Cladoceran birth and death rates estimates

I. Birth and death rates of natural cladoceran populations cannot be measured directly. Estimates of these population parameters must be calculated using methods that make assumptions about the form of population growth. These methods generally assume that the population has a stable age distribution. 2. To assess the effect of variable age distributions, we tested six egg ratio methods for estimating birth and death rates with data from thirty-seven laboratory populations of Daphnia pulicaria. The populations were grown under constant conditions, but the initial age distributions and egg ratios of the populations varied. Actual death rates were virtually zero, so the difference between the estimated and actual death rates measured the error in both birth and death rate estimates. 3. The results demonstrate that unstable population structures may produce large errors in the birth and death rates estimated by any of these methods. Among the methods tested, Taylor and Slatkin's formula and Paloheimo's formula were most reliable for the experimental data. 4. Further analyses of three of the methods were made using computer simulations of growth of age-structured populations with initially unstable age distributions. These analyses show that the time interval between sampling strongly influences the reliability of birth and death rate estimates. At a sampling interval of 2.5 days (equal to the duration of the egg stage), Paloheimo's formula was most accurate. At longer intervals (7.5–10 days), Taylor and Slatkin's formula which includes information on population structure was most accurate

An Anglo-Saxon execution cemetery at Walkington Wold, Yorkshire

This paper presents a re-evaluation of a cemetery excavated over 30 years ago at Walkington Wold in east Yorkshire. The cemetery is characterized by careless burial on diverse alignments, and by the fact that most of the skeletons did not have associated crania. The cemetery has been variously described as being the result of an early post-Roman massacre, as providing evidence for a ‘Celtic’ head cult or as an Anglo-Saxon execution cemetery. In order to resolve the matter, radiocarbon dates were acquired and a re-examination of the skeletal remains was undertaken. It was confirmed that the cemetery was an Anglo-Saxon execution cemetery, the only known example from northern England, and the site is set into its wider context in the paper

Weighted norm inequalities for polynomial expansions associated to some measures with mass points

Fourier series in orthogonal polynomials with respect to a measure $\nu$ on $[-1,1]$ are studied when $\nu$ is a linear combination of a generalized Jacobi weight and finitely many Dirac deltas in $[-1,1]$. We prove some weighted norm inequalities for the partial sum operators $S_n$, their maximal operator $S^*$ and the commutator $[M_b, S_n]$, where $M_b$ denotes the operator of pointwise multiplication by b \in \BMO. We also prove some norm inequalities for $S_n$ when $\nu$ is a sum of a Laguerre weight on $\R^+$ and a positive mass on $0$

The STRATAA study protocol: a programme to assess the burden of enteric fever in Bangladesh, Malawi and Nepal using prospective population census, passive surveillance, serological studies and healthcare utilisation surveys.

Introduction Invasive infections caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi and Paratyphi A are estimated to account for 12–27 million febrile illness episodes worldwide annually. Determining the true burden of typhoidal Salmonellae infections is hindered by lack of population-based studies and adequate laboratory diagnostics. The Strategic Typhoid alliance across Africa and Asia study takes a systematic approach to measuring the age-stratified burden of clinical and subclinical disease caused by typhoidal Salmonellae infections at three high-incidence urban sites in Africa and Asia. We aim to explore the natural history of Salmonella transmission in endemic settings, addressing key uncertainties relating to the epidemiology of enteric fever identified through mathematical models, and enabling optimisation of vaccine strategies. Methods/design Using census-defined denominator populations of ≥100 000 individuals at sites in Malawi, Bangladesh and Nepal, the primary outcome is to characterise the burden of enteric fever in these populations over a 24-month period. During passive surveillance, clinical and household data, and laboratory samples will be collected from febrile individuals. In parallel, healthcare utilisation and water, sanitation and hygiene surveys will be performed to characterise healthcare-seeking behaviour and assess potential routes of transmission. The rates of both undiagnosed and subclinical exposure to typhoidal Salmonellae (seroincidence), identification of chronic carriage and population seroprevalence of typhoid infection will be assessed through age-stratified serosurveys performed at each site. Secondary attack rates will be estimated among household contacts of acute enteric fever cases and possible chronic carriers. Ethics and dissemination This protocol has been ethically approved by the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee, the icddr,b Institutional Review Board, the Malawian National Health Sciences Research Committee and College of Medicine Research Ethics Committee and Nepal Health Research Council. The study is being conducted in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and Good Clinical Practice. Informed consent was obtained before study enrolment. Results will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences. Trial registration number ISRCTN 12131979. Ethics references Oxford (Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee 39-15). Bangladesh (icddr,b Institutional Review Board PR-15119). Malawi (National Health Sciences Research Committee 15/5/1599). Nepal (Nepal Health Research Council 306/2015)

Salmonella Typhi stool shedding by enteric fever patients and asymptomatic chronic carriers in an endemic urban setting.

