A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity

The recent global recession and consequent slow recovery have revealed considerable heterogeneity in economic performance across countries and regions. This study aims at constructing a simple 'handy' composite Regional Resilience Indicator to measure and monitor economic system resilience at regional level in order to facilitate a common easily understanding of this complex and dynamic process. Our approach extends the existing theoretical framework and attributes to resilience a well-defined life cycle. The composite indicator weights have been attributed through weight elicitation techniques built upon principal component analysis.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

The renewal capacity of EU regions

The consequences of the crisis were not uniform among regions and countries of the European Union (EU). This study provides a conceptual framework for one of the major dimensions of resilience, i.e., the renewal capacity. The empirical application of our conceptual framework to GDP per capita, employment rate and productivity identifies some well-identified spatial patterns.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

The convergence process of the European regions: the role of Regional Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy

The study investigates the convergence of labour productivity in 204 NUTS2 regions of the EU-15 between 1995 and 2006. The main objective of our work was to assess whether and to what extent European Union (EU) policies (Regional Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy) have been effective in promoting economic growth and fostering the process of convergence of EU regions. These policies can have an asymmetric spatial impact, even if some concrete steps have been taken to avoid an excessive concentration of costs or benefits. To verify the effects of EU policies we compare different scenarios: with/without EU policies. Under a methodological profile, we adopt the Solovian model proposed by Mankiw et al. (1992). For the estimates we used an econometric approach based on spatial filters with characteristics similar to Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) in order to obtain consistent estimates of both the convergence parameters β and the impact of the conditioning variables, policy measures in particular. Our technique allows the estimation of different convergence rates for each region and management of both the presence of spatial spillovers and structural differences in the regional economies. The results indicate that global convergence rates are comparable to those obtained in some other studies, while local coefficients help to interpret the regional growth paths in a more realistic way. Finally, we utilise a quasi-experimental design, the Regression Discontinuity, for comparing the results of policy interventions, in terms of regional β-convergence rates, with a ‘counterfactual’ scenario

Spatial links in the analysis of voter turnout in European Parliamentary elections

This paper investigates the turnout in European Parliamentary elections by analyzing the four EP elections from 1999 to 2014 in 155 regions in EU-12. We use a number of econometric techniques that account for spatial dependence, also dealing with heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. The results confirm the role of spatial spillovers and indicate a significant role for GDP per capita, unemployment, age, institutional and electoral variables in influencing turnout. Finally, we disentangle the direct and indirect effects of the regional variable in affecting turnout

Detecting Dividing Lines in Turnout: Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in the 2012 US Presidential Election

US voters have been moving further and further apart, most notably in terms of partisanship. This trend has led to a strong geographic concentration of voters’ preferences. We look at how turnout shows a similar pattern by jointly addressing two features of the data: spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity of the observed units. Results obtained through a spatial lag regression tree procedure for the 2012 US presidential elections allow us to identify twelve groups of counties with similar characteristics. We fnd that (i) close counties behave similarly in terms of turnout; (ii) across various groups of counties, some variables have diferent statistical signifcance (or lack of it, such as household income and unemployment), and often diferent signs (such as the shares of adherents to congregations, Blacks, and Hispanics, and urban population). These results are useful for targeting geographically based groups in get out the vote operation

The determinants of subjective wellbeing in a developing country: The Ecuadorian case

Ecuador is a country characterized by deep social and territorial inequalities. In order to overcome this issue the national government setup in 2008 the National Plan of Wellbeing, a master plan whose objective is to put at the centre of the political action the wellbeing of the human being. This study aims to analyze the individual and contextual determinants of subjective wellbeing in Ecuador by examining a set of variables linked to the specific social and territorial characteristics of the country and to its main policy priorities. The assessment is based on econometric techniques able to account for the nested structure of the data, namely ordinary least squares and ordered logit with clustered standard errors and multilevel ordered logit. The results are robust and show that institutional trust, income, good housing conditions and education fosters wellbeing. On the other hand, being a woman, belonging to an ethnic minority or living in an oil dependent area is negatively correlated to subjective wellbeing. The policy implications range from an improvement of the institutional framework and redistributive system to better inclusion policies.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

Mafia murders in Palermo (1909-1992)

We present a heatmap performing a 2D kernel density estimation of Mafia murders in Palermo from 1909 through 1992.The map shows that the geographic pattern of the mafia murders has a high concentration in the centre of Palermo, the most vibrant area which corresponds to the geographical heart of the city, with a few isolated murders at the edge of the city. Individuals (such as politicians, entrepreneurs, police officers, judges, etc.) who have fought the criminal culture of the mafia have been mostly killed in the heart of the city

Dinámica de la pobreza multidimensional subnacional en los países en desarrollo: los casos de Ecuador y Uruguay

This paper studies deprivation dynamics at the subnational level, introducing a Local Multidimensional Poverty Index (“LMPI”), and focusing on multidimensional poverty in Ecuador and Uruguay between the last two available censuses, 1990–2010 and 1996–2011, respectively. As a first step, we construct the “LMPI” at the municipal level using microdata from both counties. Subsequently, we explore spatial and temporal dynamics through a set of tools such as thesalter graph, Moran’s I, Moran scatterplot, and spatial transition matrix. The results indicate that compared to Ecuador, Uruguay was initially in a better position in terms of the “LMPI”. However, Ecuador achieved a generalized reduction of the “LMPI” during the period of analysis, reaching levels close to that of Uruguay. Nevertheless, spatial persistence in the “LMPI” is observed.Este trabajo estudia la dinámica de la “deprivation” a nivel subnacional por medio de un indicador llamado Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional (“LMPI”), que cubre la pobreza multidimensional en Ecuador y Uruguay entre los dos censos 1990-2010 y 1996-2011. Primero, construimos el “LMP” a nivel municipal para-ambos países usando microdatos. Después, exploramos la dinámica espacial y temporal usando “salter graph”, test de Moran y “scatter plot” de Moran y la matriz de transición espacial. Resultados muestran que Uruguay está en mejor posición que Ecuador inicialmente, sin embargo, Ecuador mejoro significativamente durante el periodo de estudio. Ambos países presentan persistencias espaciales en el “LMPI”