Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies

Integrative genomics reveals pathogenic mediator of valproate-induced neurodevelopmental disability

Prenatal exposure to the anti-seizure medication sodium valproate (VPA) is associated with an increased risk of adverse postnatal neurodevelopmental outcomes, including lowered intellectual ability, autism spectrum disorder and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. In this study, we aimed to clarify the molecular mechanisms underpinning the neurodevelopmental consequences of gestational VPA exposure using integrative genomics. First, we assessed the effect of gestational VPA on fetal brain gene expression using a validated rat model of valproate teratogenicity that mimics the human scenario of chronic oral valproate treatment during pregnancy at doses which are therapeutically relevant to the treatment of epilepsy. Two different rat strains were studied - inbred Genetic Absence Epilepsy Rats from Strasbourg (GAERS), a model of genetic generalized epilepsy, and inbred Non-Epileptic Control rats. Female rats were fed standard chow or VPA mixed in standard chow for 2 weeks prior to conception and then mated with same-strain males. In the VPA-exposed rats maternal oral treatment was continued throughout pregnancy. Fetuses were extracted via C-section on gestational day 21 (one day prior to birth) and fetal brains were snap frozen and genome-wide gene expression data generated. We found that gestational VPA exposure via chronic maternal oral dosing was associated with substantial drug-induced differential gene expression in the pup brains, including dysregulated splicing, and observed that this occurred in the absence of evidence for significant neuronal gain or loss. The functional consequences of VPA-induced gene expression were explored using pathway analysis and integration with genetic risk data for psychiatric disease and behavioural traits. The set of genes down-regulated by VPA in the pup brains were significantly enriched for pathways related to neurodevelopment and synaptic function, and significantly enriched for heritability to human intelligence, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Our results provide a mechanistic link between chronic fetal VPA exposure and neurodevelopmental disability mediated by VPA-induced transcriptional dysregulation

Role for the thromboxane A 2 receptor β-isoform in the pathogenesis of intrauterine growth restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is a pathology of pregnancy that results in failure of the fetus to reach its genetically determined growth potential. In developed nations the most common cause of IUGR is impaired placentation resulting from poor trophoblast function, which reduces blood flow to the fetoplacental unit, promotes hypoxia and enhances production of bioactive lipids (TXA 2 and isoprostanes) which act through the thromboxane receptor (TP). TP activation has been implicated as a pathogenic factor in pregnancy complications, including IUGR; however, the role of TP isoforms during pregnancy is poorly defined. We have determined that expression of the human-specific isoform of TP (TPβ) is increased in placentae from IUGR pregnancies, compared to healthy pregnancies. Overexpression of TPα enhanced trophoblast proliferation and syncytialisation. Conversely, TPβ attenuated these functions and inhibited migration. Expression of the TPβ transgene in mice resulted in growth restricted pups and placentae with poor syncytialisation and diminished growth characteristics. Together our data indicate that expression of TPα mediates normal placentation; however, TPβ impairs placentation, and promotes the development of IUGR, and represents an underappreciated pathogenic factor in humans

A nonsmooth frictional contact formulation for multibody system dynamics

We present a new node-to-face frictional contact element for the simulation of the nonsmooth dynamics of systems composed of rigid and flexible bodies connected by kinematic joints. The equations of motion are integrated using a nonsmooth generalized-α time integration scheme and the frictional contact problem is formulated using a mixed approach, based on an augmented Lagrangian technique and a Coulomb friction law. The numerical results are independent of any user-defined penalty parameter for the normal or tangential component of the forces and, the bilateral and the unilateral constraints are exactly fulfilled both at position and velocity levels. Finally, the robustness and the performance of the proposed algorithm are demonstrated by solving several numerical examples of nonsmooth mechanical systems involving frictional contact.Fil: Galvez, Javier. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Cavalieri, Federico José. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones en Métodos Computacionales. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Centro de Investigaciones en Métodos Computacionales; ArgentinaFil: Cosimo, Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones en Métodos Computacionales. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Centro de Investigaciones en Métodos Computacionales; Argentina. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Brüls, Olivier. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Cardona, Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones en Métodos Computacionales. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Centro de Investigaciones en Métodos Computacionales; Argentin