The burden of Salmonella Typhi shedding in stool and its contribution to transmission in endemic settings is unknown. During passive surveillance S. Typhi shedding was seen during convalescence in 332 bacteremic typhoid patients although none persisted at one-year follow-up. Anti-Vi-IgG titres were measured in age-stratified cohort of serosurveillance participants. Systematic stool sampling of 303 participants with high anti-Vi-IgG titres identified one asymptomatic carrier shedding. These findings suggest ongoing S. Typhi transmission in this setting is more likely to occur from acute convalescent cases although better approaches are needed to identify true chronic carriers in the community to enable typhoid elimination

The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC): Vaccine effectiveness study designs: Accelerating the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines and reducing the global burden of enteric fever. Report from a meeting held on 26-27 October 2016, Oxford, UK

Typhoid fever is estimated to cause between 11.9–26.9 million infections globally each year with 129,000–216,510 deaths. Access to improved water sources have reduced disease incidence in parts of the world but the use of efficacious vaccines is seen as an important public health tool for countries with a high disease burden. A new generation of Vi typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs), licensed for use in young children and expected to provide longer lasting protection than previous vaccines, are now available. The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) has convened a working group to review the evidence on TCVs and produce an updated WHO position paper for all typhoid vaccines in 2018 that will inform Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's future vaccine investment strategies for TCVs. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) has been formed through a $36.9 million funding program from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to accelerate the introduction of TCVs into Gavi-eligible countries. In October 2016, a meeting was held to initiate planning of TCV effectiveness studies that will provide the data required by policy makers and stakeholders to support decisions on TCV use in countries with a high typhoid burden. Discussion topics included (1) the latest evidence and data gaps in typhoid epidemiology; (2) WHO and Gavi methods and data requirements; (3) data on TCV efficacy; (4) cost effectiveness analysis for TCVs from mathematical models; (5) TCV delivery and effectiveness study design. Specifically, participants were asked to comment on study design in 3 sites for which population-based typhoid surveillance is underway. The conclusion of the meeting was that country-level decision making would best be informed by the respective selected sites in Africa and Asia vaccinating children aged from 9-months to 15-years-old, employing either an individual or cluster randomized design with design influenced by population characteristics, transmission dynamics, and statistical considerations

An integrated crisis communication framework for strategic crisis communication with the media: A case study on a financial services provider

In order for organisations to survive in an ever-changing milieu in the current business environment, sufficient crisis communication and management practices need to be in place to ensure organisational survival. Despite the latter, organisational crises are often inefficiently managed which could be ascribed to the lack of managing crises strategically (Kash & Darling 1998:180). This article explores the lack of strategic crisis communication processes to ensure effective crisis communication with the media as stakeholder group. It is argued that the media is one of the main influences of public opinion (Pollard & Hotho 2006:725), thereby emphasising the need for accurate distribution of information. Furthermore, the study will focus specifically on the financial industry, as it is believed that this industry is more sensitive and thus more prone towards media reporting as financial services providers manage people’s money (Squier 2009). A strategic crisis communication process with the media is therefore proposed, facilitated through an integrated crisis communication framework, which focuses on a combination of Integrated Communication (IC) literature with emphasis on Grunig’s theory of communication excellence to build sustainable media relationships through two-way communication; and proposing a crisis communication process that has proactive, reactive and post-evaluative crisis communication stages, thereby moving away from crisis communication as a predominant reactive function.Communication Scienc

A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large‐scale facility‐based passive surveillance data

Decisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty. Lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets contribute to difficulties in calculating age-specific population-level typhoid incidence. Using data from the Strategic Typhoid Alliance across Africa and Asia program, we integrated demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility-based surveillance, and serological surveillance from Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh to account for under-detection of cases. We developed a Bayesian approach that adjusts the count of reported blood-culture-positive cases for blood culture detection, blood culture collection, and healthcare seeking—and how these factors vary by age—while combining information from prior published studies. We validated the model using simulated data. The ratio of observed to adjusted incidence rates was 7.7 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.0-12.4) in Malawi, 14.4 (95% CrI: 9.3-24.9) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CrI: 5.6-9.2) in Bangladesh. The probability of blood culture collection led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most in Nepal and Bangladesh; adjustment factors varied by age. Adjusted incidence rates were within or below the seroincidence rate limits of typhoid infection. Estimates of blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever without these adjustments results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid fever. Our approach allows each phase of the reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty, which can inform decision-making for typhoid prevention and control

