca de 30%). Foram feitas correlações intraclasse para os escores de cada um dos quatro fatores de SOC estudados e para as idades de início dos SOC. Quatro fatores de SOC foram analisados: obsessões de agressão, sexuais, religiosas, somáticas e compulsões de checagem (Fator 1); obsessões e compulsões de simetria, repetição, contagem e ordem e arranjo (Fator 2); obsessões de contaminação e compulsões de limpeza (Fator 3); obsessões e compulsões de colecionamento (Fator 4). RESULTADOS: Dos 40 irmãos com TOC avaliados, 52% deles eram do sexo masculino. A idade média dos pacientes quando realizadas as entrevistas foi de 29,65 ± 11,49 anos. A idade média do início dos SOC foi de 11,83 ± 7,56 anos. Foi observada correlação significativa das idades de início dos SOC (p=0,005) nos pares de irmãos com TOC. Quatorze pacientes (35%) tinham diagnóstico de TTs. Não foi encontrada concordância da presença de TTs nos pares de irmãos com TOC. Foi encontrada correlação positiva significativa do Fator 3 (obsessões de contaminação e compulsões de limpeza) (ICC=0,74; p=0,002) quando os pares de irmãos eram concordantes para o sexo masculino. Quando os pares de irmãos eram concordantes para o sexo feminino, foi encontrada correlação positiva significativa do Fator 4 (obsessões e compulsões de colecionamento) (ICC=0,76; p=0,01). Não foram encontradas quaisquer outras correlações significativas dos fatores de SOC. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem que fatores familiais e ligados ao sexo contribuam para expressão de componentes do fenótipo do TOC, como idade de início e dimensões específicas de SOC.BACKGROUND: Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a heterogeneous disorder of unknown etiology. Obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) vary from one patient to another and even from time to time in the same patient. The heterogeneity of OCD reduces the chance of finding specific genes related to the disorder. Categorical and dimensional approaches have been used in many studies in attempts to identify more phenotypic homogeneous subgroups. Phenotypic studies of affected sib-pairs may help to characterize familial components of the OCD phenotype. The aim of this study is to determine whether sibling pairs affected with OCD are similar in age at onset of OCS, presence of tic disorders (TDs), and obsessive-compulsive symptom dimensions. METHODS: Forty OCD siblings (18 families) were evaluated by expert psychiatrists or psychologists. Families with two or more siblings affected with OCD were recruited from several specialized OCD clinics where at least one sibling was been treated. All of the clinics involved belonged to the Brazilian OCD Research Consortium (http://www.protoc.com.br/portal/ctoc/). The Yale Brown Obsessive- Compulsive Scale Checklist was used to assess OCS and the severity of OCD. The OCD diagnoses were made according to the DSM-IV. Age at onset was defined as the age that the patient, or a family member, remembered as the beginning of the OCS. The chi-square test was used to assess concordance of TD presence within sibling pairs based on the TD frequency reported in the literature (30%).Intraclass correlations were determined for the scores of all four evaluated factors and for the ages at onset of OCS. Four specific OCS factors were analyzed in the present study: aggressive, sexual, religious and somatic obsessions together with checking compulsions (Factor 1); symmetry, repeating, counting and ordering /arranging symptoms (Factor 2); contamination obsessions and cleaning compulsions (Factor 3); and hoarding symptoms (Factor 4). RESULTS: Among the siblings evaluated 52% were male, and the mean age at the time of interview was 29.65 ± 11.49 years. The mean age at onset of OCS was 11.83 ± 7.56 years. Age at onset of OCS correlated positively and significantly between the two members of each sibling pair (p=0.005). Fourteen patients (35%) were diagnosed with TDs. There was no concordance of the TD presence within the sibling pairs. When siblings were male, there was a significant sibling correlation in the contamination obsessions/cleaning compulsions dimension (ICC=0.74; p=0.002). Similarly, when both siblings were female, they were comparable in the hoarding obsessions/compulsions dimension (ICC=0.76; p=0.01). No other significant correlations were found. CONCLUSION: Familial factors seem to contribute to specific OCD phenotypic components such as age at onset of OCS and specific dimensions. The obvious influence of gender is as yet unexplained

