Time series prediction via aggregation : an oracle bound including numerical cost

We address the problem of forecasting a time series meeting the Causal Bernoulli Shift model, using a parametric set of predictors. The aggregation technique provides a predictor with well established and quite satisfying theoretical properties expressed by an oracle inequality for the prediction risk. The numerical computation of the aggregated predictor usually relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method whose convergence should be evaluated. In particular, it is crucial to bound the number of simulations needed to achieve a numerical precision of the same order as the prediction risk. In this direction we present a fairly general result which can be seen as an oracle inequality including the numerical cost of the predictor computation. The numerical cost appears by letting the oracle inequality depend on the number of simulations required in the Monte Carlo approximation. Some numerical experiments are then carried out to support our findings

Speckle observations with PISCO in Merate - II. Astrometric measurements of visual binaries in 2004

International audienceWe present relative astrometric measurements of visual binaries taken during the second semester of 2004 with the Pupil Interferometry Speckle camera and Coronagraph (PISCO) at the 1-m Zeiss telescope of the Brera Astronomical Observatory, in Merate, Italy. We performed 207 new observations of 194 objects with angular separations in the range 0.1-4.0 arcsec and an accuracy better than ~0.01 arcsec. Our sample contains orbital couples as well as binaries whose motion is still uncertain. Our purpose is to improve the accuracy of the orbits and constrain the masses of the components. Those measurements show that the orbit of ADS 15115 needs to be revised; we propose a new orbit for this object

Detecting modules in dense weighted networks with the Potts method

We address the problem of multiresolution module detection in dense weighted networks, where the modular structure is encoded in the weights rather than topology. We discuss a weighted version of the q-state Potts method, which was originally introduced by Reichardt and Bornholdt. This weighted method can be directly applied to dense networks. We discuss the dependence of the resolution of the method on its tuning parameter and network properties, using sparse and dense weighted networks with built-in modules as example cases. Finally, we apply the method to data on stock price correlations, and show that the resulting modules correspond well to known structural properties of this correlation network.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. v2: 1 figure added, 1 reference added, minor changes. v3: 3 references added, minor change

Speckle observations with PISCO in Merate - III. Astrometric measurements of visual binaries in 2005 and scale calibration with a grating mask

International audienceWe present relative astrometric measurements of visual binaries made during the first semester of 2005, with the Pupil Interferometry Speckle Camera and Coronagraph (PISCO) at the 102-cm Zeiss telescope of the Brera Astronomical Observatory, in Merate. We performed 214 new observations of 192 objects, with angular separations in the range 0.2-4.3arcsec, and with an average accuracy of 0.01arcsec. Most of the position angles could be determined without the usual 180° ambiguity, and their mean error is . Our sample contains orbital couples as well as binaries whose motion is still uncertain. The purpose of this long-term programme is to improve the accuracy of the orbits and constrain the masses of the components. For the first time with PISCO, the astrometric calibration was made with a grating mask mounted at the entrance of the telescope. The advantage of this procedure is to provide a reliable and fully independent scale determination. We have found two possible new triple systems: ADS 7871 and KUI 15. We propose a preliminary orbit for ADS 4208

Inferring phytoplankton carbon and eco-physiological rates from diel cycles of spectral particulate beam-attenuation coefficient

The diurnal fluctuations in solar irradiance impose a fundamental frequency on ocean biogeochemistry. Observations of the ocean carbon cycle at these frequencies are rare, but could be considerably expanded by measuring and interpreting the inherent optical properties. A method is presented to analyze diel cycles in particulate beam-attenuation coefficient (<i>c</i><sub>p</sub>) measured at multiple wavelengths. The method is based on fitting observations with a size-structured population model coupled to an optical model to infer the particle size distribution and physiologically relevant parameters of the cells responsible for the measured diel cycle in <i>c</i><sub>p</sub>. Results show that the information related to size and contained in the spectral data can be exploited to independently estimate growth and loss rates during the day and night. In addition, the model can characterize the population of particles affecting the diel variability in <i>c</i><sub>p</sub>. Application of this method to spectral <i>c</i><sub>p</sub> measured at a station in the oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea suggests that most of the observed variations in <i>c</i><sub>p</sub> can be ascribed to a synchronized population of cells with an equivalent spherical diameter around 4.6±1.5 μm. The inferred carbon biomass of these cells was about 5.2–6.0 mg m<sup>−3</sup> and accounted for approximately 10% of the total particulate organic carbon. If successfully validated, this method may improve our in situ estimates of primary productivity