A monovalent chimpanzee adenovirus Ebola vaccine boosted with MVA

BACKGROUND The West African outbreak of Ebola virus disease that peaked in 2014 has caused more than 11,000 deaths. The development of an effective Ebola vaccine is a priority for control of a future outbreak. METHODS In this phase 1 study, we administered a single dose of the chimpanzee adenovirus 3 (ChAd3) vaccine encoding the surface glycoprotein of Zaire ebolavirus (ZEBOV) to 60 healthy adult volunteers in Oxford, United Kingdom. The vaccine was administered in three dose levels — 1×1010 viral particles, 2.5×1010 viral particles, and 5×1010 viral particles — with 20 participants in each group. We then assessed the effect of adding a booster dose of a modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) strain, encoding the same Ebola virus glyco- protein, in 30 of the 60 participants and evaluated a reduced prime–boost interval in another 16 participants. We also compared antibody responses to inactivated whole Ebola virus virions and neutralizing antibody activity with those observed in phase 1 studies of a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus–based vaccine expressing a ZEBOV glycoprotein (rVSV-ZEBOV) to determine relative potency and assess durability. RESULTS No safety concerns were identified at any of the dose levels studied. Four weeks after immunization with the ChAd3 vaccine, ZEBOV-specific antibody responses were similar to those induced by rVSV-ZEBOV vaccination, with a geometric mean titer of 752 and 921, respectively. ZEBOV neutralization activity was also similar with the two vaccines (geo- metric mean titer, 14.9 and 22.2, respectively). Boosting with the MVA vector increased virus-specific antibodies by a factor of 12 (geometric mean titer, 9007) and increased glycoprotein-specific CD8+ T cells by a factor of 5. Significant increases in neutralizing antibodies were seen after boosting in all 30 participants (geometric mean titer, 139; P<0.001). Virus-specific antibody responses in participants primed with ChAd3 remained positive 6 months after vaccination (geometric mean titer, 758) but were significantly higher in those who had received the MVA booster (geometric mean titer, 1750; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The ChAd3 vaccine boosted with MVA elicited B-cell and T-cell immune responses to ZEBOV that were superior to those induced by the ChAd3 vaccine alone. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02240875.

Burden of enteric fever at three urban sites in Africa and Asia: a multicentre population-based study

Background Enteric fever is a serious public health concern in many low-income and middle-income countries. Numerous data gaps exist concerning the epidemiology of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi (S Paratyphi), which are the causative agents of enteric fever. We aimed to determine the burden of enteric fever in three urban sites in Africa and Asia. Methods In this multicentre population-based study, we did a demographic census at three urban sites in Africa (Blantyre, Malawi) and Asia (Kathmandu, Nepal and Dhaka, Bangladesh) between June 1, 2016, and Sept 25, 2018. Households were selected randomly from the demographic census. Participants from within the geographical census area presenting to study health-care facilities were approached for recruitment if they had a history of fever for 72 h or more (later changed to >48 h) or temperature of 38·0°C or higher. Facility-based passive surveillance was done between Nov 11, 2016, and Dec 31, 2018, with blood-culture collection for febrile illness. We also did a community-based serological survey to obtain data on Vi-antibody defined infections. We calculated crude incidence for blood-culture-confirmed S Typhi and S Paratyphi infection, and calculated adjusted incidence and seroincidence of S Typhi blood-culture-confirmed infection. Findings 423 618 individuals were included in the demographic census, contributing 626 219 person-years of observation for febrile illness surveillance. 624 S Typhi and 108 S Paratyphi A isolates were collected from the blood of 12 082 febrile patients. Multidrug resistance was observed in 44% S Typhi isolates and fluoroquinolone resistance in 61% of S Typhi isolates. In Blantyre, the overall crude incidence of blood-culture confirmed S Typhi was 58 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 48–70); the adjusted incidence was 444 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% credible interval [CrI] 347–717). The corresponding rates were 74 (95% CI 62–87) and 1062 (95% CrI 683–1839) in Kathmandu, and 161 (95% CI 145–179) and 1135 (95% CrI 898–1480) in Dhaka. S Paratyphi was not found in Blantyre; overall crude incidence of blood-culture-confirmed S Paratyphi A infection was 6 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 3–11) in Kathmandu and 42 (95% CI 34–52) in Dhaka. Seroconversion rates for S Typhi infection per 100 000 person-years estimated from anti-Vi seroconversion episodes in serological surveillance were 2505 episodes (95% CI 1605–3727) in Blantyre, 7631 (95% CI 5913–9691) in Kathmandu, and 3256 (95% CI 2432–4270) in Dhaka. Interpretation High disease incidence and rates of antimicrobial resistance were observed across three different transmission settings and thus necessitate multiple intervention strategies to achieve global control of these pathogens. Funding Wellcome Trust and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation