Does Deep Tectonic Tremor Occur in the Central‐Eastern Mediterranean Basin?

Tectonic tremor has been observed at the roots of many fault systems around the Pacific rim, including convergent and transform plate boundaries. The extent to which deep tremor signals are prevalent along fault systems elsewhere, including the Mediterranean basin, has not yet been documented in detail. A body of evidence suggests that tremor triggered during the surface waves of teleseismic events may commonly occur where ambient tremor during episodic tremor and slip episodes occur, suggesting triggered tremor provides a useful tool to identify regions with ambient tremor. We perform a systematic search of triggered tremor associated with large teleseismic events between 2010 and 2020 at four major fault systems within the central-eastern Mediterranean basin, namely the Hellenic and Calabrian subduction zones, and the North Anatolian and Kefalonia transform faults. In addition, we search for ambient tremor during a slow slip event in the eastern Sea of Marmara along a secondary branch of the North Anatolian Fault, and two slow slip events beneath western Peloponnese (Hellenic Subduction Zone). We find no unambiguous evidence for deep triggered tremor, nor ambient tremor. The absence of triggered tremor at the Hellenic and Calabrian subduction zones supports an interpretation of less favorable conditions for tremorgenesis in the presence of old and cold slabs. The absence of tremor along the transform faults may be due to an absence of the conditions commonly promoting tremorgenesis in such settings, including high-fluid pressures and low-differential stresses between the down-dip limit of the seismogenic layer and the continental Moho

Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: the role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socio-economic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Zur Klimatologie der Station Jena

Long-term climate registrations are of great importance for climate modelling and prediction. The time series from Jena, where first whether observations were made in 1770, are therefore of special interest. For this work, the data from Jena covering the years from 1824 to 2000 have been completed and organized in a uniform format as far as possible. For further processing, the years 1879 to 2000 were chosen. Their homogenity was tested, occuring inhomogenities were correlated to the history of the station if possible. Finally, evolution of climate parameters in Jena was plotted and described, which in some cases turned out to be interesting. For example the annual mean of the daily minimum temperatures increased by 2.28 C during these years, while the annual means of the daily amplitudes of temperature decreased by 1.49 K. These trends are observed in general within the process of global warming. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(76) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

How much warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided?

This paper examines different concepts of a 'warming commitment' which is often used in various ways to describe or imply that a certain level of warming is irrevocably committed to over time frames such as the next 50 to 100 years, or longer. We review and quantify four different concepts, namely (1) a 'constant emission warming commitment', (2) a 'present forcing warming commitment', (3) a 'zero emission (geophysical) warming commitment' and (4) a 'feasible scenario warming commitment'. While a 'feasible scenario warming commitment' is probably the most relevant one for policy making, it depends centrally on key assumptions as to the technical, economic and political feasibility of future greenhouse gas emission reductions. This issue is of direct policy relevance when one considers that the 2003 global mean temperatures were 0.8 C above the pre-industrial mean and the European Union has a stated goal of limiting warming to 2 C above the pre-industrial mean: What is the risk that we are committed to overshoot 2 C? Based on the conventional IPCC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (1.5 C to 4.5 C) and more recent estimates, we found that a (1) constant emission scenario is virtually certain to overshoot 2 C with a central estimate of 2.0 C by 2100 (4.2 C by 2400). (2) While for the present radiative forcing levels it seems unlikely (risk between 0% and 30%, central estimate 1.1 C by 2100 and 1.2 C by 2400), the risk of overshooting is increasing rapidly if radiative forcing is stabilized much above today's levels (roughly 400ppm CO_2 equivalence) in the long-term. (3) From a geophysical point of view, if all human-induced emissions were ceased tomorrow, it seems 'exceptionally unlikely' that 2 C will be overshoot (central estimate: 0.7 C by 2100; 0.4 C by 2400). (4) Assuming future emissions according to the lower end of published mitigation scenarios provides (350ppm CO_2 eq to 450ppm CO_2 eq) the central temperature projections are 1.5 C to 2.1 C by 2100 (1.5 C to 2.0 C by 2400) with a risk to overshoot of 10% to 50% by 2100 and 1%-32% in equilibrium. Furthermore, we quantify the 'avoidable warming' to be 0.16-0.26 C for every 100GtC of avoided CO_2 emissions - based on a range of published mitigation scenarios. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR5801(93) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Modellierung der Temperatur- und Fluidgeschichte an der variszischen Front (Verviers-Synklinorium und Nordeifel)

Summary in DutchSIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RR 6134(98/07) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman