Predicting Bison Migration out of Yellowstone National Park Using Bayesian Models

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990–2009 in a hierarchal Bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies

Sample size considerations for trials using cerebral white matter hyperintensity progression as an intermediate outcome at 1 year after mild stroke: Results of a prospective cohort study

Background: White matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are commonly seen on in brain imaging and are associated with stroke and cognitive decline. Therefore, they may provide a relevant intermediate outcome in clinical trials. WMH can be measured as a volume or visually on the Fazekas scale. We investigated predictors of WMH progression and design of efficient studies using WMH volume and Fazekas score as an intermediate outcome. Methods: We prospectively recruited 264 patients with mild ischaemic stroke and measured WMH volume, Fazekas score, age and cardiovascular risk factors at baseline and 1 year. We modelled predictors of WMH burden at 1 year and used the results in sample size calculations for hypothetical randomised controlled trials with different analysis plans and lengths of follow-up. Results: Follow-up WMH volume was predicted by baseline WMH: a 0.73-ml (95% CI 0.65-0.80, p < 0.0001) increase per 1-ml baseline volume increment, and a 2.93-ml increase (95% CI 1.76-4.10, p < 0.0001) per point on the Fazekas scale. Using a mean difference of 1 ml in WMH volume between treatment groups, 80% power and 5% alpha, adjusting for all predictors and 2-year follow-up produced the smallest sample size (n = 642). Other study designs produced samples sizes from 2054 to 21,270. Sample size calculations using Fazekas score as an outcome with the same power and alpha, as well as an OR corresponding to a 1-ml difference, were sensitive to assumptions and ranged from 2504 to 18,886. Conclusions: Baseline WMH volume and Fazekas score predicted follow-up WMH volume. Study size was smallest using volumes and longer-term follow-up, but this must be balanced against resources required to measure volumes versus Fazekas scores, bias due to dropout and scanner drift. Samples sizes based on Fazekas scores may be best estimated with simulation studies

Cell-to-cell variability in troponin I phosphorylation in a porcine model of pacing-induced heart failure

We tested the hypothesis that myocardial contractile protein phosphorylation and the Ca2+ sensitivity of force production are dysregulated in a porcine model of pacing-induced heart failure (HF). The level of protein kinase A (PKA)-dependent cardiac troponin I (TnI) phosphorylation was lower in the myocardium surrounding the pacing electrode (pacing site) of the failing left ventricle (LV) than in the controls. Immunohistochemical assays of the LV pacing site pointed to isolated clusters of cardiomyocytes exhibiting a reduced level of phosphorylated TnI. Flow cytometry on isolated and permeabilized cardiomyocytes revealed a significantly larger cell-to-cell variation in the level of TnI phosphorylation of the LV pacing site than in the opposite region in HF or in either region in the controls: the interquartile range (IQR) on the distribution histogram of relative TnI phosphorylation was wider at the pacing site (IQR = 0.53) than that at the remote site of HF (IQR = 0.42; P = 0.0047) or that of the free wall of the control animals (IQR = 0.36; P = 0.0093). Additionally, the Ca2+ sensitivities of isometric force production were higher and appeared to be more variable in single permeabilized cardiomyocytes from the HF pacing site than in the healthy myocardium. In conclusion, the level of PKA-dependent TnI phosphorylation and the Ca2+ sensitivity of force production exhibited a high cell-to-cell variability at the LV pacing site, possibly explaining the abnormalities of the regional myocardial contractile function in a porcine model of pacing-induced HF

Amniotic fluid deficiency and congenital abnormalities both influence fluctuating asymmetry in developing limbs of human deceased fetuses

