Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change

In addition to expanding agricultural land area and intensifying crop yields, increasing the global trade of agricultural products is one mechanism that humanity has adopted to meet the nutritional demands of a growing population. However, climate change will affect the distribution of agricultural production and, therefore, food supply and global markets. Here we quantify the structural changes in the global agricultural trade network under the two contrasting greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by coupling seven Global Gridded Crop Models and five Earth System Models to a global dynamic economic model. Our results suggest that global trade patterns of agricultural commodities may be significantly different from today's reality with or without carbon mitigation. More specifically, the agricultural trade network becomes more centralised under the high CO2 emissions scenario, with a few regions dominating the markets. Under the carbon mitigation scenario, the trade network is more distributed and more regions are involved as either importers or exporters. Theoretically, the more distributed the structure of a network, the less vulnerable the system is to climatic or institutional shocks. Mitigating CO2 emissions has the co-benefit of creating a more stable agricultural trade system that may be better able to reduce food insecurity

Noah's ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change

Background: Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia a

CERCAMENTO DO PARQUE FARROUPILHA - PORTO ALEGRE/RS – REDENÇÃO OU PRISÃO?

O fenômeno paisagístico é um processo cultural que se estabelece a partir da interação entre sujeitos e espaço percebido. A paisagem é um fenômeno vivo, contínuo, que expressa diferentes tempos, materialidades e arranjos sociais. É a metonímia de um território. Tendo isso em vista, um grupo de pesquisa interdisciplinar buscou experimentar diferentes ferramentas teórico-metodológicas ao realizar o exercício de intervir em uma determinada paisagem urbana, e assim, estimular o debate sobre as controvérsias que lhe são inerentes. A problemática escolhida foi a proposta de cercamento do Parque da Redenção, oficialmente denominado Parque Farroupilha, discutida na Câmara de Vereadores de Porto Alegre (RS) e na mídia local desde a década de 1990. Em uma área próxima ao lago Guaíba e ao Centro Histórico da cidade, os 40 hectares de área verde com diversos ambientes são um importante marco da paisagem de Porto Alegre. Caso fossem cercados, quais os aspectos da paisagem e outros que se agregam a ela que estariam sendo alterados? Como realizar uma intervenção para sensibilizar a população sobre as implicações do cercamento, ou não, do parque? Desde essas questões realizou-se o exercício, em 08 de novembro de 2014, cujos registros orientaram o debate e a produção deste texto e de um vídeo. Neste texto, procuramos inicialmente realizar um diagnóstico a paisagem estudada e a tensão evocada pela proposta de alterá-la mediante a instalação de uma cerca. A seguir relatamos uma intervenção realizada no local pelo grupo, como ferramenta metodológica para estimular diferentes reações e assim registrar as sensações e opiniões da população frente à alteração provocada naquela paisagem. Posteriormente, apresentamos reflexões sobre diferentes aspectos e implicações que o fechamento do parque poderá acarretar

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Replication Data for: Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade from climate change

In addition to expanding agricultural land area and intensifying crop yields, increasing the global trade of agricultural products is one mechanism that humanity has adopted to meet the nutritional demands of a growing population. However, climate change will affect the distribution of agricultural production and, therefore, food supply and global markets. Here we quantify the structural changes in the global agricultural trade network under the two contrasting greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by coupling seven Global Gridded Crop Models and five Earth System Models to a global dynamic economic model. Our results suggest that global trade patterns of agricultural commodities may be significantly different from today’s reality with or without carbon mitigation. More specifically, the agricultural trade network becomes more centralised under the high CO2 emissions scenario, with a few regions dominating the markets. Under the carbon mitigation scenario, the trade network is more distributed and more regions are involved as either importers or exporters. Theoretically, the more distributed the structure of a network, the less vulnerable the system is to climatic or institutional shocks. Mitigating CO2 emissions has the co-benefit of creating a more stable agricultural trade system that may be better able to reduce food insecurity

Spatial models for the quantification of ecosystem services across the Australian capital region