Use of low-dose oral theophylline as an adjunct to inhaled corticosteroids in preventing exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and health-care costs. An incomplete response to the anti-inflammatory effects of inhaled corticosteroids is present in COPD. Preclinical work indicates that 'low dose' theophylline improves steroid responsiveness. The Theophylline With Inhaled Corticosteroids (TWICS) trial investigates whether the addition of 'low dose' theophylline to inhaled corticosteroids has clinical and cost-effective benefits in COPD. METHOD/DESIGN: TWICS is a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial conducted in primary and secondary care sites in the UK. The inclusion criteria are the following: an established predominant respiratory diagnosis of COPD (post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in first second/forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC] of less than 0.7), age of at least 40 years, smoking history of at least 10 pack-years, current inhaled corticosteroid use, and history of at least two exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics or oral corticosteroids in the previous year. A computerised randomisation system will stratify 1424 participants by region and recruitment setting (primary and secondary) and then randomly assign with equal probability to intervention or control arms. Participants will receive either 'low dose' theophylline (Uniphyllin MR 200 mg tablets) or placebo for 52 weeks. Dosing is based on pharmacokinetic modelling to achieve a steady-state serum theophylline of 1-5 mg/l. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg once daily (or placebo once daily) will be taken by participants who do not smoke or participants who smoke but have an ideal body weight (IBW) of not more than 60 kg. A dose of theophylline MR 200 mg twice daily (or placebo twice daily) will be taken by participants who smoke and have an IBW of more than 60 kg. Participants will be reviewed at recruitment and after 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is the total number of participant-reported COPD exacerbations requiring oral corticosteroids or antibiotics during the 52-week treatment period. DISCUSSION: The demonstration that 'low dose' theophylline increases the efficacy of inhaled corticosteroids in COPD by reducing the incidence of exacerbations is relevant not only to patients and clinicians but also to health-care providers, both in the UK and globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27066620 was registered on Sept. 19, 2013, and the first subject was randomly assigned on Feb. 6, 2014

Characterisation of Peptide Microarrays for Studying Antibody-Antigen Binding Using Surface Plasmon Resonance Imagery

BACKGROUND: Non-specific binding to biosensor surfaces is a major obstacle to quantitative analysis of selective retention of analytes at immobilized target molecules. Although a range of chemical antifouling monolayers has been developed to address this problem, many macromolecular interactions still remain refractory to analysis due to the prevalent high degree of non-specific binding. We describe how we use the dynamic process of the formation of self assembling monolayers and optimise physical and chemical properties thus reducing considerably non-specific binding and allowing analysis of specific binding of analytes to immobilized target molecules. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We illustrate this approach by the production of specific protein arrays for the analysis of interactions between the 65kDa isoform of human glutamate decarboxylase (GAD65) and a human monoclonal antibody. Our data illustrate that we have effectively eliminated non-specific interactions with the surface containing the immobilised GAD65 molecules. The findings have several implications. First, this approach obviates the dubious process of background subtraction and gives access to more accurate kinetic and equilibrium values that are no longer contaminated by multiphase non-specific binding. Second, an enhanced signal to noise ratio increases not only the sensitivity but also confidence in the use of SPR to generate kinetic constants that may then be inserted into van't Hoff type analyses to provide comparative DeltaG, DeltaS and DeltaH values, making this an efficient, rapid and competitive alternative to ITC measurements used in drug and macromolecular-interaction mechanistic studies. Third, the accuracy of the measurements allows the application of more intricate interaction models than simple Langmuir monophasic binding. CONCLUSIONS: The detection and measurement of antibody binding by the type 1 diabetes autoantigen GAD65 represents an example of an antibody-antigen interaction where good structural, mechanistic and immunological data are available. Using SPRi we were able to characterise the kinetics of the interaction in greater detail than ELISA/RIA methods. Furthermore, our data indicate that SPRi is well suited to a multiplexed immunoassay using GAD65 proteins, and may be applicable to other biomarkers