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA), as an indirect measure of developmental instability (DI), has been intensively studied for associations with stress and fitness. Patterns, however, appear heterogeneous and the underlying causes remain largely unknown. One aspect that has received relatively little attention in the literature is the consequence of direct mechanical effects on asymmetries. The crucial prerequisite for FA to reflect DI is that environmental conditions on both sides should be identical. This condition may be violated during early human development if amniotic fluid volume is deficient, as the resulting mechanical pressures may increase asymmetries. Indeed, we showed that limb bones of deceased human fetuses exhibited increased asymmetry, when there was not sufficient amniotic fluid (and, thus, space) in the uterine cavity. As amniotic fluid deficiency is known to cause substantial asymmetries and abnormal limb development, these subtle asymmetries are probably at least in part caused by the mechanical pressures. On the other hand, deficiencies in amniotic fluid volume are known to be associated with other congenital abnormalities that may disturb DI. More specifically, urogenital abnormalities can directly affect/reduce amniotic fluid volume. We disentangled the direct mechanical effects on FA from the indirect effects of urogenital abnormalities, the latter presumably representing DI. We discovered that both factors contributed significantly to the increase in FA. However, the direct mechanical effect of uterine pressure, albeit statistically significant, appeared less important than the effects of urogenital abnormalities, with an effect size only two-third as large. We, thus, conclude that correcting for the relevant direct factors allowed for a representative test of the association between DI and stress, and confirmed that fetuses form a suitable model system to increase our understanding in patterns of FA and symmetry development.Research Fund of the University of Antwerp, mobility grant from the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO)

KRAS-mutation status in relation to colorectal cancer survival: the joint impact of correlated tumour markers.

Background:Mutations in the Kirsten Ras (KRAS) oncogene are common in colorectal cancer (CRC). The role of KRAS-mutation status as a prognostic factor, however, is unclear. We evaluated the relationship between KRAS-mutation status and CRC survival, considering heterogeneity in this association by tumour and patient characteristics.Methods:The population-based study included individuals diagnosed with CRC between 1998-2007 in Western Washington State. Tumour specimens were tested for KRAS exon 2 mutations, the BRAF p.V600E mutation, and microsatellite instability (MSI). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between KRAS-mutation status and disease-specific and overall survival. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, tumour site, stage, and MSI. We conducted additional analyses combining KRAS-mutation, BRAF-mutation, and MSI status.Results:Among 1989 cases, 31% had KRAS-mutated CRC. Kirsten Ras (KRAS)-mutated CRC was associated with poorer disease-specific survival (HR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.13-1.66). This association was not evident in cases who presented with distant-stage CRC. Cases with KRAS-wild-type/BRAF-wild-type/MSI-high CRC had the most favourable prognosis; those with CRC exhibiting a KRAS- or BRAF-mutation and no MSI had the poorest prognosis. Patterns were similar for overall survival.Conclusion:Kirsten Ras (KRAS)-mutated CRC was associated with statistically significantly poorer survival after diagnosis than KRAS-wild-type CRC

The area-based social patterning of injuries among 10 to 19 year olds Changes over time in the Stockholm County

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Area-based studies of childhood injuries strongly suggest that neighborhood socio-demographic and economic circumstances impact on various – though not all – types of injuries. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the stability over time of the association between area characteristics and childhood injuries of various causes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Register-based and ecological, the study encompassed Stockholm County's 138 parishes, and considered two time periods (1993–95; 2003–05). Two indices were measured: economic deprivation and social fragmentation, and parishes were allocated to their respective quintile on each index. Data on both unintentional and intentional injuries for children (boys and girls) aged 10–14 and 15–19 respectively were gathered from the County Council's hospital inpatient register. For each period and index, gender, age and cause-specific comparisons were made to assess the rate ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) of being injured using parishes belonging to the best index level as a comparison group. A series of simple and partial Pearson correlations were also calculated to assess the independent contribution of each index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Regardless of time period, there were rather few significant rate ratios and, when they occurred, there were both under and excess risks. For instance, in each period, boys from both age groups living in parishes with the highest levels of economic deprivation had lower rate of injury as a motor vehicle rider. Most strikingly, intentional injuries were more frequent during the second time period and in considerable excess among girls aged 15–19 from more economically deprived areas. Also, during that last period, none of the injury causes correlated significantly with the index of social fragmentation after adjustment for economic deprivation (partial correlation).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Over a ten-year period, differential economic deprivation among parishes has widened more than social fragmentation in Stockholm County. The correlation between those indices is high in both periods of time whilst the association between the levels of each index and injury rates varies depending on group of injuries or time period considered. It is of concern that intentional injuries have increased numerically and are significantly and positively correlated with economic deprivation (net of social fragmentation), in particular among girls.</p