Characterization of children and adolescents at risk for the development of obsessive-compulsive disorder

Objetivos. Esta tese vai ao encontro da proposta da psiquiatria do desenvolvimento, investigando sintomas clínicos, fatores de risco e potenciais endofenótipos que possam colaborar com diagnósticos precoces e o desenvolvimento de estratégias de prevenção. Métodos. O primeiro estudo relata a investigação e caracterização de uma amostra de crianças e adolescentes em risco para o desenvolvimento do transtorno obsessivocompulsivo (TOC). Para este propósito, 66 crianças e adolescentes com um familiar de primeiro grau com diagnóstico de TOC tiveram seus dados analisados de acordo com a presença ou ausência de sintomas obsessivocompulsivos. O segundo estudo consistiu no desenvolvimento e testagem de um paradigma dot probe de viés atencional relacionado a sintomas do TOC e na sua investigação enquanto possível endofenótipo do transtorno. Para tanto, três grupos de crianças foram selecionados: crianças com diagnóstico de TOC, em alto risco para o desenvolvimento de TOC (com presença de sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos e história familiar de primeiro grau de TOC) e crianças controle. O paradigma incluiu pares de estímulos aversivos (ativos) e neutros das dimensões de sintomas de contaminação/limpeza e simetria apresentados em 500 ms e 1250 ms. Resultados. O primeiro estudo obteve três resultados importantes. Primeiro, a amostra de crianças com familiar de primeiro grau com TOC apresentou elevada prevalência de sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos, confirmando a familiadade do transtorno. Segundo, crianças com e sem sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos apresentam prevalências diferentes de comportamento coercivo relacionados ou não aos sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos. Terceiro, familiares de crianças com sintomas obsessivo-compulsivos apresentaram mais frequentemente a dimensão de sintomas de contaminação/limpeza do que familiares de primeiro grau de crianças sem sintomas obsessivo-compulsivo. O segundo estudo teve como principais resultados: 1) crianças com TOC apresentam índices mais altos de desconforto pelos estímulos ativos comparados aos dos outros dois grupos de crianças, indicando que o paradigma é eficiente na sua avaliação; 2) a avaliação dos estímulos ativos da dimensão de contaminação/limpeza está associada à presença de seus respectivos sintomas no sujeito; 3) o grupo de crianças com TOC apresentou viés atencional na direção do estímulo aversivo em todas as quatro condições do paradigma (contaminação/limpeza e simetria com 500ms e 1250ms); 4) crianças com TOC apresentaram viés atencional maior do que crianças em risco para o desenvolvimento de TOC e controles sucessivamente, sempre na direção do estímulo aversivo exceto, no paradigma de simetria de 500ms; 5) O viés atencional na direção do estímulo ativo de contaminação no paradigma de 1250ms está associado à presença da dimensão de sintomas de contaminação. Conclusões. Os achados aqui descritos reforçam a familialidade do TOC, contribuem com achados de características associadas ao transtorno na infância e adolescência, reforçam a presença de um marcador de risco importante para o desenvolvimento de estratégias de detecção e prevenção precoces. Os resultados encontrados têm importantes implicações para a melhora do conhecimento de fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento do TOC e características associadas, que devem ser considerados em contextos clínicos e de pesquisaObjective. This thesis goes in line with the concept of developmental psychiatry investigating clinical symptoms and risk factors that can further provide earlier diagnoses and preventive interventions. Methods. The first study reports the investigation and characterization of a sample of children and adolescents at risk for the development of obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). For this purpose, 66 children and siblings with a first degree relative diagnosed with OCD had their clinical data analyzed according to the presence of obsessive compulsive symptoms. The second study consisted on the development and testing of an attentional bias dot probe paradigm with OCD relevant content to evaluate pediatric patients with OCD and further investigate it as a possible phenotype of OCD. For this purpose three groups of children were selected: 1) children with OCD; 2) children at risk for OCD (presenting obsessive compulsive symptoms and with a first degree relative diagnosed with OCD); 3) control group (children with none of the Axis I Psychiatric diagnoses). The paradigm included pairs of aversive (active) and neutral stimulus of contamination/cleaning and symmetry symptom dimensions and had two different time presentations of the stimulus, 500 and 1250 milliseconds. Results. The first study had with tree main findings. First, our sample of children with a first degree affected with OCD had a very high prevalence of obsessive-compulsive symptoms, confirming the familiality of the disorder. Second, children with and without obsessive-compulsive symptoms presented different rates of coercive behaviours, that can be related or not to obsessive-compulsive symptoms. Third, first degree relatives of children who had obsessive compulsive symptoms had significantly more contamination/cleaning dimension of obsessive compulsive symptoms than relatives of children without obsessive compulsive symptoms. The second study had the following main findings: 1) children with OCD had higher rates of discomfort caused by active stimulus than the other two groups of children, indicating that the paradigm is efficient for its purpose; 2) the evaluation of active stimulus of the contamination/cleaning dimension is associated to the presence of its respective symptoms; 3) the group of children with OCD had attentional bias towards the active stimulus in all four conditions of the paradigm (cleaning/contamination and symmetry in 500ms and 1250ms); 4) children with OCD had higher attention bias than children at risk and controls always towards the active stimulus with the exception of the 500 ms symmetry paradigm; 5) the attentional bias towards the active stimulus in the 1250 ms contamination paradigm is associated to the presence of symptoms of the contaminations dimension. Conclusions. The results reinforce the familiality of OCD, contributing with findings of associated characteristics to the disorder in childhood and adolescence and reinforcing the presence of an important risk marker for the development of strategies of early detection and prevention. The results have important implications to the improvement of the knowledge of OCD and associated characteristics, which should be considered in clinical and research context