Small RNA analysis in Sindbis virus infected human HEK293 cells

In contrast to the defence mechanism of RNA interference (RNAi) in plants and invertebrates, its role in the innate response to virus infection of mammals is a matter of debate. Since RNAi has a well-established role in controlling infection of the alphavirus Sindbis virus (SINV) in insects, we have used this virus to investigate the role of RNAi in SINV infection of human cells

Into the UV: The Atmosphere of the Hot Jupiter HAT-P-41b Revealed

For solar system objects, ultraviolet spectroscopy has been critical in identifying sources of stratospheric heating and measuring the abundances of a variety of hydrocarbon and sulfur-bearing species, produced via photochemical mechanisms, as well as oxygen and ozone. To date, fewer than 20 exoplanets have been probed in this critical wavelength range (0.2–0.4 μm). Here we use data from Hubble's newly implemented WFC3 UVIS G280 grism to probe the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-41b in the ultraviolet through optical in combination with observations at infrared wavelengths. We analyze and interpret HAT-P-41b's 0.2–5.0 μm transmission spectrum using a broad range of methodologies including multiple treatments of data systematics as well as comparisons with atmospheric forward, cloud microphysical, and multiple atmospheric retrieval models. Although some analysis and interpretation methods favor the presence of clouds or potentially a combination of Na, VO, AlO, and CrH to explain the ultraviolet through optical portions of HAT-P-41b's transmission spectrum, we find that the presence of a significant H− opacity provides the most robust explanation. We obtain a constraint for the abundance of H−, $\mathrm{log}({{\rm{H}}}^{-})=-8.65\pm 0.62$, in HAT-P-41b's atmosphere, which is several orders of magnitude larger than predictions from equilibrium chemistry for a ~1700–1950 K hot Jupiter. We show that a combination of photochemical and collisional processes on hot hydrogen-dominated exoplanets can readily supply the necessary amount of H− and suggest that such processes are at work in HAT-P-41b and the atmospheres of many other hot Jupiters

BASS. XXXV. The MBH-σ* Relation of 105 Month Swift-BAT Type 1 AGNs

We present two independent measurements of stellar velocity dispersions (sigma(star)) from the Ca II H+K lambda 3969, 3934 and Mg I b lambda 5183, 5172, 5167 region (3880-5550 angstrom) and the calcium triplet region (8350-8750 angstrom) for 173 hard X-ray-selected Type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGNs; z <= 0.08) from the 105 month Swift-BAT catalog. We construct one of the largest samples of local Type 1 AGNs that have both single-epoch virial black hole mass (M-BH) estimates and sigma(star) measurements obtained from high spectral resolution data, allowing us to test the usage of such methods for supermassive black hole studies. We find that the two independent sigma(star) measurements are highly consistent with each other, with an average offset of only 0.002 +/- 0.001 dex. Comparing M-BH estimates based on broad emission lines and stellar velocity dispersion measurements, we find that the former is systematically lower by approximate to 0.12 dex. Consequently, Eddington ratios estimated through broad-line MBH determinations are similarly biased (but in the opposite way). We argue that the discrepancy is driven by extinction in the broad-line region. We also find an anticorrelation between the offset from the M-BH-sigma(star) relation and the Eddington ratio. Our sample of Type 1 AGNs shows a shallower M-BH-sigma(star) relation (with a power-law exponent of approximate to 3.5) compared with that of inactive galaxies (with a power-law exponent of approximate to 4.5), confirming earlier results obtained from smaller samples