The recognition that human life depends on services provided by ecosystems has given rise to the field of ecosystem services. The main goal of the thesis is to develop a robust methodology for investigating how human interventions in the landscape affect ecosystem services, using as a case study the Australian Capital Region. The methods, which are based on remote sensing, spatial environmental modelling and geographic information systems, address the measurement, modelling and mapping of a comprehensive set of ecosystem services associated with major land cover types and land uses. These analyses are used to explore the synergies and trade-offs between these services across the Australian Capital Region. This thesis is structured in three sections. The first section introduces the aim and scope of the thesis; defines the concept of ecosystem services and its role as a communication tool for scientists, policy makers and stakeholders and describes the methods used by the thesis. The second section presents a land use and land cover classification for the Australian Capital Region. This classification underpins the quantification and mapping of five key ecosystem services in the remainder of the second section. These ecosystem services are: (i) carbon flows and storage; (ii) provision of food; (iii) biodiversity richness; (iv) water quality; and (v) recreation and ecotourism. The third section analyses the impacts of a hypothetical land use change scenario in which food production in the region is increased to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the importation of food - the so-called 'carbon miles' associated with the transport of food into the region from other parts of Australia and the world. The analysis assesses not only the impact on carbon stored in the region, but also the impact on other ecosystem services. The analysis also identifies what parts of the Australian Capital Region are most affected under the scenario outcomes. The thesis concludes with the key outcomes of this study. The methods presented in this thesis demonstrate that remote sensing, spatial environmental modelling and geographic information system are cost-effective tools to study and quantify ecosystem services at a regional scale. The results of this thesis could help in the promotion of sustainability in landscape and conservation planning

Changing Fortunes: A brief history of CSIRO funding from treasury and external sources, 1926 to 2015

The proportion of funds received by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organisation (CSIRO) from sources other than Treasury, referred to as external earnings, has been used by the Australian government as an indicator of CSIRO's engagement with industry and contribution to the economy. Two periods of decline in external earnings in the 1940s and the 1980s were followed by enquiries into the organisation's purpose and operation, amendments to CSIRO's enabling legislation and introduction of measures to improve industry engagement. After 1988 these measures included a 30% external earnings target. External earnings subsequently rose from 24% of total revenue in 1988/89 to average 36% over the period to 2014/15, peaking at 51% in 2011. Following a review in 2002 the target was removed due to its unintended consequences that included encouraging competition with private industry, placing emphasis on earning capacity over public good, and acting as a disincentive to innovation and collaboratio

Modelling the competition for land between traditional agriculture and biofuel production

Since the industrial revolution, human actions have driven rapid growth in greenhouse gas emissions, to the point where we have modified the Earth’s atmospheric composition and are changing the climate. This poses a significant threat to our economic development, prosperity and well-being. As fossil fuel burning accounts for 90% of all anthropogenic emissions, global mitigation efforts will mainly involve policies to target the production and consumption of fossil fuels. Introducing a carbon price on fossil fuel consumption, either in the form of a direct tax, or via a permit price under a cap and trade scheme, is widely considered to be an essential component of any cost-effective policy to decarbonise the economy. However, imposing a carbon price incurs ancillary costs to economic activities and can potentially reduce economic outputs. It is important to recognise that not all the burden of mitigation need to be assumed by reducing industrial emissions. Some mitigation can be achieved by producing Bio-fuels that can substitute fossil fuels and sequestering carbon to generate ‘negative’ emissions. However, the growth of Bio-fuels implies a new competitor for land that would be otherwise used for traditional agricultural activities, in particular, food production. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that the global food production must increase by 60% by 2050 in order to keep up with the pace of population growth. Therefore, the production of Bio-fuels for global climate mitigation will be primarily a compromise between the benefits of reducing global climate change and the costs of feeding the growing world population. Finding an optimal global balance between the uses of land for growth of Bio-fuels and production of food requires us to quantify the associated trade-offs. In this paper, we apply the dynamic version of the GTAP Bio-fuel model (GDyn-Bio) to investigate the climate and socioeconomic implications of B..

Monitoring the impact of feral horses on vegetation condition using remotely sensed fPAR: A case study in Australia's Alpine Parks

Throughout the world, feral horses (Equus caballus) are causing environmental degradation and a decline in ecological integrity. Evidence from scientific monitoring is needed to inform the public debate and help land managers make informed decisions. We used field observations of vegetation condition at a network of sites in the Australian Alps where horses were present or absent. The data were combined with the remotely -sensed fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR) and topographic condition. Vegetation condition was assessed in the field by rangers using a modified version of the Landscape Function Analysis (LFA) index. We found significant differences in the LFA index between sites where horses were present or absent. Sites with presence of horses have 10 per cent lower fPAR than sites with absence of horses. The results also indicated a significant correlation between LFA and fPAR. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that feral horses have a negative impact on the condition of Australian alpine vegetation. This study provides a useful and relatively cost-effective method for monitoring the impact of feral horses on native vegetation, and can be used to support decision making and management interventions.The Landscapes and Policy Research Hub was supported through funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program and involves researchers from the University of Tasmania (UTAS), The Australian National University (ANU), Murdoch University, The Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), Griffith University and Charles Sturt University (CSU)