Fatty acid is a potential agent for bone tissue induction : In vitro and in vivo approach

Our hypothesis was to investigate the fatty acid potential as a bone induction factor. In vitro and in vivo studies were performed to evaluate this approach. Oleic acid was used in a 0.5 wt.% concentration. Polycaprolactone was used as the polymeric matrix by combining solvent-casting and particulate-leaching techniques, with a final porosity of 70 wt.%, investigated by SEM images. Contact angle measurements were produced to investigate the influence of oleic acid on polycaprolactone chains. Cell culture was performed using adipocyte-derived stem cells to evaluate biocompatibility and bioactivity properties. In addition, in vivo studies were performed to evaluate the induction potential of oleic acid addition. Adipocyte-derived stem cells were used to provide differentiation after 21 days of culture. Likewise, information were obtained with in vivo data and cellular invagination was observed on both scaffolds (polycaprolactone and polycaprolactone /oleic acid); interestingly, the scaffold with oleic acid addition demonstrated that cellular migrations are not related to the surrounding tissue, indicating bioactive potential. Our hypothesis is that fatty acid may be used as a potential induction factor for bone tissue engineering. The study’s findings indicate oleic acid as a possible agent for bone induction, according to data on cell differentiation, proliferation, and migration2421817651771FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESP2009/54546-9; 2013/19472-0The authors thank Espac¸o da Escrita- Coordenadoria Geral da Universidade – UNICAMP- for the language services provided. This work was funded by the São Paulo Research Foundation (Fapesp 2009/54546-9 and 2013/19472-0) and INCT-Biofabri

Obsessive-compulsive symptoms in children with first degree relatives diagnosed with obsessive-compulsive disorder

Objective: A first-degree relative affected by obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) in childhood is an important risk factor for developing the disorder in adulthood. The relationship between a family history of OCD and the presence of OCS and its correlates in childhood is not well established. Methods: A total of 66 children whose parents or siblings have been diagnosed with OCD were assessed for the presence of OCS and clinical correlates. Results: Three children (4.5%) were reported to have received an OCD diagnosis and another 26 (39.4%) were identified as having OCS. Children with OCS had higher rates of coercive behavior and came from families with lower socioeconomic status. Contamination/cleaning dimension symptoms in the proband were associated with OCS in the assessed children. Conclusion: OCS are frequent among family members of individuals with OCD and are associated with socioeconomic status, coercive behaviors and proband contamination/cleaning symptoms. Future longitudinal studies should test the risk of developing OCD in association with these characteristics